Homer Bailey in the middle of another gem...

[Scrap Irony]

Cincinnati in September, assuming he continues to dominate AA as he has so far. Anything more than a 1.50 ERA in AA keeps him in the minors until next All Star break.

Say what you will about Bailey's offspeed pitches, his work ethic, or the propensity of high schoolers to break down, he's been an outstanding prospect this season. He's among the top handful of pitchers capable of ace level status and his ceiling is growing ever higher.

The promotion, in short, has worked wonders, despite what many of the so-called experts on this board prophesized.

[StillFunkyB]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Here was Willis' line in AA before the Marlins brought him up:

Year 	W	L	ERA	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	H9	HR9	BB9	K9	WHIP
2003	4	1	1.49	36.1	24	6	6	2	9	32	5.94	0.50	2.23	7.93	0.91

Compared to Bailey:

Year 	W	L	ERA	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	H9	HR9	BB9	K9	WHIP
2006	4	0	0.88	30.2	17	3	3	0	6	31	4.98	0.00	1.76	9.09	0.75

It is worth noting, however, that Willis had thrown 315.2 innings of minor league baseball whereas Bailey has only 216.2 IP. While their level-numbers through 5 games (6 for Willis) are fairly comparable, I feel that Bailey would truly benefit from throwing at least 325-350 innings in the minors before the Reds even consider bringing him up.

Good points. Thanks for the post CE. My leg is back on board the "don't rush" boat.

[JaxRed]

I attended last night's game and compared notes with another Reds fan at the game and we were both if the same opinion.

First this was a dominating performance. Through 6 innings, the only hit had been a swinging bunt accident that dribbled down the third base line. The first hit in the 7th was an opposite field single cue shot off the end of the bat. He then barely nicked a batter, before giving up a solid single up the middle.

Even when the batters were putting wood on the ball they were lazy fly balls and weak grounders. The fast ball was well located all night long, and was pitching at the knees.

He mixed in quite a few curves but was having trouble getting it in the strike zone consistenly (usually stayed high). When it worked, 8 or 9 times at least, (not always for 3rd strikes), they were knee bucklers that froze the batter or had him WAY out in front. Several times you could hear the crowd murmer after these pitches they were so unfair. I was in a Jacksonville crowd and you could hear people all around talking about how good Bailey was.

Now, for a guy that is supposed to be working on a changeup, I never saw one all night, unless his changeup moves like a curve.

[Superdude]

Now, for a guy that is supposed to be working on a changeup, I never saw one all night, unless his changeup moves like a curve.

Unless you had perfect seats, it' probably hard to tell a difference if his changeup has a little sink.

[LoganBuck]

Jax, what are you thinking for Homer on an ETA?

In the very short sighted, little patience crowd he is almost synched up with Joe Mays in the rotation.

[lollipopcurve]

Unless you had perfect seats, it' probably hard to tell a difference if his changeup has a little sink.

Unless it's a big 12-to-6 curve, such as Bailey is said to have.

[corkedbat]

They may get greedy and try and break him in for next year by bringing hin up in September of this year. I'd hate to see them start his clock though.

Unless he is absolutley dominant next Spring, he'd break camp going to Louisville next year (I might start him there anyway) if I had any say. After that, all bets are off. If he shows consistency, they could bring him up at any time. Maybe in May when they start using a fifth starter on a regular basis.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Cincinnati in September

Nahhh.

I'd rather see him pitch in the AA playoffs and then shut it down for the year.

[Falls City Beer]

I hope his changeup is only scarcely used. I hate how Reds pitchers (it seems) rely on the changeup way too much. Unless it is a devastating change, I'd rather pitchers just mix it in every now and again. I'd much rather he perfect his curve and trying a few different fastballs.

[Marc D]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I hope his changeup is only scarcely used. I hate how Reds pitchers (it seems) rely on the changeup way too much. Unless it is a devastating change, I'd rather pitchers just mix it in every now and again. I'd much rather he perfect his curve and trying a few different fastballs.

I think thats because we haven't seen a Reds pitcher with a plus fastball in so long we forget how devastating the combination can be. The 82 mph changeup's off 88 mph "fastballs" that end up 400 ft homeruns are what taint our collective view of the pitch.

Coming into '06, from what I had read, I was thinking we had a future flame throwing bullpener on our hands at best. Lets hope his emergence as a potential frontline starter continues. God knows we're due for one.

[JaxRed]

I differ from most of the posters here. 90% of pitchers don't make the grade. So you can select any attribute you want and then have an enormous sucess rate in predicting failure based on that attribute, be it brushing your teeth or "aggressive promotion".

I suspect that once the Reds are satisified that Homer has achieved the things he needs to improve on (curve, changeup), and they are satisfied he has the emotional maturity to handle the jump, he'll move.

Whether that occurs or not this year, I'm not sure. But he's pretty close.

[Superdude]

Unless it's a big 12-to-6 curve, such as Bailey is said to have

I must be getting sucky seats. I can't hardly tell a fastball from a curveball.

[redsfanmia]

Originally Posted by Heath

I'd like to see Homer in September.........of 2007.

I want to see him in September............of 2011

[StillFunkyB]

Originally Posted by Superdude

I must be getting sucky seats. I can't hardly tell a fastball from a curveball.

No, just watch carefully. It's a little more difficult to tell what type of pitch it is at some angles, but if watch the flight path of the ball, it's a little easier to pick out.

Knowing that Bailey has just the three pitches it should be pretty easy to pick them out. As well as someone stating that he throws more heat than anything else.

[StillFunkyB]

I have heard lot of things over the years as well, and I'm no expert. I'm not a student of the game, but if you have a "live" fastball, and can locate said pitch, that your other pitches don't need to be good.

Is that still true?