sean watson's recent struggles

[REDblooded]

Do you guys think it's due to the jump in levels? I'm of the belief that maybe, as a college closer converted to a starter, that he's having a bit of a bout of tired arm.

[icehole3]

He struggles at every level this is no different

[camisadelgolf]

In this case, I think fatigue is a factor (he's never thrown this many innings before). He struggles at every level? You're being sarcastic, right?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

In this case, I think fatigue is a factor (he's never thrown this many innings before). He struggles at every level? You're being sarcastic, right?

Technically he really struggled at Dayton last year. This year, not so much. I think you are right with the innings and fatigue factor.

[REDblooded]

Kinda makes me wonder, if this guy could potentially run into problems with fatigue, and the Reds having 4 potential relatively long-term options (Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto, with Dumatrait and Livingston being possibilities as well) why aren't we just grooming this kid to close? He's done it before, so he has to have the mentality for it, and he has the type of stuff that misses bats. Not to mention, it fills a major organizational need.

[camisadelgolf]

Sean Watson sure didn't struggle at Billings.

As for a future closer, I like Josh Roenicke. This is only his second year of professional baseball, and he's already in AA with a K ratio of 12.8/9IP.

[Superdude]

why aren't we just grooming this kid to close? He's done it before, so he has to have the mentality for it, and he has the type of stuff that misses bats. Not to mention, it fills a major organizational need.

Because he's got enough pitch selection to start and has yet to prove he can't do it. Just because we might project to have a decent rotation in a few years doesn't mean we should take every promising pitching prospect and groom them as late inning relievers.

[REDblooded]

Originally Posted by Superdude

Because he's got enough pitch selection to start and has yet to prove he can't do it. Just because we might project to have a decent rotation in a few years doesn't mean we should take every promising pitching prospect and groom them as late inning relievers.

That's not what I'm saying at all. I'm simply saying that I believe Watson has a better chance at developing into a dominant closer than he does of developing into a dominant starter. He closed in college, and should be able to do it in the majors if he continues his development with what he has in his arsenal.

[REDblooded]

and so it doesn't get confused, I'm pretty high on Watson, and am certainly hoping it's just fatigue related.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by REDblooded

That's not what I'm saying at all. I'm simply saying that I believe Watson has a better chance at developing into a dominant closer than he does of developing into a dominant starter. He closed in college, and should be able to do it in the majors if he continues his development with what he has in his arsenal.

I think I agree with this and the Reds are going to have to make one of the more highly regarded starters a pen arm at some point or the pen will never get fixed correctly. In general though, IMO its better to let them stay starters as long as possible and let them fully develop stuff and stamina.

[Tony Cloninger]

How about developing a super middle reliever?

A Scott Sullivan....Wayne Granger type.

Someone who can go every other day ...2 innings....or work 3-4 days in a row....about 1-2 innings?

You save roster spots for better bench players.....and eliminate the likes of Ricky Stones....go back to an 11 man pitching staff at least.

I DO NOT mean this to imply that for Watson......but there has to be an alternative to the lack of a good long...middle reliever.
Not every starter can go 7-8......at best you have 2 on your staff who do that consistently........So you need at least 1 or 2 guys who can go the 7th and 8th....instead of this 1 and done stuff which forces you to rely on more pitchers.....and that means less quality.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by REDblooded

That's not what I'm saying at all. I'm simply saying that I believe Watson has a better chance at developing into a dominant closer than he does of developing into a dominant starter. He closed in college, and should be able to do it in the majors if he continues his development with what he has in his arsenal.

Refer to this post I wrote up on the Dayton (4/20) Game I watched.

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Just getting around to watching the April 20th game. Sean Watson is the starter again but this time it won't be 35 degrees, 68 degrees and NE winds @ 8 MPH at the start of the game.

Observations, Notes;

I heard Browning say this in regards to the FO hopes on Watson "I think they wanted him to build up his arm strength" because of his last yr at Tenn only getting to throw 1 to 2 IP at a time. And "They have high hopes for him to progress through the org and maybe be a starter, but eventually they probably have long range plans for him to be a reliever".

On Watson: Throws 1st pitch FB low and outside alot and for strikes quite often. Mixes up that 2nd pitch pretty good. And Throws that Knuckle Curve as his out pitch. And it's a good pitch as it has nice break and he seems to throw it w/o "showing it" with his arm speed much. However he seems to have little answer for opponents who lay off his KNC with 2 strikes, which he seems to always throw with 2 strikes. When that occurs it also seems to throw off his concentration or disrupts his rythym. His line 5 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 10 K's 1 BB and 1 Hit Batter.

[camisadelgolf]

Can someone please explain to me why he reminds me of Roger Clemens? When I see him pitch, Clemens is who I think of (but obviously, he doesn't have Clemens' stuff or power).

[REDblooded]

Thanks for that Mario-Rijo. Certainly clears things up a bit for me.

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by REDblooded

I'm simply saying that I believe Watson has a better chance at developing into a dominant closer than he does of developing into a dominant starter.

Originally Posted by mth123

I think I agree with this and the Reds are going to have to make one of the more highly regarded starters a pen arm at some point or the pen will never get fixed correctly. In general though, IMO its better to let them stay starters as long as possible and let them fully develop stuff and stamina.

Generally speaking, almost any pitcher has a better chance of becoming a good closer than a good starter. Being a starter is hard. Which is why, if a guy has the building blocks to be one, you do what mth123 said -- you let him develop as a starter until you conclude he's not going to make it. To me, that means believing he won't, not just being unsure that he will. Then, and only then, should he be moved to the bullpen.

While it's possible that will happen with Watson, it's too early to conclude he can't. This is his first full season in pro ball and he's starting after being a college reliever. He's maintaining decent K/BB rates and ratios since his promotion. He's thrown a few too many gopher balls. Let's see how he adjusts.