Reds have their reasons for not rushing up Bailey

[OnBaseMachine]

Reds have their reasons for not rushing up Bailey
By Marc Katz

Mack Jenkins evoked the names of David Clyde and Todd Van Poppel, then he brought up Ryan Wagner.

It was all designed to mean don't expect to see Homer Bailey hurried along to the big leagues. Bailey just turned 20 on May 3.

"It's not the result," said Jenkins, the Reds minor league pitching coordinator. "It's the process."

So while Bailey is throwing 97-mph fastballs and shutting down Class AA Southern League opponents, he still has to work on other pitches, his quickness in delivering the ball to the plate, covering first base and other sundry skills.

"It's not how quick you make it to the majors," Reds field coordinator and former farm director Tim Naehring said. "It's how long you stay."

David Clyde was drafted as an 18-year-old by Texas in 1973, the first player taken. By the time he was finished in the majors at the tender age of 24, he had compiled an 18-33 record and 4.63 ERA.

Van Poppel was also a first-round pick. He was in the majors with the A's in 1991, the year after he was drafted, and still a teenager. Van Poppel lasted a bit longer in the majors — off and on through 2004 (he was with the Reds). But his overall record was just 40-52 with a 5.58 ERA. He's not going to the Hall of Fame.

Wagner was drafted in the first round by the Reds in 2003 out of the University of Houston and was considered nearly major-league ready.

He zoomed through the Reds' system, from Class AA Chattanooga (5 games) to Class AAA Louisville (4 games) to the Reds, where he was 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA in 17 games.

Wagner's ERA bloated to 4.70 in 2004 and 6.11 last season. He is now struggling at Louisville.

"Wagner had success, a lot of success," Jenkins said. "Then, he became too predictable. When all the scouting reports came in (from other teams), they said, 'If you see a slider, don't swing.' "

His slider was always just off the plate, a sucker pitch for batters because they couldn't reach it. When they stopped swinging, Wagner had to come over the plate with another more hittable pitch.

The learning process is the same with position players, and it isn't all about hitting. It's about fielding, too.

Votto, for instance, used to be a catcher. He has been working on playing first base, and the Reds want to make sure he has it right before they promote him to the big club. Of late, the Reds have had fielding problems.

"Joey needs work holding runners, fielding bunts, turning double plays," Reds assistant farm director Grant Griesser said. "And it's a lot better learning defense when you're swinging the bat well."

Votto is swinging the bat well in Chattanooga, where he is in contention for a triple crown.

Numbers are mostly the focus. There is more to it. Bailey and Votto will eventually make it to the majors, and soon.

Just not right now.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/sport...106inside.html

[edabbs44]

There's a lot of validity here, but the article gives the impression that it's a lock for a player to bomb if they make it to the majors early. How come players like Gooden (minus the nose candy), Pujols and Griffey Jr aren't given as examples?

I don't want Bailey to be brought up this season, but let's give a balanced argument here.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

There's a lot of validity here, but the article gives the impression that it's a lock for a player to bomb if they make it to the majors early. How come players like Gooden (minus the nose candy), Pujols and Griffey Jr aren't given as examples?

I don't want Bailey to be brought up this season, but let's give a balanced argument here.

To be fair, guys like Gooden/Pujols/Griffey are EXTREMELY rare. The vast majority of 'prospects' end up falling flat on their faces in their first exposure to MLB, and many of them are never able to make the adjustment.

Go back and read a Basball America Top 100 list from a decade ago and see how many of those 'future stars' you recognize. No matter which year you look at, two-thirds of 'em probably never became full-time starters in the majors, and of the remaining guys, the only a handful ever came anywhere close to reaching the 'ceiling' that BBA laid out for them. When it comes to prospects, it always best to err on the side of caution.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by CaptainHook

To be fair, guys like Gooden/Pujols/Griffey are EXTREMELY rare. The vast majority of 'prospects' end up falling flat on their faces in their first exposure to MLB, and many of them are never able to make the adjustment.

Go back and read a Basball America Top 100 list from a decade ago and see how many of those 'future stars' you recognize. No matter which year you look at, two-thirds of 'em probably never became full-time starters in the majors, and of the remaining guys, the only a handful ever came anywhere close to reaching the 'ceiling' that BBA laid out for them. When it comes to prospects, it always best to err on the side of caution.

True, but they are talking about rushing people as their main argument. There is no proof that the failures of Van Poppel, Clyde and Wagner were caused by rushing them. If they let them progress in the minors, who's to say they'd be HOFers?

[westofyou]

Not many guys pitch at the age of 20 or younger anymore, damn few in fact.

Since 1980

CAREER
1980-2005

AGE <= 20

INNINGS PITCHED                 IP     
1    Dwight Gooden             494.2   
2    Edwin Correa              212.2   
3    Fernando Valenzuela       210     
4    Rick Ankiel               208     
5    C.C. Sabathia             180.1   
6    Jeremy Bonderman          162     
7    Bret Saberhagen           157.2   
8    Zack Greinke              145     
9    Mike Witt                 129     
10   Jose Rijo                 126     
11   Storm Davis               100.2   
12   Steve Avery                99     
13   Oliver Perez               90     
14   Alex Fernandez             87.2   
15   Jeff D'Amico               86     
16   Gil Meche                  85.2   
17   Felix Hernandez            84.1   
18   Edwin Nunez                72.1   
19   Joel Davis                 71.1   
20   Jon Garland                69.2   
21   Mark Grant                 53.2   
22   Marcos Carvajal            53     
23   Bruce Robbins              51.2   
24   Mark Davis                 50     
25   Dennys Reyes               47

[RFS62]

It's not even about age. It's about an accurate assessment of their individual skills.

They ALL will make mistakes and have to learn how to come back from failure. I think that learning to overcome adversity is one of the prime tools that a player needs to have a long career. And it's a lot easier to learn that in the minors instead of on a national stage.

When I see a minor league player forced to struggle or adjust his approach, I see it as an opportunity to learn that indespensible skill early and not have to face failure for the first time later in the majors.

It's a blessing, not a curse. They all have to learn to overcome failure or adversity if they're going to stick in the bigs.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Not many guys pitch at the age of 20 or younger anymore, damn few in fact.

Since 1980

CAREER
1980-2005

AGE <= 20

INNINGS PITCHED                 IP     
1    Dwight Gooden             494.2   
2    Edwin Correa              212.2   
3    Fernando Valenzuela       210     
4    Rick Ankiel               208     
5    C.C. Sabathia             180.1   
6    Jeremy Bonderman          162     
7    Bret Saberhagen           157.2   
8    Zack Greinke              145     
9    Mike Witt                 129     
10   Jose Rijo                 126     
11   Storm Davis               100.2   
12   Steve Avery                99     
13   Oliver Perez               90     
14   Alex Fernandez             87.2   
15   Jeff D'Amico               86     
16   Gil Meche                  85.2   
17   Felix Hernandez            84.1   
18   Edwin Nunez                72.1   
19   Joel Davis                 71.1   
20   Jon Garland                69.2   
21   Mark Grant                 53.2   
22   Marcos Carvajal            53     
23   Bruce Robbins              51.2   
24   Mark Davis                 50     
25   Dennys Reyes               47

There are some solid names on there.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

There are some solid names on there.

Yep, it's a crap shoot.. how many still humming it at 30?

[edabbs44]

Bailey is 20 now, though. Isn't he?

[dougdirt]

yes he is.

[oregonred]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Yep, it's a crap shoot.. how many still humming it at 30?

Dennys Reyes -- too bad the Reds couldn't ever get a hold of that guy

For the prospect gurus -- Would Bonderman's promotion to the Tigers (or Sabathia's with the Tribe) a few years ago be the closest to Bailey in terms of where he is right about now? They were actually younger when promoted? Both of those guys are tough, can flat out deal and have provided nice benefits to their clubs. But, would another year of seasoning have made them consistently dominant?

Princeton made some great points in another thread. If a guy can give a small/mid market team 5-7 of their career seasons at an earlier age, especially when the timing is better with that franchise to match him up with a better talent window -- then why not? If they break down at an earlier age then otherwise might have happened -- it would by then become a Yankess or other big market team's FA contract problem child. May not be the best for the prospect, but that's the idiotic system the players association/owners created.

Think how the A's handled someone like Mulder -- great years in Oakland for playoff run after playoff run and then a second bonus of what appears to be a well timed trade leaving the Big Bad Cards holding a steaming old bag of poo on the other end.

I'm not saying bring him up now, but I'd give every open minded consideration for him to make the team out of Spring Training 2007. Harang + Arroyo + Bailey and suddenly you've got the makings of something pretty interesting.

[Doc. Scott]

There's only one answer to the question- it depends on the player.

If Bailey had command of three major-league pitches, he should be up and pitching in the Reds' rotation no matter how old he is.

But he doesn't, so he shouldn't. He has a killer fastball and two high-ceiling-but-inconsistent pitches he hasn't really had to use very much.

[lollipopcurve]

Harang + Arroyo + Bailey and suddenly you've got the makings of something pretty interesting.

I think another veteran is needed to push Bailey to the back of the rotation, keeping the demands/expectations on him relatively low. If the rumors of a blockbuster are true, and another solid 200 inning arm joins the rotation, I'll feel better about Homer being up sometime in 07.

[B]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I think another veteran is needed to push Bailey to the back of the rotation, keeping the demands/expectations on him relatively low. If the rumors of a blockbuster are true, and another solid 200 inning arm joins the rotation, I'll feel better about Homer being up sometime in 07.

Pushing him to the back of the rotation takes some pressure off him when he is called up , I think it is essential.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by oregonred

Princeton made some great points in another thread. If a guy can give a small/mid market team 5-7 of their career seasons at an earlier age, especially when the timing is better with that franchise to match him up with a better talent window -- then why not? If they break down at an earlier age then otherwise might have happened -- it would by then become a Yankess or other big market team's FA contract problem child.

That is one of the reason I am AGAINST promoting Bailey.

Most uber-young pitchers take their lumps for two or three years before they turn the corner and become above-average pitchers. Take your earlier example of Jeremy Bonderman. The Tigers basically let Bonderman develop for three years while in the majors and only now are they seeing any return on that investment. Bonderman's results from 2003-2005 ranged from atrocious to below-average, and now that he is finally starting to produce he is already in his arbitration years. Bonderman is about to get very expensive for the Tigers and only has two more years until he hits free agency.

I would much rather see the Reds let Bailey develop until he is a fininshed product and has nothing left to prove in the minors. Then, rather than getting nothing out of him while he is cheap, the Reds might be able to get some solid years out of him BEFORE he hits arbitration. If the Reds really want to get four or five good years out of Homer before he hits free agency, it would be in their best interest to wait until he has rounded out his skill-set.