In case you are interested...

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

Nope...pitcher with great potential that was rushed through the system

actually he was simply a pitcher who has complex/violent mechanics which he got into a groove in 2003 and has never been able to recapture those mechanics(which is not highly unusual). He now has a slider that breaks almost completely in the horizontal plane and a fastball over which he has no command. An excellent corollary is the flameout in 2006 of Turnbow. Afterall, Cordero being rushed in 2003 sure hasn't hurt him. The difference? Cordero has very smooth and simple repeatable mechanics(like Bailey does).

Wagner was simply a player the Reds should not have drafted at 14. His problems have little to do with being rushed and much more to do with difficult to repeat mechanics to which he has refused to make adjustments.

[RedEye]

I've said this before, but I'll say it again: I think Homer and Wagner are apples and oranges. If Homer is brought up this week, they will indeed have one thing in common: appearing in the majors much earlier than anyone expected. However, the comparisons can, and should, end there.

We need to remember that Wagner was a college reliever who moved through the minors much like many of his drafted peers did, albeit less successfully (Chad Cordero and Huston Street, to name a few). As far as most scouts could tell at the time of the draft, Wagner's out pitches were already ML ready. The Reds agreed, and needed BP help, so they brought him up early.

Homer, on the other hand, was drafted as a high school starter whose pitches were still raw. After two years of dominance in the minor leagues, there is still considerable doubt as to whether he yet has a consistent off-speed complement for his fastball--something a starter needs more than a reliever, who only comes in for an inning or two and faces batters once rather than thrice in a game. However, Homer may be ready to do the job out of the bullpen since his 97 MPH heater--paired with anything else slower--will still fool quite a few ML guys the first time around (see Bobby Jenks or K-Rod for two recent examples of this).

There is also an intangible element here. Wagner, by all accounts, had a serious attitude problem by the time he left Cincy. Not all of this was his fault, as the Reds tried to mold him unsuccessfully into a better pitcher and then dumped him back into the minors when he struggled. Homer, as far as I can tell from anecdotal evidence, is a level-headed kid who rises to competition levels (see his dominance at AA, which was supposed to be more difficult for him). This very well might happen again if he were promoted to the bigs. And, once again, a 97 MPH heater doesn't hurt.

Yes, the Reds screwed up Ryan Wagner. But Ryan Wagner also let himself get screwed up. A kid with a different make-up might have responded positively to criticisms and coaching rather than losing composure and confidence. Further, someone with a fragile psyche is probably primed for failure in the MLB... sometimes it's just a question of when rather than how (see Beane, Billy).

Homer, so far at least, does not seem to be quite so vulnerable. In any case, his case is far different than Ryan Wagner's. If we don't bring him up, let's not bring him up because we deem that's best for Homer Bailey--and not because we fear he might be the next Ryan Wagner. Because he just simply isn't.

[TeamBoone]

Originally Posted by Ricardo Cabesa

I would sure to hate to think if this team misses the playoffs by a game and Bailey could have actually helped this team out of the bullpen.

If that happens, I doubt it's because Homer was brought up.

I'm more inclined to think that he'd get lit up by major league hitters and this point in his development possibly allowing two things to happen (neither of them good):

1 - his confidence is shot in the foot.

2 - he could potentially be the reason for the Reds to lose those two games rather than win (I'm sure he'd be neverous as you-know-what... that's not good either when you're in a playoff hunt; you want your pitchers experienced).

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by TeamBoone

I'm more inclined to think that he'd get lit up by major league hitters

and as a reliever and a pitcher who can command a 97 mph fastball I am inclined to think he won't get lit up. There have been a number of successful bullpen guys who were excellent with nothing more than command of an overpowering fastball. When you are throwing that hard the batters don't even swing at the curveball. They simply take it and hope. If a hitter is geared up for the overpowering fastball there is no way they can adjust to hit the curveball.

[5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

Nope...pitcher with great potential that was rushed through the system (at least that is the general concensus). That worked out pretty well for us didn't it?

Im not going to go through listing names, but pitchers with mid to high 90s fast balls are rushed into the bigs all the time and alot of times it works out fine. Ryan Wagner was a head case imo, lets not hold that against Homer and keep him from getting some playoff pitching experience.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by OLD RIGHTHANDER

Im not going to go through listing names, but pitchers with mid to high 90s fast balls are rushed into the bigs all the time and alot of times it works out fine. Ryan Wagner was a head case imo, lets not hold that against Homer and keep him from getting some playoff pitching experience.

Oh he will get playoff experience. Chattanooga has already qualified for the AA playoffs.

[terminator]

One thing to remember is that what Homer does when he first comes up -- whether sooner as a reliever or later as a starter -- will not immediately tell us how good he will be.

When you look at the current HOFer's pitching you have (with no real argument IMHO) Maddux, Clemens, Glavine, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez. Their stats:

Name, First Full Year ERA, Career ERA

Maddux, 5.61, 3.06
Clemens, 4.32, 3.11
Glavine, 5.54/4.56, 3.46
Johnson, 4.40, 3.19
Martinez, 3.42, 2.75

There are some good ones who start well, e.g. Mussina, Oswalt and Zito. Some pitch sparingly the first few years and then come on strong, e.g. Schilling.

That isn't to say that Bailey should come up or stay down, it just means we don't know how he will do when he comes up and regardless of what he does, it won't give us the answer to how good he will end up being.

I'd like to see Homer take the same path as Francisco Liriano. Slowly, then to the 'pen, then dominating as a starter (although I'd like to skip this latest part with the injury).

[kaldaniels]

Team Clark...great responses so far. Here's another question if you don't mind. 2 words that pop up on these threads whenever Bailey is mentioned seem to be "arbitration clock". What significance does that actually hold when considering calling someone up to the bigs. You mention bringing Votto coming (ideally) for 30-40 at-bats and then starting out in AAA next year. Many on here would be up in arms for the team to actually plan Votto's MLB path in that way. Do GM's/Scouts not take into effect the players arbitration status as much as some on these boards do??? Just curious. Thanks!

[Cedric]

Originally Posted by TeamBoone

If that happens, I doubt it's because Homer was brought up.

I'm more inclined to think that he'd get lit up by major league hitters and this point in his development possibly allowing two things to happen (neither of them good):

1 - his confidence is shot in the foot.

2 - he could potentially be the reason for the Reds to lose those two games rather than win (I'm sure he'd be neverous as you-know-what... that's not good either when you're in a playoff hunt; you want your pitchers experienced).

K-Rod wasn't nervous as you-know-what. The great one's are able to handle the pressure and get people out.

Homer Bailey isn't a tenth round pick with low expecations, he's dealt with pressure from the minute his name was called in the draft.

He's ready.

[dougdirt]

Krod also made 50 appearances that year as a reliever in the minors before coming to the majors as a relief guy.

Oh, and Homer isnt ready. He needs more consistancy with his curve ball, and needs to figure out how to throw a change up without slowing down his arm speed.

[Cedric]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Krod also made 50 appearances that year as a reliever in the minors before coming to the majors as a relief guy.

Oh, and Homer isnt ready. He needs more consistancy with his curve ball, and needs to figure out how to throw a change up without slowing down his arm speed.

I wasn't trying to compare Homer to K-rod in terms of their role on team, just showing that the great one's aren't nervous in the hunt.

Homer has a good enough fastball and secondary pitches to compete and get hitters out at this level, I believe that.

His workload is getting up there though, that's the only reason we might not see him this September.

[Aronchis]

Good thread on Homer. As I have been trying to tell people, Homer doesn't have the great "pure/explosive" fastball like Burnett or Verlander(who has very middling secondary stuff, but people can't handle his fastball at all). He is more like Beckett, who likewise, has a similiar fastball and has gotten rocked alot this season because those AL teams are smashing the straight heat.

I wouldn't worry about the offspeed so much at this stage, it may be years if he lasts that long before it can become more reliable. Nor does he need a slider, his breaking pitch, which is due consistancy next year, shall be enough.

What Homer needs to finish off his arsenal is a 2 seamer. I think that could be the kicker with him. Give him a 4th pitch and possible a more trusted 3rd pitch at this stage of his career.

[StillFunkyB]

Homer Bailey essentially only has two pitches.

Slowing down while throwing you changeup pretty much eliminates that from being used at the major league level.

So, that leaves the curve, which has already been stated that he has trouble throwing for strikes on a consistent basis.

If he was to be called up, he might get a couple of good starts until the word gets out and hitters are sitting on the fastball.

Major League hitters will sit on his fastball, and take him to the cleaners.

He needs to either harness that curve, or learn how to throw the change so hitters don't know it's coming.

I don't think you can use previous success, or failure by other players to really determine if someone is ready or not. You have to go by what HB can do himself, and right now his secondary pitches are not good enough to fool big league hitters.

HB is not ready, yet. It's very easy to see that.

[Jpup]

Hey TC, how about Tom House? Any chance the Reds could bring him into the fold? Everything I have read says that House is the premiere guy as far as mechanics. Why isn't he working for a big league club?