Half Point Reds VORP leaders

[westofyou]

VORP

Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.

Here are the Reds top 10 batters and pitchers by VORP.

3 of the top 4 position players and the top pitcher are all Krivsky moves.

Ponder where the Reds would be if those performances weren't replaced with quality.

						VORP	 

1.	Brandon Phillips	CIN	2b	20.9
2.	Adam Dunn		CIN	lf	20.5
3.	Scott Hatteberg		CIN	1b	18.5
4.	Dave Ross		CIN	c	18.4
5.	Ryan Freel		CIN	cf	18.1
6.	Felipe Lopez		CIN	ss	16.7
7.	Austin Kearns		CIN	rf	14.9
8.	Ken Griffey Jr.		CIN	cf	12.1
9.	Edwin Encarnacion	CIN	3b	7.7
10.	Rich Aurilia		CIN	3b	7.2

						VORP	BABIP
1.	Bronson Arroyo		CIN	NL	39.7	0.282
2.	Aaron Harang		CIN	NL	25.5	0.341
3.	Todd Coffey		CIN	NL	11.5	0.317
4.	Elizardo Ramirez	CIN	NL	10.3	0.293
5.	Eric Milton		CIN	NL	6.1	0.269
6.	Dave Weathers		CIN	NL	3.9	0.296
7.	Esteban Yan		CIN	NL	3.3	0.220
8.	Matt Belisle		CIN	NL	3.0	0.300
9.	Kent Mercker		CIN	NL	1.5	0.260
10.	Jason Standridge	CIN	NL	1.3	0.385

[Ltlabner]

Does that mean the number of runs contributed as in RBI's? Or runs contributed as in how many times the individual player crosses home plate?

[wheels]

I can't wait to see Milton's VORP at the end of the season.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

Does that mean the number of runs contributed as in RBI's? Or runs contributed as in how many times the individual player crosses home plate?

VORP is a cumulative stat, not a rate stat,

VORP encompasses how much playing time the player in question got, and is a number of runs contributed over replacement level *given that amount of playing time.* There is a rate stat version of VORP--"VORPr" (VORP-rate)

It expresses a player's rate of production in runs per game above replacement level. e.g. a player with a .500 VORPr contributes half-a-run above replacement level per game (which is outstanding, BTW). VORPr (and VORP) can be less than zero, meaning that a player was below replacement level over that stretch of plate appearances.

[reds44]

Our cleanup hitter is 10th on our team.

[Ltlabner]

Our cleanup hitter is 10th on our team.

I wondered how long it would take for that comment to be made.

I'm also currious about that guy in 9th place.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

I wondered how long it would take for that comment to be made.

I'm also currious about that guy in 9th place.

What about him? He is a developing player, and he hasn't been hitting cleanup.

Actually our 3-4 hitters are 8 and 10th. Sad lineup.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by westofyou

VORP is a cumulative stat, not a rate stat,

VORP encompasses how much playing time the player in question got, and is a number of runs contributed over replacement level *given that amount of playing time.* There is a rate stat version of VORP--"VORPr" (VORP-rate)

It expresses a player's rate of production in runs per game above replacement level. e.g. a player with a .500 VORPr contributes half-a-run above replacement level per game (which is outstanding, BTW). VORPr (and VORP) can be less than zero, meaning that a player was below replacement level over that stretch of plate appearances.

What, or who, is this replacement player?

[dsmith421]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

What, or who, is this replacement player?

It refers to your average AAAA scrub that bounces between the majors and the minors, not an average major leaguer. Think someone like Reggie Taylor.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

What, or who, is this replacement player?

A replacement-level player is one who is "easily available" to any team--a AAA journeyman or end of the bench player.

Replacement level is significantly below average--about 80% of average for the position.

If you think of it in OPS terms, (which we know you won't want to) roughly 70 points of OPS below the average for the position is replacement level.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=4187

[Ltlabner]

What's really impressive is Brandon Philips. He's been all over the lineup and yet has been able to find a way to contribute runs whether he's 2nd or 8th.

I know he's a dreaded vet, but I really like Hatte. That guy finds a way to 1B come heck or highwater.

[pedro]

Edwin has also missed more than a month of play. I would guess his VORP would be more like 13 or so had he been not been injured.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by westofyou

A replacement-level player is one who is "easily available" to any team--a AAA journeyman or end of the bench player.

Replacement level is significantly below average--about 80% of average for the position.

If you think of it in OPS terms, (which we know you won't want to) roughly 70 points of OPS below the average for the position is replacement level.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=4187

I can think of it in OPS terms. I am just asking who this replacement player is. I'm also just asking how the thing is calculated, not the validity of it.

Now the validity question.

The million dollar question is...how in the world can Dunn be only worth 2 runs more than Hatte? Am I misreading this stat? Dunn has scored many more runs and knocked in double Hatte's runs.

So, is this number calculated by theory? That Hatte should be worth two runs less than Dunn? If it is, IMO, this stat is bogus. Because it isn't playing out on the field.

Please don't turn this into an OBP argument. I don't want to be involved in another OBP Royal Rumble. But if Dunn is only worth two more runs than Hatteberg, then he is severly overpaid and should be traded immediately. If OBP is driving Hatteberg's VORP into ridiculous levels, then just say that is the reason and we can move on. I just cannot see that two run difference as being legitimate, no matter if Bill James swears on a stack of Baseball Prospectuses that it is.

I again request a simple answer. Please no OBP brawls.

[pedro]

I think it has something to do with Dunn's horrid may/june, poor defense so far, and the fact that Hatteberg has been playing over his head. I think you can expect that Hatteberg will finish the season about where he is and Dunn will finish with a VORP of about 45.

TMBS, if the Reds manage to get a VORP of 20 out of Hatteberg over the full season it will be quite the coup. BP projected hattebergs VORP prior to the season to be exactly Zero.

[Ltlabner]

Edwin has also missed more than a month of play. I would guess his VORP would be more like 13 or so had he been not been injured.

Edwin has started 54 games, RA has started 60 so there isn't much different there in playing time. In fact, JR has started 60 games and has a higher number than both. And Ross, has only started 45 games yet has a significantly higher number than either EE or RA.