Baseball Prospectus predicts the Reds win the Central!!

[Ga_Red]

2/09/07

[reds44]

And there was another sign. Ken Griffey Jr. didn't play due to a tight left quadriceps, but he dutifully took the lineup card to the umpires before the game, his seventh straight trip, his seventh straight victory.

"Yeah, I'll be doing it tonight, too (taking the lineup card to the umpires)," he said. "Somebody has to drive this bus."

"Actually, we played really well, but it isn't the best we can play," said Aurilia. "We can still play better defense, play better all-around. We're confident going home."

[KronoRed]

Shame Baseball Prospectus are just a bunch of statheads

[TeamCasey]

Reds pound Cardinals again, roar into first-place tie
By Hal McCoy

Staff Writer

ST. LOUIS | Rich Aurilia furnished the brawn and the brains, first destroying the St. Louis Cardinals physically with his baseball bat and then verbally putting the past 10 days into pleasant perspective.

Aurilia's four hits and five RBIs were an indelible mark stamped on the Cardinals on Wednesday night in Busch Stadium during a 7-4 Cincinnati victory that vaulted the Reds into a first place tie with the Cardinals.

"It sounds fine to us, but a lot of people are going to pick up the paper and read that we're in first place and say, 'What the hell is that?'" said Aurilia. "What's going on?"

Yeah, what the hell is that and what is going on?

The Reds started this nine-game road trip five games out of first place, five games behind the Cardinals in the National League Central.

The Doubting Thomases and the Naysaying Neds predicted by the time they soiled their 10 days worth of clothes in their suitcases and returned to Cincinnati, their tails would not only be tucked between their legs, they would be snipped off.

And when they lost their first two games in Chicago, heads nodded and ol' Tom and ol' Ned said, "We told you so."

But St. Louis lost on those two days, too, and from that day the Reds didn't lose again over seven games and the Cardinals kept losing.

"After the disastrous second game we played in Chicago, we really bounced back and played well, pitched well, got on base, got key hits," Aurilia said. "To go to three cities that are tough to win at (Chicago, Houston, St. Louis), but to sweep two (Houston, St. Louis), that's pretty special."

Said manager Jerry Narron, "I just wanted to see us play some clean baseball after that second loss in Chicago. We played so poorly."

In seven games, that five-game St. Louis lead evaporated into the roily waters of the Mississippi when the Reds completed the sweep.

Maybe the Web site Baseball Prospectus knows something. Using its computer this week to play the rest of the season over and over, it determined that the Reds will win the division.

How are they doing it? The way the Cardinals always do it — beat the bejabbers out of the NL Central. The Reds are 24-12 against their NL Central brethren while the Cardinals are 14-17.

"If you want to win your division, you have to play well in your division," said Narron. "You play so many games within your division you just have to do well."

And Baseball Prospectus? "Yeah, I like that," said Narron. "If our pitching stays healthy and our bullpen holds up, we can stay right on top."

The Reds finished 7-2 on this trip through Chicago (1-2), Houston (3-0) and St. Louis (3-0).

When they swept the Astros, it was their first series win in Minute Maid Park after losing the previous seven series, during which they were 3-19.

When they swept the Cardinals, it was their first series win in St. Louis after losing the previous nine series, during which they were 6-19.

"To go into Houston and sweep three and to go into St. Louis and sweep three, win six in a row in those two cities, it is not easy to do," said Narron. "It's tough to win games against those two teams anywhere because they are the best two teams in the division."

The Reds, too, eh?

If that isn't a good omen, then there isn't a beer can in St. Louis.

And there was another sign. Ken Griffey Jr. didn't play due to a tight left quadriceps, but he dutifully took the lineup card to the umpires before the game, his seventh straight trip, his seventh straight victory.

"Yeah, I'll be doing it tonight, too (taking the lineup card to the umpires)," he said. "Somebody has to drive this bus."

The bus continues tonight in Great American Ball Park with the first of a four-game series against the Chicago Cubs, then two against the Milwaukee Brewers, then three interleague games against the Chicago White Sox.

On Wednesday, the Reds gave starter Aaron Harang a 7-0 lead over previously unbeaten Sidney Ponson. Aurilia, playing third base for the injured Edwin Encarnacion, tied career highs with four hits and five RBIs, three coming on a home run in the sixth.

Aurilia also drove in a run in the third with a single and a run in the fifth with a double.

Harang took a three-hitter into the sixth but gave up five straight hits and three runs after he retired the first two batters. Relievers Chris Hammond, David Weathers and Todd Coffey took it the rest of the way.

"It was a great team effort tonight," said Narron. "Harang pitched extremely well early and got two outs in the sixth, but couldn't get the last one. Scott Hatteberg (two hits, two RBIs) and Aurilia in the middle of the order did some damage, with Ryan Freel (two doubles, two runs) and Felipe Lopez (two walks, two runs) getting on base at the top of the order."

Actually, the series was total domination, as the Reds had runners on base in 22 of the 27 innings and had 38 hits, 18 for extra bases.

"Actually, we played really well, but it isn't the best we can play," said Aurilia. "We can still play better defense, play better all-around. We're confident going home."

[redsmetz]

"Actually, we played really well, but it isn't the best we can play," said Aurilia. "We can still play better defense, play better all-around. We're confident going home."

Here is a tremendous difference in this team - its attitude. I hear it from more and more players. We can do better, this isn't good enough yet, there's room for improvement. - Not satisfied with just good enough. I think Kearns said it in the Sports Weekly article. The previous regime said for them to be competitive, this regime said they're here to win. A world of difference.

[Coffeybro]

Updated Playoff odds.

Average wins by position in NL Central: 92.8 86.4 80.9 75.8 70.5 64.3

NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         35   24   .501   86.8   75.2   33.52350   10.95279   44.47629
Reds              35   24   .521   89.4   72.6   52.68370    9.26524   61.94894
Astros            29   31   .458   76.0   86.0    3.01064    1.34846    4.35910
Brewers           28   32   .503   80.5   81.5   10.08635    4.06848   14.15484
Cubs              23   35   .445   69.4   92.6     .44705     .15837     .60542
Pirates           22   38   .454   68.5   93.5     .24876     .09287     .34163

Looks like last nights win was huge statistically too.

[princeton]

the pressure builds when you actually think that you should win.

winning predictions like BP's could be the kiss of death for this team

[redsfan30]

Originally Posted by princeton

winning predictions like BP's could be the kiss of death for this team

If predictions actually had any bearing on reality, this team would be in the same shape as Kansas City is right now.

Luckily, it doesn't.

[IslandRed]

We all know the reasons why this may not hold up. But then, the rest of the division doesn't have any sure things, either. We keep playing good ball into July, Castellini gives the go-ahead for a big deal of some sort, and who knows?

[princeton]

Originally Posted by IslandRed

We all know the reasons why this may not hold up. But then, the rest of the division doesn't have any sure things, either. We keep playing good ball into July, Castellini gives the go-ahead for a big deal of some sort, and who knows?

we knows.

[pedro]

they also had an artcile yesterday called :

Prospectus Today: OBP Is Life

[Reds Nd2]

Originally Posted by pedro

they also had an artcile yesterday called :

Prospectus Today: OBP Is Life

I liked the Prospectus Today article from last week called Perspective. Here is an excerpt from the article.

…what my point is, is that the boring, annoying truth about baseball is that it can fool us for longer than we’re comfortable with. We latch on to five-game winning streaks and hot months and even entire halfs, but history shows us, with considerable frequency, that teams make sudden left turns all the time. Of the eight teams in playoff positions a year ago, four ended up playing in the postseason. Of those, the White Sox and Cardinals were the two best teams in the game, the Braves held on in a clustered division, and the Padres actually played below-.500 ball over the last four months, but won the NL West anyway.

So when you look at the standings this morning, remember the 2005 Orioles and Rangers, and think about those Astros and A’s. And when some team plays .800 ball this month, let last year’s Nationals guide your analysis of the situation. The game is just too complicated to let the desire for a good story get in the way of learning what’s really going on.

[vaticanplum]

Originally Posted by Reds Nd2

The game is just too complicated to let the desire for a good story get in the way of learning what’s really going on.[/I]

I dunno, as a Reds fan, I'll take a good story over what's really going on any day of the week.

[Reds Nd2]

Originally Posted by vaticanplum

I dunno, as a Reds fan, I'll take a good story over what's really going on any day of the week.

Yep, sometimes it's best not to know.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by princeton

the pressure builds when you actually think that you should win.

winning predictions like BP's could be the kiss of death for this team

On the flip side -- nothing builds confidence like going through a dead month like May and coming out the other end with a surge to open June and catapult into 1st place.

The one glimmer of hope I see for this team is that, despite their good record, they do have quite a few players playing under their potential and norms. No better example than Harang last night -- his DIPS ERA is actually lower than his actual ERA at this point. If Hume & Co. could just figure out what the hell is wrong with Brandon Claussen (other than the apparent lack of ability), the team could possibly even weather Eric Milton's eventual plunge back into the toilet.