In case you are interested...

[Doc. Scott]

Originally Posted by Team Clark

In case anyone is interested in knowing how Homer Bailey would do in the bigs right now..... Tune into Fox and watch Scott Mathieson.

Same type of fastabll, delivery and pitch selection. Scott like Homer has difficulty "consistently" throwing anything but his fastballs for strikes. Big leaguers can hit a 95+ MPH Fastball if they know it's coming.

We had someone at Homer's last start. He threw 18 Curves and only 4 for strikes. His "misses" were not "tight" misses but wide. That's mechanical. He attempted 1 changeup that landed "at least 2 feet" in front of home plate.

He's just not ready. He will be and when he is he will be good. Really good. He's just not ready.

I like the comparison of Mathieson. Scott hadn't pitched above AA and also hadn't really dominated the lower levels. But because he has the velocity and really looks like a big-league pitcher, here he is at age 22. He got the callup because he'd suddenly started seeing the wins for half a season.

And like TC said, once the Reds figured out it was the ol' number one and pray for rain, they got to him.

[Team Clark]

Originally Posted by SanDiegoRed

I am ready for bed like 3 hours ago but i am enjoying the hell out of this conversation.

Me too. Long Day. I spent the day in the dugout and almost got thrown. I normally do not give the umps a real hard time because I caught for so long I gained a great feal of respect for them. On the flip side, if you are terrible and you affect the outcome of the game and intentionally do so to be a jerk.... I will be certain to let you know.

[Team Clark]

Originally Posted by Doc. Scott

I like the comparison of Mathieson. Scott hadn't pitched above AA and also hadn't really dominated the lower levels. But because he has the velocity and really looks like a big-league pitcher, here he is at age 22. He got the callup because he'd suddenly started seeing the wins for half a season.

And like TC said, once the Reds figured out it was the ol' number one and pray for rain, they got to him.

Great points (as usual) Doc. That's why I was a little hardline on my defense. Of all the guys in the big leagues I thought Mathieson was the absolute closest in comparison. Not just experience but the entire package.

[SanDiegoRed]

I had to go to a family fuction tonight and missed the game...Thank God for this board and the insights here. I live and die with the Reds and have for over 35 years. Its nice to have something exciting to talk about for a change. Its been awhile.

[Razor Shines]

Originally Posted by Team Clark

Me too. Long Day. I spent the day in the dugout and almost got thrown. I normally do not give the umps a real hard time because I caught for so long I gained a great feal of respect for them. On the flip side, if you are terrible and you affect the outcome of the game and intentionally do so to be a jerk.... I will be certain to let you know.

I umpire high school and I am the same way when I go to my younger brother's games (he's in high school). When I ump I have no problem getting yelled at by coaches as long as they know the rules. I cannot believe the number of coaches that don't know what they are talking about. I'm only 24 so to an older coach it's obviously me that doesn't know the rules, oh that makes me so angry.

[2001MUgrad]

Originally Posted by Team Clark

No. The Reds need to groom him as a starting pitcher. There is a process involved in that. They do not need to "break the cycle" just to help the bullpen. IMO.

If he is this far away, I would think 2007 is out of the question? When will he be ready if he stays on course. He is what 20, no rush. just curious.

[Team Clark]

Originally Posted by Razor Shines 1B

I umpire high school and I am the same way when I go to my younger brother's games (he's in high school). When I ump I have no problem getting yelled at by coaches as long as they know the rules. I cannot believe the number of coaches that don't know what they are talking about. I'm only 24 so to an older coach it's obviously me that doesn't know the rules, oh that makes me so angry.

I saw stuff today that was just flat out insane. One umpire told our Manager "You better get him outta here", so our skip says "Why??.. he knows more than you do" LOL! I just had to laugh.

[Team Clark]

Originally Posted by 2001MUgrad

If he is this far away, I would think 2007 is out of the question? When will he be ready if he stays on course. He is what 20, no rush. just curious.

I would not rule 2007 out. Sept 2007 might be OK if he keeps progressing. You need to throw a lot of innings to refine pitches. He needs some movement on his FB, he's a little long in his stride which is preventing him from turning that breaking ball over. His change is flat because he is slowing his arm down to "conciously" throw a change. You needs INNINGS to get that worked out. Bad part is he needs innings with a really good instructor hooked to his hip. The Reds really do not have one.

[Razor Shines]

Originally Posted by Team Clark

I would not rule 2007 out. Sept 2007 might be OK if he keeps progressing. You need to throw a lot of innings to refine pitches. He needs some movement on his FB, he's a little long in his stride which is preventing him from turning that breaking ball over. His change is flat because he is slowing his arm down to "conciously" throw a change. You needs INNINGS to get that worked out. Bad part is he needs innings with a really good instructor hooked to his hip. The Reds really do not have one.

I've never seen him pitch. Can he throw his fastball where he wants atleast? Or is he just putting it down the middle and throwing it hard enough to dominate at AA?

[Team Clark]

Originally Posted by Razor Shines 1B

I've never seen him pitch. Can he throw his fastball where he wants atleast? Or is he just putting it down the middle and throwing it hard enough to dominate at AA?

His control of the FB is pretty good but his command is not great. Once he gets rid of that overstride he will be able to command the FB better. If he had excellent command of his FB right now and could get 50% of his breaking balls over I would say give him the last start of the year, provided the Reds are in the Playoffs. That experience could give him something to really grown on in the off-season. BUT, he does not have that type of command. These guys in AA are good hitters but continue to fail to make small adjustments to jump on him.

I'd rather see him develop a great slider. It's the same plane as the FB and with his power behind it...whew. Probably untochable. Easier to teach and you will get quicker results. He could continue to work on that curve in his bullpen sessions. But hey...what do I know? Rijo had a pretty nice run with it. He just threw it too much.

[jmcclain19]

Bailey to me strikes me as a guy who needs to be pushed to succeed. Look at what he's done since he was in ST this year.

Didn't really do well at all last year, but the hope still shined bright and glimmered from time to time. Based on the 2005 performance, He probably should have started the year off in Dayton, but excelled in ST and was placed in Sarasota. Once again, he didn't really blow anyone away there, but his stuff was still good, so the Reds challenged him and he stepped up.

Have to wonder if the Reds keep doing that, at some point he's going to have to self motivate.

But he just seems to me to be that type. Can't really get up for the Pirates game, but against the Cards he's threatening a no-no. Not that I know anything inside or have any unpublished knowledge, just a gut feeling.

[forfreelin04]

Originally Posted by Team Clark

I would not rule 2007 out. Sept 2007 might be OK if he keeps progressing. You need to throw a lot of innings to refine pitches. He needs some movement on his FB, he's a little long in his stride which is preventing him from turning that breaking ball over. His change is flat because he is slowing his arm down to "conciously" throw a change. You needs INNINGS to get that worked out. Bad part is he needs innings with a really good instructor hooked to his hip. The Reds really do not have one.

TC, thanks for all your insights its nice to actually read about how the game is played for a change then well you know haha. I cant believe Homer is actually consciously throwing a change slow. This truly shows is immaturity to be a ML ready SP. I did that when I started throwing a straight change in HS. Of course I didnt throw 96. Amazingly I still had tendon problems anyways. Now I can firmly agree with all those parents and coaches that told my Dad throwing an excess amount of roundhouse curves at a young age would mess up my shoulder. I had to chuckle when Arroyo said he could throw 125 pitches a game because his breaking stuff allows him to take the strain off his arm. Funny he said that before the AS break.
I havent seen him throw since Dayton but is he still throwing arrows to the plate? I always thought a guy with the natural gift to throw a baseball at such speed could benefit from throwing two separate fastballs simply with different grips. One that rose and then one that moved away from a right handed hitter. He should throw the changeup preferably circle since it will cut down the speed of the pitch and have better movement. Then mix in a nice drop curve which could be thrown at full speed for a sharp break on the inside corner and/or throw the same curve Daid Wells esque just for good measure. Oh and hed have to get them all over the plate when necessary. Then I think Reds fans would get the ACE they want.

On a side note, with EZ getting demoted and his recent problems on the mount I beg to ask has he been tipping his pitches? I havent see him pitch on TV being in the dreaded Cleveland area but Id be willing to bet so. Amazing how this happens twice a year it seems and yet the Reds coaching staff doesnt catch onto it until its too late.

[Newman4]

TC, I have a few questions regarding Homer that you may be able to help with:

1. What has happened to his curveball? His draft write up/scouting report says this: "11/5 CB W/ TIGHT ROTATION, SHARP K ZONE BITE WHEN OUT FRONT" and Baseball America graded it a 70 as early as last year and described as a 'plus pitch'. BA also mentioned Homer working on 'refining' his change last year and in another article discuss his 'plus command of all three pitches'. Has he regressed due to his success with his fastball?

2. Doesn't Homer throw harder than Mathieson on a consistent basis? I have heard Homer compared to A.J. Burnett in terms of velocity with his fastball. Up until recently, I would think Homer would have better control than Mathieson as well, thus better results

By the way, I agree with you about the slider. If he can't get the curve going this season, then working on a slider in the off season could make all the difference.

[BuckWoody]

Originally Posted by Team Clark

It would be pretty cool to see him come up and pull a Jared Weaver.

I'd like to nominate this post for understatement of the year.

Originally Posted by Team Clark

I would not rule 2007 out. Sept 2007 might be OK if he keeps progressing. You need to throw a lot of innings to refine pitches. He needs some movement on his FB, he's a little long in his stride which is preventing him from turning that breaking ball over. His change is flat because he is slowing his arm down to "conciously" throw a change. You needs INNINGS to get that worked out. Bad part is he needs innings with a really good instructor hooked to his hip. The Reds really do not have one.

What are the chances of getting Mario Soto to come back to the organization full-time? It seemed like he was really doing a good job teaching that nasty change of his in spring training. I'm not 100% clear on his reasons for leaving Louisville earlier this season...I certainly hope there is no rift between him and the club. Seems like we could attach him to Homer's hip and it would do wonders.

[Jr's Boy]

If anyone can find Homer's quote after the futures game where he said ''my fastball is my best pitch and that they want me to work on a change up and curve but my fastball is my best pitch''.That wasn't the exact quote,but I do remember reading him say that after the game.