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06-01-2006, 11:04 AM
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#1 |
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Worth The Wait
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Oklahoma City
Posts: 4,111
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Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake
Junior’s injuries/games missed makes it difficult to compare total production numbers to his counterparts in the NL that bat third in the line-up, but a quick glance at OBP gives a real hint as to how far Griffey has slipped and how mis-used he is by Narron.
I still want Junior in our line-up, and his sweet swing still makes him a long ball threat, especially if we’re down by multiple runs late in a game. However, he simply isn’t a productive 3 hole hitter anymore. Not even close. IMO, he is hitting third based SOLEY on reputation and nothing more. Check out the on base percentage of the other typical NL #3 hitters (I excluded the Giants because they have used almost everyone in that spot). Albert Pools .449 Derek Lee .448 Miguel Cabrera .444 Nomar Garcia Para .421 Sean Casey .417 Chipper Jones .409 Todd Helton .404 Brian Giles .399 Carlos Beltran .389 Lance Berkman .377 Aaron Rowand .351 Chad Tracy .350 Alfonso Soriano .347 Geoff Jenkins .326 Ken Griffey Jr. .300 It’s not even CLOSE. Junior just isn’t getting on base, he isn’t producing runs like he used to and he is now arguably one of the poorest 3 hole hitters in MLB. Not only should Junior move from CF, but it’s also time to drop him in the order. |
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06-01-2006, 11:07 AM
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#2 |
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breath
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: PDX
Posts: 39,345
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Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake
The Reds are 13th in slot 3 by OPS, but that is slugging heavy.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/...11&season=2006 |
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06-01-2006, 11:10 AM
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#3 |
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Has big taste
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 6,704
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Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake
I'm about to ask a question that just cuts to the heart of ego, I think, but why is the #3 spot -- and centerfield, for that matter -- such a "prize"? Griffey is a great hitter in many ways. If he happens to do that hitting in, say, the #5 spot where his hitting will be more beneficial for everyone, is anyone really going to think less of him? If he makes a great catch in left field or at first, is anyone going to view it as a less worthy catch because of where he made it? This is a baseball team, not an individual race. This is kind of the stuff they teach you in nursery school.
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There is no such thing as a pitching prospect. |
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06-01-2006, 11:16 AM
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#4 |
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Worth The Wait
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Oklahoma City
Posts: 4,111
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Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake
vatican--
The goal is to give the TEAM the best chance to win over a 162 game season. There's a reason Albert Pujols hits third for the Cards and why Derek Lee won an MVP hitting third for the Cubs. Over the course of a very long season, that slot in the line-up comes up more often, w/ more run-scoring opportunities than spots lower in the order. A tough-out in the #3 hole also makes your clean-up hitter more dangerous. We might see an increase in Dunn's production if Junior got on base more frequently in front of him. I certainly don't mean to "trash" Junior-- I want him out there. But IMO, our overall line-up, and therefore the chances for team success would be increased if Junior was moved down in the order. |
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06-01-2006, 11:21 AM
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#5 | |
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Has big taste
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 6,704
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Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake
Quote:
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There is no such thing as a pitching prospect. |
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06-01-2006, 11:33 AM
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#6 |
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Member
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 350
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Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake
I don't think Junior has played enough for us to make that determination. I mean I really couldn't see him finishing with much less than a .350 OBP and .500 SLG. He has a ridiculous amount of RBI's though for his playing time and for his other stats. He is hitting a lot less doubles but I mean considering he missed about 80 at bats he can still rebound. Too early to tell.... he's not the player he once was but I think he's still a .275, 35, 120 kinda guy maybe. I mean if he starts the rest of the season he's pacing almost 150 RBI's. I assume his average with increase, power stay the same and RBI's decrease. Having said that... he would have even MORE RBI's a little lower in the order. So that would probably be the best thing... either 4th or 5th.
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06-01-2006, 11:33 AM
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#7 |
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White Castle to the Nile
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Tybee Island, GA
Posts: 1,943
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Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake
Not only that, but it's also like having a catcher running the bases. He's either very leery of getting hurt, or he's just not interested in running the bases like a normal player.
Having a station-to-station runner in the 3rd hole hurts a bit too.
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"I fought because I understood and could not bear to understand, that it was my destiny -- unlike that of my father, whose fate it was to hear the roar of the crowd -- to sit in the stands with most men and acclaim others. It was my fate, my destiny, my end, to be a fan." |
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06-01-2006, 12:39 PM
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#8 |
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Big Red Machine
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Out Wayne
Posts: 22,366
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Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake
The sample is too small-only 110 or so official at bats. I would not be at all surprised to see Junior's OBP be thirty to fifty points higher in another month or two. Whether Junior hits third or fifth in the lineup also would have a very limited effect on the number of runs the Reds score. Finally, some sabermetric studies indicate that a team's best hitter should bat second or fourth, not third.
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"Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams." |
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06-01-2006, 12:46 PM
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#9 | |
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breath
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: PDX
Posts: 39,345
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Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake
Quote:
(hidden by the man's hitting .355) |
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06-01-2006, 01:57 PM
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#10 |
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Rally Onion!
Join Date: May 2000
Location: Cincinnati, OH
Posts: 33,216
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Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake
He has been receptive in the past to batting 4th and perhaps 5th. Much more receptive than he has been to moving to another position. Of course that isn't saying much.
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06-01-2006, 02:36 PM
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#11 |
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Reds Slacker '07
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,783
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Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake
Snice coming off the DL JR has hit 5 home runs, 21 RBI and scored 8 runs.
He has 20 hits in 79 ABs, drawing 3 walks and Striking Out 16 times. I think JR is turning it on... and he will move up in that ranking by the end of June to Mid July.
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06-01-2006, 02:51 PM
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#12 |
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Member
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: Vancouver, Wa
Posts: 8,212
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Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake
His rbi/ab totals have been great, but he has lost all patience to take a walk this year.
Since he's been a Red, his walk rates have been: 2000 - 6.42 (ab/bb) 2001 - 9.27 2002 - 8.03 2003 - 7.14 2004 - 7.81 2005 - 8.24 2006 - 16.71 I think his bat is still very dangerous, but I think a move to #4 makes sense, especially if Dunn's sudden memory of how to hit to all fields has returned, making him the easy choice for #3.
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“Our team is a team full of fighters. They never panic. We don't necessarily get all the hits we want all the time, but we find a way to win.” – Dusty Baker |
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06-01-2006, 04:19 PM
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#13 |
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The Lineups stink.
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: West N. Carolina
Posts: 55,342
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Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake
I'd flip flop him and Dunn 3/4 if he's not going to be walking..slugger with walks is better then slugger with no walks.
And JR is my fav player of all time so save your "Everyone hates JR" crap for somebody else 
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Go Gators! |
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06-01-2006, 04:44 PM
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#14 |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Newburgh, IN
Posts: 3,440
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Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake
hmmm. I think missing the 3+ weeks makes it a small sample. I guess I'll have to think about this more, but I see Griffey with 28 RBIs only 4 RBIs behind the Reds leader and think with him missing all those games that's pretty darn good. Like last night. Not just a HR, but a key single up the middle where Dunn has struggled mightily in those situations. I like it the way it is. for me it doesn't matter though. I just want Griffey up with guys on base so maybe putting Dunn in front would be a good thing, but I'd rather have Griffey up with RISP before Dunn so I guess that means Griff in the 2 hole.
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And This One Belongs to the REDS!!! |
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06-01-2006, 05:34 PM
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#15 |
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Member
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: wilmington n.c.
Posts: 928
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Re: Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake
here is my ideal lineup:
1)Phillips-2b 2)Lopez-ss 3)Dunn-lf 4)Griffey-cf 5)Kearns-rf 6)Hatteberg-1b 7)EE-3b 8)Larue/Ross/Valentin-c |
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