The Myth of BABIP

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Show me a team that never hits a ball in the air and I'll show you a team that doesn't score very many runs.

Because of lack of HR's not because of lack of hits on Balls Hit Into Play.

[dabvu2498]

Originally Posted by BCubb2003

What were Koufax and Gibson's BABIPs?

Odd that you mention Gibson and BABIP.

This was posted last Friday: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...xscore_morong/

Most fans know that Gibson had an incredibly low ERA of 1.12 in 1968. Even considering that the league ERA was just 2.98 that year, what he did is still great. What explains this performance? Did Gibson have great “stuff” that year? Was he lucky? Or was it a combination of luck and skill? If so, how much of each?

Luck is sometimes a factor in baseball. Some years a guy hits well with runners in scoring position (RISP), some years he doesn’t. In 2004, A.J. Pierzynski, for example, hit .272 overall but .307 with RISP. In 2005, he hit .257 overall but only .236 with RISP. Its not likely he forgot how to hit with RISP all of the sudden. For pitchers, the batting average they allow on balls in play may be out of their hands (as pointed out by Voros McCracken). A pitcher might get lucky on balls in play one year, with more getting caught than normal (or his fielders might be especially good one year). Is this what happened to Gibson?

First comment to that post is quite funny:

1. Traderdave Posted: July 07, 2006 at 06:37 PM (#2091357)

I dare ANYONE to say it was luck to Gibon's face.