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08-27-2006, 02:26 AM
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Smells Like Teen Spirit
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 6,486
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Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak
Another thread inspired this idea, so rather than hijack that thread, I decided to start another.
Does hitting in Rookie ball matter to a player’s future success? Just for fun, here is a link to every Red playing right now, every Red from the last couple of seasons, several AAAA players, and a few top prospects in the Reds system right now. Take a peek at how everyone did in Rookie ball, and how old they were when they went thru that level. Quote:
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Does Stubbs still have a chance? Sure, the game of baseball has lots of quirky ways about it. But it does not look promising. Last edited by jmcclain19; 08-27-2006 at 02:32 AM. |
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08-27-2006, 07:00 AM
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#2 |
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The Big Dog
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 12,668
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Re: Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak
Looks like Stephen Smitherman and Corky Miller should be our 3 and 4 hitters right now.
 I agree that the data doesn't look good for Stubbs. Thanks for digging this up. Guys like me who like to post opinions and learn from this sort of stuff but are too lazy to dig up the stats appreciate it. |
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08-27-2006, 09:32 AM
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#3 |
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Member
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Cary, NC
Posts: 1,391
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Re: Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak
Informative post. Thanks.
By no means have I given up on Stubbs. He is a great athlete and his OBP shows he has a pretty good eye. I would have taken Tim Lincecum first. Here is the link for his early numbers. He has 28 strikeouts in 17 innings in high A ball. Oddly he has given up three homers. Bailey-Cueto-Lincecum would have represented perhaps the best triumverate of high potential arms in minor league baseball. I still haven't figured out why we took a college outfielder first. http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/a...pbp&pid=453311
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08-27-2006, 09:51 AM
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#4 |
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Member
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: North Kansas City, Mo
Posts: 3,842
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Re: Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak
The puzzling thing to me is that Stubbs only real question mark was whether he could hit. You make a #1 pick of a guy scouts really doubt can hit? BUT he has all the tools - shades of JB!
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08-27-2006, 10:46 AM
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#5 |
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Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,106
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Re: Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak
The season isn't over. If Drew Stubbs raises his OPS .032 to .800, does that mean you reverse your position?
I am well aware that Stubbs' performance in Billings is not indicative of a top 10 draft pick, especially one of a college junior. As it does with you, it reduces my expectations of his future success. But I still wish to know what Rookie league performances mean (some baseball people say they are meaningless, so there is always that option). Does the success of the college seniors (Turner, Dorn) mean they are legitimate prospects? For every Chris Denorfia, who surprised people with his performance, there is a Steve Smitherman, who couldn't duplicate his success at AAA and Cincinnati. In the last few years, #1 picks have surprised us. in 2003, Ryan Wagner showed great stuff in his debut (2003) and went all the way to Cincinnati. Many people proclaimed him the next closer and the 2003 draft to be a great one, based on early performances. Three years later, Wagner is struggling to make it back to the majors and our 2003 draftees best prospect is arguable Chris Dickerson. Then in 2004, Homer Bailey and his fellow draftees contributed average or worse performances in their debut. Many people said this draft was awful, we should have selected a completely different set of players. Two years later, Bailey is one of the best prospects in baseball and he 2004 draft, while not looking as good as the 1998 draft, still holds promise for a handful of prospects. I am curious as to why Stubbs isn't hitting better. If he displays weaknesses in his abilities that seem to be unresolvable, and those weaknesses are the cause for his poor performance, then my expectations for his future success will be dropped significantly but at this time, I simply don't know enough about him and his abilities to fully form an opinion about him. |
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08-27-2006, 10:46 AM
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#6 |
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Red's fan
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Montana
Posts: 1,933
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Re: Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak
I strongly disagree with your premise. What everyone is forgetting about Drew Stubbs is how MUCH baseball he has played the last couple years.
Drew Stubbs and the Texas Longhorns started playing games that counted in early February. HERE is a link to their games. They played all the way through the college world series, into the first week of June. During this 2006 college season, Stubbs played in 62 games, had 243 ABs, hit .342, .439 OBP, .580 SLG, 12 HRs, and stole 26 bases in 32 attempts. In 2004 and 2005, Stubbs played on Team USA in international competition. They played a 5 week schedule from July through August those years. "A two-time USA Baseball National Team member as well as Academic All-American, Stubbs was an integral part of Texas 2005 national title squad and helped the Americans capture a gold medal during the 2004 FISU Championships." In 2005 at Texas, Stubbs played 72 games, hit .311, had a .384 OBP, .527 SLG, 11 HRs, and stole 32 bases in 38 attempts. This year Stubbs has again kept playing ball after the college season. He signed quickly, and went to Billings. He has now played 48 games there, hit .251, .366 OBP, .402 SLG, 5 HRs, and stolen 18 bases in 22 attempts. See this Link to Article about Stubbs selection as a finalist for the 2006 Golden Spikes award for the best amateur player in baseball. After all of this baseball, I think Stubbs can be forgiven for being a bit worn down. He has always had a problem with striking out too much, and he needs to work on that. However, if he had 9 more hits at Billings than he does, he would be hitting over .300. Pioneer League baseball is a classic 'small sample size' league. Also Stubbs has missed about 17 games, between his toe injury, and more recently, his concussion from a collision in the outfield. I remain optimisitic. I predict that Drew Stubbs will have a break-out season next year at Dayton.
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Last edited by mbgrayson; 08-27-2006 at 11:15 AM. |
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08-27-2006, 11:47 AM
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#7 |
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Lover of Trivialities
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Portland, OR (West Chester, OH)
Posts: 6,066
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Re: Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak
The knock on Stubbs is his swing. Peep this:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...e_first_round/ This analysis is done by a former pro pitcher-turned-scout named Carlos Gomez. I'm not saying this is some authoritative analysis (and the guy probably knows more about pitching), but it's a possible explanation as to why Stubbs would struggle. --- #8 - Cincinnati Reds - CF Drew Stubbs Crap swing. I reviewed his video more closely and discovered that his hands and his torso disconnect severely. In other words, his torso/hips/legs don’t really help him much in getting the bat moving towards the ball. When so much of the review is based on swing mechanics, it is easy to overlook the other parts of his game. OK, he looks like he’s a good athlete, so there’s hope. That said, I don’t like this pick here, not this high. Grade: C- --- There are other first-round hitters that fare worse, but Stubbs is the highest-chosen to get that low of a grade. The Cubs' Tyler Colvin (13), Washington's Chris Marrero (15), and San Diego's Matt Antonelli (17) all got the same grade range, and Gomez thinks Boston's Jason Place (27) and Atlanta's John Johnson (24) are even worse. Just one scout-based opinion. |
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08-27-2006, 12:07 PM
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#8 | |
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Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,106
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Re: Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak
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08-27-2006, 12:27 PM
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#9 |
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Member
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 531
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Re: Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak
Has anyone had a chance to compare Stubbs' swing while in college and his current swing? Is it possible that the Reds' instructors are trying to tweak Stubbs' swing and his lower than expected numbers are a result of him trying getting comfortable with different mechanics?
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08-27-2006, 06:12 PM
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#10 |
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Shut up Spock!
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Hamilton, Ohio
Posts: 8,111
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Re: Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak
1st round draft choice..w/lots of $$$ invested - he'll get every chance to succeed. I won't worry if I were Stubbs...
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2013 Reds record when I'm attending: 8-3 2013 Dragons record when I'm attending: "We want to be the band to dance to when the bomb drops." - Simon LeBon of Duran Duran
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08-27-2006, 09:12 PM
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#11 | |
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Lover of Trivialities
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Portland, OR (West Chester, OH)
Posts: 6,066
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Re: Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak
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08-27-2006, 10:29 PM
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Unsolicited Opinions
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Right Down Broadway
Posts: 17,636
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Re: Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak
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Can't win with 'em Can't win without 'em |
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08-28-2006, 04:07 AM
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#13 | |
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Redsmetz
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Winton Place
Posts: 10,449
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Re: Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak
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I wonder if some of Stubbs struggles is the change from aluminum bats to wooden bats. Aluminum bats are much more forgiving than a wooden bat or so I hear. |
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08-28-2006, 01:21 PM
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Where's my chair?
Join Date: Apr 2000
Posts: 19,781
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Re: Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak
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I'm not going to panic, considering the guy's career is only 2 months long.
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Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2012 AND 2013! Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot! 
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08-28-2006, 01:40 PM
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#15 | |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: New Jersey, USA
Posts: 5,408
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Re: Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak
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