Homer......

[RedsMan3203]

He has been pitching well so far this summer.... A surprise to some...

He has had 2 soild starts in AA so far... He is rocking....

Now, Here is my question...

Willis made the jump from the AA to the Majors in his Rookie year... He did pretty well... And still is... Besides... I think his numbers have dropped off the from the end of last year and the start of this year because he was so over worked at the start of last year....

So...

IF Homer looks ready by the end of July..... Should we bring him up?

We can do the same thing the Twins did (or are still doing) Francisco Liriano... Keeping him on a strict pitch count... Get him a taste of the big leagues... Lets see what he is made of?

Should the Reds take the bite? Or hold off for a bigger fish next year.

[KronoRed]

Lets see where he is at the end of July, if he's boxing good starts around bad ones I'd just leave him there for the rest of the year, if he's mowing everyone down..then maybe...

[RedsMan3203]

Krono - just wondering....

Do you ever sleep?

You must be like Chuck Norris and sleep with your eyes open and computer on.

[KronoRed]

I sleep

I just let Chris Denorfia use the computer while I do

[Aronchis]

Originally Posted by KronoRed

I sleep

I just let Chris Denorfia use the computer while I do

Oh, now I understand "you guys" posts. I just thought Kron had multiple personalities ...........

The Reds should not even think of calling up Bailey. Liriano was stuck down in AAA all last year as a 21 year old. I doubt Krivsky feels Bailey is physically ready to go yet, at least pitching September and MAYBE October.

[Outshined_One]

This is a really dangerous proposition for the Reds and Homer.

First off, Dontrelle Willis' case is a really rare one. When the Marlins called him up, he had only made 6 starts at AA that season (with some solid numbers). However, one fact that should be taken into account is the fact that, in the previous season, he made only 5 starts in High A. When the Marlins called him up, he had only accumulated 66.1 IP above Low A. For a guy following his developmental track, that is usually a really bad proposition.

Yet, it worked out incredibly well for the Marlins. Willis and Cabrera (who was a midseason callup from AA, where he was handling the league quite well) were two of the big reasons why they won the World Series this year. They're two of the top young players in baseball today and will be highly sought-after during the trade deadline and (if they're still available) during this upcoming offseason.

Here's the problem. There is a really good reason why the majority of teams do not call up guys who have limited experience and success at AA. These guys are still unfinished products. They need to continue to make the necessary adjustments to the more advanced hitting they will face. Some guys can blaze through the league with little problem, others need time and coaching...and still others flame out. While Homer has done very well in his first two starts, it remains to be seen if he can keep this up. Giving the guy another month to make that decision seems like a risky proposition, even if it is for limited bullpen duty.

Here's the other problem. Some people may disagree with my sentiments on this issue, but I think it's intuitive and helpful for minor leaguers.

There is something to be said for helping build up a guy's confidence and endurance over the course of a season. Homer's basic line last season at Dayton was 103 IP, 4.43 ERA, 5 HR, and 125/62 K/BB. Good overall numbers, all things considered. This season, between High A and AA, he's at 82.2 IP, 2.85 ERA, 6 HR, and 92/24 K/BB. That's a significant step up. He will almost definitely pitch more innings this year than the total amount in his professional career before this year (116 IP). He will likely reach a number of firsts this year.

Willis, on the other hand, already had built up a good history of success and endurancein his previous minor league seasons. He pitched 157.2 innings in 2002 and showed little in the way of slowing down at season's end. Between those two stops, he totaled a 1.83 ERA, 5 HR, and 128/24 K/BB along with those IP numbers. The Marlins already knew he could be counted on to pitch those innings without much in the way of worrying about it since he had already proven he could pitch that much without much, if any, ill effects.

Comparing those two, would the Reds really want to bring Homer up to the bullpen where it would be harder to monitor his pitch counts and give him regular usage? Also, it could be potentially troubling for him in terms of his confidence. Maybe he has great stuff for AA, but what about the majors? It could be an utter disaster if the Reds brought him up and he proceeded to flop, especially in the midst of a playoff race.

Keep in mind the different situations that you're talking about here. When the Marlins called up Willis, everyone thought they were toast. McKeon was supposed to be an interim manager. The young guys were called up because the front office decided it would be best to throw them into the fire and see what they were made of. At first, there was no pressure on these guys because everyone thought they were going to finish under .500 and no one would care. However, with the success they had, things turned out much, much differently than what almost anyone expected.

With the Reds, Bailey would be coming into a pressure situation. The Reds' bullpen is already a mess. Would it be fair for the Reds to call up their top prospect and put that kind of pressure on him, intentional or not? If he screws up, then the fans and media will turn against him (and the front office!), he loses confidence in his ability to get guys out, and it basically turns out to be a debacle. If he succeeds, the temptation to make him the go-to guy in the first season he's ever thrown more than 103 innings would be problematic. Bullpen work involves less innings, but it also involves throwing harder than starting due to endurance. Those kinds of situations can lead to really bad arm injuries.

So, in essence, if the front office does it, they better be as humanly careful as possible with him.

[chicoruiz]

Remember, as soon as you call him up you're starting the clock on his eligibility for arbitration and free agency. And the younger he is when he hits free agency the more dollars he can expect to attract from other teams.

[dabvu2498]

Originally Posted by chicoruiz

Remember, as soon as you call him up you're starting the clock on his eligibility for arbitration and free agency. And the younger he is when he hits free agency the more dollars he can expect to attract from other teams.

Delmon Young says hello.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by chicoruiz

Remember, as soon as you call him up you're starting the clock on his eligibility for arbitration and free agency.

at this point of the season it depends on when you would project him to be up next year. What you really want to avoid is allowing a good young player to be one of those that fall in the "super two" category for arbitration purposes.

[kaldaniels]

While I don't expect him to continue to be this Red-hot in AA, supposing he still fairs well...I would say the odds would now be in favor of a 2007 debut rather than 2008 as most around here seem to think. If we are contending seriously down the strecth, I can see him in a Reds uni this year.

[redsfan30]

I let him finish the year at Double A, then call him up this September.

Now before anyone jumps down my throat, I don't bring him up to pitch. I bring him up to sit and learn. I bring him up to take in the in's and out's of a Major League ballgame. He can throw all the side sessions he wants, but I don't let him take the mound this season.

Then I start him at Louisville next season, and if he responds then you bring him up around this time next year and leave him there for 10 years.

[LoganBuck]

Originally Posted by redsfan30

I let him finish the year at Double A, then call him up this September.

Now before anyone jumps down my throat, I don't bring him up to pitch. I bring him up to sit and learn. I bring him up to take in the in's and out's of a Major League ballgame. He can throw all the side sessions he wants, but I don't let him take the mound this season.

Then I start him at Louisville next season, and if he responds then you bring him up around this time next year and leave him there for 10 years.

They can do that without letting him onto the roster. I like this idea alot once Chattanooga is done.

[IslandRed]

Something that's been pointed out before -- if he stays at Chattanooga the rest of the year, he'll be pitching in the Southern League playoffs since the Lookouts won the first-half division title. That would be good for him, I think.

[Cedric]

Originally Posted by redsfan30

I let him finish the year at Double A, then call him up this September.

Now before anyone jumps down my throat, I don't bring him up to pitch. I bring him up to sit and learn. I bring him up to take in the in's and out's of a Major League ballgame. He can throw all the side sessions he wants, but I don't let him take the mound this season.

Then I start him at Louisville next season, and if he responds then you bring him up around this time next year and leave him there for 10 years.

It's just baseball. People over analyze the in's and out's of a major league baseball game.