Would You Trade Bailey For Willis? - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

Krusty · 07-27-2006, 08:53 AM

Would you package Homer Bailey in a deal to acquire LHP Dontrelle Willis? The Reds would have control of Willis for the remainder of this season and all of 2007.

REDREAD · 07-27-2006, 08:57 AM

Yes, I'd do that immediately.

Krusty · 07-27-2006, 09:03 AM

The way I see it, the Reds would have to give the Fishes three quality prospects. Bailey, Votto and Dumtrait? Would those three be enough for the Fishes to decide to part with their ace?

Spitball · 07-27-2006, 09:15 AM

I think it makes perfect sense for both teams. The Marlins need to move back the clock and get the younger, cheaper version of Willis, which would be Bailey. The Reds need to move up the clock to get what they hope will be the polished version of Bailey, which would be Willis.

Same could be said about Encarnacion and Cabrera.

REDREAD · 07-27-2006, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krusty

The way I see it, the Reds would have to give the Fishes three quality prospects. Bailey, Votto and Dumtrait? Would those three be enough for the Fishes to decide to part with their ace?

I don't know Krusty, there's not a lot of pitching available. With all the contenders needing a starter, I don't know if that would be the highest bid or not.

RedEye · 07-27-2006, 09:18 AM

Dontrelle is no Doyle, even if Bailey is Smoltz. You make that deal.

Aceking · 07-27-2006, 09:35 AM

Doyle Alexander was 37 when the Braves traded him for Smoltz. Not exactly a fair comparison.

Also, Doyle went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA for the Tigers that year after the trade. Pretty impressive.

rcjones20 · 07-27-2006, 09:38 AM

Sorry, but you can't compare the two. Doyle Alexander was a 37 year old at the end of his career. Willis is a much much younger lefty who is just entering his prime. This is what makes the trade deadline so interesting. Who is willing to take the gamble. If I was K I would make that trade today. You hate to lose your top prospect but I think you take that gamble if it involves Willis. I think the Marlins would want more than just Bailey.

jmble · 07-27-2006, 09:48 AM

I would do it in a heartbeat. Not only would they have control of Willis through next year, but I have confidence that current ownership would make the attempt to keeping him here past 07.

If Bailey turns out as good as Willis, I think everyone would be ecstatic. The chances he turns out so much better than Willis that this trade looks bad are slim.

If the Reds were able to resign Willis long term after 07, the most you would be losing is maybe five years at the end of Bailey's career.

lollipopcurve · 07-27-2006, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Not only would they have control of Willis through next year, but I have confidence that current ownership would make the attempt to keeping him here past 07.

Along with signing Harang?

jmble · 07-27-2006, 09:58 AM

I'm not saying it would be easy Lolli. But if you look at the potential line up in 08, you see David Ross, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion, and Chris Denorfia. Not sure who will be playing 2B/SS (depending on where Phillips is playing) That leaves Dunn and Griffey as the only two big money players on this roster at that time. Does that leave room for both Harrang and Willis? I really don't know. I don't know how much Mr. Castellini is going to be willing to spend, but what they have shown me is that they want to win.

smith288 · 07-27-2006, 10:00 AM

No... Willis is a mechanics nightmare in my opinion

boognish · 07-27-2006, 10:05 AM

No, Willis's declining K/9 and the fact that he pitches in a pitcher's park with an historically better D frightens me...also, for just entering his prime he has thrown a lot of innings with a violent delivery.

Just too many bad portents, IMO, for a high price (3 high-ceiling guys, again IMO)

CySeymour · 07-27-2006, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boognish

No, Willis's declining K/9 and the fact that he pitches in a pitcher's park with an historically better D frightens me...also, for just entering his prime he has thrown a lot of innings with a violent delivery.

Just too many bad portents, IMO, for a high price (3 high-ceiling guys, again IMO)

I gotta agree with you here...there are too many red flags in the D-Train's performance this year.

registerthis · 07-27-2006, 10:39 AM

Yep, his numbers are all pretty much up from last year, when he pitched 236 innings. But he's 24 years old, and even on flawed mechanics can last for awhile longer.

I think people forget how young he is, and how startlingly good he has been through the first few years of his career. A lot of guys don't even see the majors before the age of 24.

View Poll Results: Would You Trade Homer Bailey for Dontrelle Willis
Yes, Willis could mean the difference in getting to the playoffs	50	44.64%
No, It might end up being another Smoltz for Doyle Alexander deal.	62	55.36%
Voters: 112. You may not vote on this poll

07-27-2006, 08:53 AM	#1
Krusty Member Join Date: May 2000 Location: Williamsport, PA Posts: 12,311	Would You Trade Bailey For Willis? Would you package Homer Bailey in a deal to acquire LHP Dontrelle Willis? The Reds would have control of Willis for the remainder of this season and all of 2007. __________________ If you think small, you'll go nowhere in life.

07-27-2006, 08:57 AM	#2
REDREAD Where's my chair? Join Date: Apr 2000 Posts: 19,790	Re: Would You Trade Bailey For Willis? Yes, I'd do that immediately. __________________ Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2012 AND 2013! Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

07-27-2006, 09:03 AM	#3
Krusty Member Join Date: May 2000 Location: Williamsport, PA Posts: 12,311	Re: Would You Trade Bailey For Willis? The way I see it, the Reds would have to give the Fishes three quality prospects. Bailey, Votto and Dumtrait? Would those three be enough for the Fishes to decide to part with their ace? __________________ If you think small, you'll go nowhere in life.

07-27-2006, 09:15 AM	#4
Spitball Member Join Date: Apr 2000 Posts: 5,491	Re: Would You Trade Bailey For Willis? I think it makes perfect sense for both teams. The Marlins need to move back the clock and get the younger, cheaper version of Willis, which would be Bailey. The Reds need to move up the clock to get what they hope will be the polished version of Bailey, which would be Willis. Same could be said about Encarnacion and Cabrera. __________________ "Colorless green ideas sleep furiously."- Noam Chomsky

07-27-2006, 09:18 AM	#6
RedEye Ojo Rojo Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Moving to Atlanta in July Posts: 4,413	Re: Would You Trade Bailey For Willis? Dontrelle is no Doyle, even if Bailey is Smoltz. You make that deal. __________________ "It's a dog-eat-dog world and I'm wearing milkbone underwear." - Norm (George Wendt), Cheers

07-27-2006, 09:35 AM	#7
Aceking Member Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: Cincinnati, OH Posts: 820	Re: Would You Trade Bailey For Willis? Doyle Alexander was 37 when the Braves traded him for Smoltz. Not exactly a fair comparison. Also, Doyle went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA for the Tigers that year after the trade. Pretty impressive. __________________ http://www.ohiosportsfans.com GREAT BENGALS FORUM!

07-27-2006, 09:38 AM	#8
rcjones20 Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 10	Re: Would You Trade Bailey For Willis? Sorry, but you can't compare the two. Doyle Alexander was a 37 year old at the end of his career. Willis is a much much younger lefty who is just entering his prime. This is what makes the trade deadline so interesting. Who is willing to take the gamble. If I was K I would make that trade today. You hate to lose your top prospect but I think you take that gamble if it involves Willis. I think the Marlins would want more than just Bailey.

07-27-2006, 09:48 AM	#9
jmble Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 81	Re: Would You Trade Bailey For Willis? I would do it in a heartbeat. Not only would they have control of Willis through next year, but I have confidence that current ownership would make the attempt to keeping him here past 07. If Bailey turns out as good as Willis, I think everyone would be ecstatic. The chances he turns out so much better than Willis that this trade looks bad are slim. If the Reds were able to resign Willis long term after 07, the most you would be losing is maybe five years at the end of Bailey's career.

07-27-2006, 09:58 AM	#11
jmble Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 81	Re: Would You Trade Bailey For Willis? I'm not saying it would be easy Lolli. But if you look at the potential line up in 08, you see David Ross, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion, and Chris Denorfia. Not sure who will be playing 2B/SS (depending on where Phillips is playing) That leaves Dunn and Griffey as the only two big money players on this roster at that time. Does that leave room for both Harrang and Willis? I really don't know. I don't know how much Mr. Castellini is going to be willing to spend, but what they have shown me is that they want to win.

07-27-2006, 10:00 AM	#12
smith288 Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: New Albany, OH Posts: 7,197	Re: Would You Trade Bailey For Willis? No... Willis is a mechanics nightmare in my opinion __________________ Did you like that?

07-27-2006, 10:05 AM	#13
boognish Roster glue Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Covington Posts: 520	Re: Would You Trade Bailey For Willis? No, Willis's declining K/9 and the fact that he pitches in a pitcher's park with an historically better D frightens me...also, for just entering his prime he has thrown a lot of innings with a violent delivery. Just too many bad portents, IMO, for a high price (3 high-ceiling guys, again IMO)

07-27-2006, 10:39 AM	#15
registerthis Harry Chiti Fan Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Washington, DC Posts: 5,872	Re: Would You Trade Bailey For Willis? Yep, his numbers are all pretty much up from last year, when he pitched 236 innings. But he's 24 years old, and even on flawed mechanics can last for awhile longer. I think people forget how young he is, and how startlingly good he has been through the first few years of his career. A lot of guys don't even see the majors before the age of 24. __________________ We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

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