88 is the number... Can We Make 34-26 Happen in the Last 60???

[oregonred]

102 down and 60 games left...

Reds stand at 54-48 and 2.5 up in the WC

I believe 88 wins would seal at least a Reds Wild Card in the parity of medicority known as the National League.

The NL West seems to be falling back into a .500 collection with the Rockies/Dodgers fading, but capable of holding their own against their own division. The Reds crucial stretch of games include a ten game West Coast trip and that might make/break the season for the Reds/Giants in particular.

88 wins? The Giants/Dbacks need 37-23 and 37-24 respectively. Possible, but that's a high win % against mainly the NL West. Giants/Reds upcoming series becomes pretty huge looking forward.

The Marlins and Braves look to be sexy WC threats on the edges. However both have struggled within their own division and mathematically being 5-6 under .500 means you need to close with a barrage to get to 88 wins.

88 Wins?

Braves would need 40-21, Marlins would need 41-21. Possible but the NL East parity and division rivalries make that seem a reach. As the season rolls along, mathematically even being 5-6 back in the Wild Card starts to become a harder climb by the week. Lets root for the Mets to put the final hammer on the ATL this weekend.

Houston/Brewers. Reds have done there part this week to put both of them to bed. Both would need 40-20 to hit 88 wins. Not going to happen.

Thus we come back to the Reds. 88 is the magic number.

So we need a 34-26 finish. Won't be easy, but feels doable. If 86 or 87 wins somehow gets it done to win the division or the NL Central then we need 32-28 or 33-27. Blowing one like Wed night in Houston really hurt, but salvaging the series was huge. What scares me is a nasty West Coast swing in late August, but I think our pitching staff will be fine out West. We actually have some starting and BP arms to compete almost every night for once this millenium. Opportunity is the 7 game stretch against the Cards from Aug 7-17. Win 5 of 7 and the Reds are a serious division threat.

Mathematically at least, the Reds stand in decent shape to control their own postseason destiny with a modest 34-26 (.567 win percentage) run from here on out.

TIme to find a way to win 2/3 in Milwaukee and keep this thing rolling into August...

[Virginia Beach Reds]

Excellent post. I believe it is entirely possible. The west coast trip as you said will be a really big one. Also, ATL comes to Cincy next week I believe and traditionally ATL owns CIN.

[GoReds]

Using the golf analogy, we have 7 holes left to play (in the middle of a hole now).

If we par the remaining 6 holes, we would be 30-24. Combine that with our current week record (2-1) and that would project to 32-25. We go 2-1 this weekend in Milwaukee and you'll have the 34-26 record to get to 88 games.

It's doable.

[dabvu2498]

Why not us???

[PuffyPig]

Hey, the way things are going, we could finish the year 31-31 and make the wild card.

But logic suggest that at least one of the wild card pretenders will suddenly become a 56% team, so we need to probably be better than that to win. Somebody has to get hot you would think, even though (other than us) no one seems to be able to do it.

[redsfan30]

It's absolutely doable.

[Falls City Beer]

The Reds are a starter and a bullpen arm away (maybe two if Guardado goes down) from the Wild Card spot.

[Mario-Rijo]

If Dunn stays hot and Griffey starts swinging it, with a modest trade for an arm we got it. Or if Claussen comes back and finds the consistency he showed end of last season beginning of this season it's doable. I still think we need another RH bat, but if those 2 aforementioned are hot it's gonna be fun.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

The Reds are a starter and a bullpen arm away (maybe two if Guardado goes down) from the Wild Card spot.

A good starter. Not a Kyle Lohse or Rodrigo Lopez.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by BRM

A good starter. Not a Kyle Lohse or Rodrigo Lopez.

Of course.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Of course.

I wasn't trying to be a smart aleck or anything. Just adding on to your post a little.

I agree they are probably two arms away from the WC.

[NDRed]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

The Reds are a starter and a bullpen arm away (maybe two if Guardado goes down) from the Wild Card spot.

If that were true how could we possibly be leading the Wild Card race?

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by NDRed

If that were true how could we possibly be leading the Wild Card race?

A hot start?

[TOBTTReds]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

The Reds are a starter and a bullpen arm away (maybe two if Guardado goes down) from the Wild Card spot.

I see what you are saying. We are kind of hanging by a thread with 3 starters and an OK bullpen. But after the trade I am satisfied with our bullpen bc if one guy isn't getting it done, we can actually change pitchers and hope the next guy gets someone out, where in the past it was Rick White or die.

We could use another starter to bolster us further ahead. A 2 game lead in the WC is not sufficient. The thing I do like is that there seems to be only 2 teams chasing us now, where a week ago it seemed like there were 10 teams within 4 games.

[NDRed]

Originally Posted by AvesIce51

I see what you are saying. We are kind of hanging by a thread with 3 starters and an OK bullpen. But after the trade I am satisfied with our bullpen bc if one guy isn't getting it done, we can actually change pitchers and hope the next guy gets someone out, where in the past it was Rick White or die.

We could use another starter to bolster us further ahead. A 2 game lead in the WC is not sufficient. The thing I do like is that there seems to be only 2 teams chasing us now, where a week ago it seemed like there were 10 teams within 4 games.

However, every team has significant holes and I think we are in as good of a position as any of the WC contenders.