RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion Reds Playoff Odds Updated

 08-01-2006, 01:00 PM #1 Joseph Tired of talk. Win!     Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 8,270 Reds Playoff Odds Updated Code: ```Average wins by position in NL Central: 89.4 84.4 79.0 74.8 70.1 64.3 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cardinals 58 46 .480 87.8 74.2 62.80629 18.18193 80.98822 Reds 55 50 .502 85.4 76.6 34.24460 27.28291 61.52751 Brewers 50 56 .456 77.2 84.8 1.71562 2.84155 4.55717 Astros 49 56 .454 76.2 85.8 1.20014 2.04517 3.24531 Cubs 43 62 .442 70.0 92.0 .03242 .05518 .08760 Pirates 40 66 .427 65.2 96.8 .00093 .00045 .00138``` From Baseball Prospectus: As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report. Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games. Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component. Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations. Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error! __________________ Championships for MY teams in my lifetime: Cincinnati Reds - 75, 76, 90 Chicago Blackhawks - 10, 13 University of Kentucky - 78, 96, 98, 12 Cincinnati Bengals - None Chicago Bulls - 91, 92, 93, 96, 97, 98
 08-01-2006, 01:10 PM #2 fielder's choice Member   Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: KY Posts: 1,063 Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated Cubs and Pirates fans: So you're tellin me there's a chance??
08-01-2006, 01:12 PM   #3
flyer85
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Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

Quote:
 Originally Posted by fielder's choice Cubs and Pirates fans: So you're tellin me there's a chance??
Harry and Lloyd are probably laying money on 'em right now.
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 08-01-2006, 02:14 PM #4 tripleaaaron Member     Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Fort Thomas, KY Posts: 583 Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated do you have the adjusted percentages for the other wild card possibles? we are 60% likely to win the wild-card, correct? are these adjusted based on trade deadline? __________________ ___________________ Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. More democratic. ~Bull Durham MLB Mock Draft 2009: 2. Dustin Ackley 27. Tyler Skaggs 33. Kyle Heckathorn 51. Nick Franklin 82. Billy Bullock
08-01-2006, 02:16 PM   #5
flyer85
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Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

Quote:
 Originally Posted by tripleaaaron do you have the adjusted percentages for the other wild card possibles? we are 60% likely to win the wild-card, correct? are these adjusted based on trade deadline?
34 to win the division and 27 to win the wildcard.
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08-01-2006, 02:20 PM   #6
Reverend Doo-Rag
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Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Joseph [code]the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times.
I used to have a 1974 Monte Carlo with a 350. Does that count?

08-01-2006, 02:34 PM   #7
max venable
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Join Date: Mar 2002
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Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

Quote:
 Originally Posted by fielder's choice Cubs and Pirates fans: So you're tellin me there's a chance??
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 08-22-2006, 02:21 AM #8 mbgrayson Red's fan     Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Montana Posts: 2,003 Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated In case anyone is interested, there are 3 cool sites to bookmark as the Reds stay in the playoff hunt. First of all, here is a link to the Baseball Prospectus playoff odds report. It is updated every morning. There is another playoff odds site, that uses a different calculation method. It is called Cool Standings, and is is located HERE. Then there is the Magic Number....Our Magic Number to win the division (against St. Louis) is now 41. For the Wild Card against the Padres and Phillies it is 36. The Magic Number is the number of combined Reds wins and opponent losses needed to make the playoffs. Here is a good Magic Number site that calculates Magic Numbers... These sites are fun to watch when the Reds win, as you can the odds go up, and the Magic Number drop. Mike __________________ __________________ "I think he'd be unbelievable. He's as organized as anyone in the game, he holds people accountable... He doesn't buy into stereotypical things in the game... Price looks at evidence. He's a freaking smart guy, he makes his decision on reasonable evidence." Bronson Arroyo
 08-22-2006, 03:30 AM #9 oregonred "So Fla Red"   Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: South Florida - The Real Humidor Posts: 4,999 Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated Nice links Cubs still had a 1/2200 chance as of this morning. See the billy goat jinx is just a myth
 08-22-2006, 09:28 AM #10 redsmetz Redsmetz     Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Winton Place Posts: 10,828 Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated I think this is where my frustration with raw statistics comes from. This request is not meant to be rude. It's really more "hat in hand". Can someone translate this or help me get a focus on what I'm looking at in the chart. I've often thought there ought to be a sticky or archived post that explains the conglomeration of Alphabet soup of OPB OP/IC EIEIO's that folks post. My eyes sort of glaze over because I have no frame of reference for the initials and their pertinant meaning. Thanks.
08-22-2006, 09:57 AM   #11
MrCinatit

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Piqua
Posts: 4,428
Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

Quote:
 Originally Posted by redsmetz I think this is where my frustration with raw statistics comes from. This request is not meant to be rude. It's really more "hat in hand". Can someone translate this or help me get a focus on what I'm looking at in the chart. I've often thought there ought to be a sticky or archived post that explains the conglomeration of Alphabet soup of OPB OP/IC EIEIO's that folks post. My eyes sort of glaze over because I have no frame of reference for the initials and their pertinant meaning. Thanks.
*Gives sheepish look from the back of the class*
Whew. Thought I was the only one.
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 08-22-2006, 10:02 AM #12 wheels Hardscrabble     Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Columbus, Ohio Posts: 6,956 Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated You folks might wanna check out the archives. I think someone made huge threads that sum up some of things discussed around here over the years, and statistics was definitely one of them. I'd post links for ya, but I'm on my way out the door.
 08-22-2006, 10:32 AM #13 redsmetz Redsmetz     Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Winton Place Posts: 10,828 Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...ght=statistics This looks like the archived info, although I'm not sure it explains it fully.
08-22-2006, 11:04 AM   #14
dfs
Member

Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 1,531
Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

Quote:
 Can someone translate this or help me get a focus on what I'm looking at in the chart.
They played out the rest of the season via simulation a million times. The easy and important numbers are the last three columns.

1st column is name of the club.
2nd is how many wins they have to date.
3rd is how many losses to date.
I'm not confident what the 4th collumn is. If you really want to know, I could ask Clay. He doesn't really give enough information. My guess is that it's the simulations estimate about that teams expected winning percentage for the rest of the year.
The fifth column is the number of wins the simulation expects the reds to have at the end of the year.
The sixth column is the number of losses the simulation expects the reds to have at the end of the year.
The seventh column is the percentage chance the team has of winning the division according to the simulation.
The eighth column is the percentage chance the team has of winning the wildcard according to the simulation.
The last column is the percentage chance the team has of going to the post season.

FWIW despite the winning streak, via this method as of today the reds are about a 50-50 proposition to make the post season.

The next couple of series and the west coast trip should clear things up far more than any simulation can.

Last edited by dfs; 08-22-2006 at 11:07 AM.

 08-22-2006, 11:41 AM #15 redsmetz Redsmetz     Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Winton Place Posts: 10,828 Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated Thanks, DFS.

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