Three Reds Mentioned in 'This Week in Prospects'

[camisadelgolf]

http://calltothepen.com/2010/07/29/t...rson-and-more/

Donnie Joseph, LHP, Reds (High-A)—While we’re on the subject of future closers, let’s talk about Joseph, who’s right there with Braves lefty Tim Collins as the most dominant lefty reliever in the minors.
Cincinnati’s 3rd-rounder in the 2009 draft has put up numbers that just about anyone would envy across the two A-ball levels. In 48 2/3 innings, he’s allowed just 25 hits, 10 runs (8 earned), and just two homers, while walking 20 and striking out a whopping 85.
Joseph’s nailed down 17 saves on the year and projects to be a rare lefthanded closer in the majors. He throws a fastball in the low 90’s that can get up to 95-96 on occasion, and he throws a wipeout slider as well. Not quite Billy Wagner-level stuff, I suppose, but better than that of Mike Gonzalez or George Sherrill.
Joseph profiles as a Gonzalez type with better control and, hopefully, fewer injuries.

Yonder Alonso, 1B, Reds (AAA)—The Reds entered 2010 not quite knowing how they would fit Alonso and Joey Votto into the lineup together.
That problem is now far on the backburner, though, as Alonso has failed to distinguish himself in Triple-A and clearly isn’t ready to play an offensively challenging position in the majors.
Granted, a .277/.324/.417 line isn’t exactly terrible, but it shows a lack of secondary skills (walks and power) that is very troubling from a first baseman. Alonso has just 19 walks and seven homers in 69 games. The walks have dropped off considerably since his promotion from Double-A, where he walked 19 times in just 31 games, and the power wasn’t there even in Double-A, where he slugged just .406.
At 23, Alonso isn’t the sort of guy who’s all that young for his level, so to be a future MLB starter, he has to produce more than this, particularly in the power department. Low-power first basemen don’t survive very long, and while left field might be an option for him, defensively-challenged low-power left fielders aren’t exactly treasured commodities themselves.
Right now, Alonso profiles more as a Doug Mientkiewicz type with a worse glove. I thought he was an overdraft when he was picked seventh overall in 2008 (ahead of Justin Smoak, for one), and Alonso has done little to change my opinion.

Juan Duran, OF, Reds (Rookie)—Not to pile on Cincinnati fans this week (hey, at least Joseph is good news), but Duran, a highly-acclaimed international signee in 2008, continues to have huge trouble making contact in the low minors.
The 6’7” Dominican behemoth hit just .177 in the GCL last year. He’s doing slightly better in the higher-level Pioneer league, hitting .211/.289/.321, but Duran has whiffed 39 times in 28 games and continues to show remarkably little power for a player with his size and leverage.
Unlike Alonso, Duran is young for his level, turning 19 in a month, so he has time to figure out his swing, recognize breaking balls, and make other adjustments. But we’re now on year three of his career (he played in the Dominican Summer League in 2008), and he has yet to hit .220 or slug .325 in a season.

It looks to me that the site generally does a good-but-not-great job since they didn't acknowledge Yonder Alonso's injury and how well he's been doing lately. Check out the link if you want to read more about Tim Alderson, Jonathan Singleton, and a few more prospects.

[dougdirt]

What you said camis..... Alonso has absolutely been murdering the ball lately, hardly a good time to be suggesting he isn't doing much. I have never seen a report of Donnie Joseph touching 95-96 MPH.

[bucksfan2]

Doug I read somewhere that Alonso has been moved off LF and back to 1b or DH. Is that true? And if so I have a feeling he won't be with the Reds for much longer.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Doug I read somewhere that Alonso has been moved off LF and back to 1b or DH. Is that true? And if so I have a feeling he won't be with the Reds for much longer.

Not to steal dougdirt's thunder, but it's absolutely true. It's been determined that Yonder Alonso is a first baseman and first baseman only.

[dougdirt]

Alonso last played in left field on July 6th. Not sure its been given up on entirely, but its looking less and less likely that he winds up there. He was making some progress though.

[cinreds21]

He was horrible in left. He ran around in circles. He is a first baseman/DH.

[cinreds21]

That's why I wish the Reds would trade him to TB for Brignac.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by cinreds21

That's why I wish the Reds would trade him to TB for Brignac.

Why, so they can have a shortstop that likely isn't an upgrade to a guy they already have in Zack Cozart? That doesn't make a ton of sense.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Why, so they can have a shortstop that likely isn't an upgrade to a guy they already have in Zack Cozart? That doesn't make a ton of sense.

Here are the Reds' shortstop options:
2011 - Zack Cozart, Paul Janish, Orlando Cabrera
2012 - Zack Cozart, Paul Janish, Kris Negron

I understand the thought, and a few months ago, I might've agreed with you, but if the Reds could replace Orlando Cabrera and Kris Negron with Reid Brignac, it could be a big upgrade and some much-needed depth up the middle. Brignac isn't my first choice, but I like the idea of trading Alonso for a major league-ready shortstop. If the Reds do an Alonso-for-Brignac deal, I'd expect Tampa to throw in some prospects, though.

[GIDP]

I would suggest that the trade market for SS is very under priced right now so much that Yonder for a SS would be a pretty big overpayment. There seems to be an influx of average hitting short stops with good gloves these days. Doesnt mean those guys are bad players but guys like Cozart and Brignac are about as good as a SS prospects go these days.

Id suggest that those guys are fairly replaceable or at least the difference between them and a lower tiered hitter isnt going to be huge.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Here are the Reds' shortstop options:
2011 - Zack Cozart, Paul Janish, Orlando Cabrera
2012 - Zack Cozart, Paul Janish, Kris Negron

I understand the thought, and a few months ago, I might've agreed with you, but if the Reds could replace Orlando Cabrera and Kris Negron with Reid Brignac, it could be a big upgrade and some much-needed depth up the middle. Brignac isn't my first choice, but I like the idea of trading Alonso for a major league-ready shortstop. If the Reds do an Alonso-for-Brignac deal, I'd expect Tampa to throw in some prospects, though.

So if we trade for Brignac, do we trade Cozart?

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

So if we trade for Brignac, do we trade Cozart?

Absolutely not. Whoever's better between Cozart and Brignac is the starter with the other being the backup middle infielder. Let's say Cozart's the starter. If he's injured, at least you can fall back on Reid Brignac and call up Paul Janish to back up. The Reds have better depth at first base than they do at shortstop, so they can afford to part with Yonder Alonso (not that I'm saying he should practically be given away). I say this because if Votto's injured, you can always call up Todd Frazier or Danny Dorn. But if Cozart or Janish is injured, who do you call up? Kris Negron? I don't know that I feel so good about that.

[cinreds21]

Reid isn't my first choice but it was the only thing I could come up with that would work. I'm not a big fan of Bartlett or I'd say him.

[Rojo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

So if we trade for Brignac, do we trade Cozart?

Do you hate up-the-middle depth? At this point, we're overvaluing Alonso.

[GIDP]

Originally Posted by Rojo

Do you hate up-the-middle depth? At this point, we're overvaluing Alonso.

Trading for a guy who is very similar to the guy you already have seems redundant to me.