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 09-01-2006, 08:12 AM #1 Ltlabner 2009: Fail     Join Date: May 2006 Location: Cincinnati Posts: 7,441 Honest Stats Question I used honest in the title lest anyone think this is another stats battle thread. What is the average probablity that an at-bat will produce the following outcomes: out 1B 2B 3B HR I know it's a very broad question and that it will differ for each batter, but I'm currious what the average probability would be for these events to take place. i.e. generally speaking the average probability of a double being hit in any given AB is 8%, or whatever. Further, what is the average probability that a runner on 1B will actaully become a run? I'd be currious to know the same for a runner on 2nd and 3rd also. In other words, if a guy is on 2B what are the chances of him making it home, on average? Thanks in advance for the effort in research, number chrunching, etc. __________________ a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude. I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate Last edited by Ltlabner; 09-01-2006 at 09:13 AM.
 09-01-2006, 09:59 AM #2 redsmetz Redsmetz     Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Winton Place Posts: 10,814 Re: Honest Stats Question I found this article, but after scanning it,I don't think it's exactly getting at what you want. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...n-probability/
 09-01-2006, 11:22 AM #3 dfs Member   Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,530 Re: Honest Stats Question I'll give you some rough numbers for the first part of your query. I've pulled my numbers from www.baseballreference.com using last years national league numbers. Year and league matter, but they'll be close to this years numbers. I don't know if hpb counts as an AB or not, so We may miss a couple plate appearances on stuff like that and there are always questionable official scoring decisions...enough excuses on to the numbers. 88,120 at bats. 8,396 walks 23,058 hits 4,754 doubles 468 tripples 2,580 homers 88,120 at bats + 8396 walks means roughly 96,516 plate appearances. 23,058 hits - 4,754 double - 468 tripples -2,580 homers = 15,256 singles 8,396/88,120 = 8% of batters will walk. 15,256/88,120 = 17% chance of a single 4,754/88,120 = 5% chance of a double 468/88,120 = 0.5% chance of a tripple 2,580/88,120 = 3% chance of a homer My guess is the best way to illustrate the second part of your query involves a run estimation chart. I don't believe I've ever seen anyone calculate it that way. A run estimation chart doesn't exactly answer your question, but I think it's a usefull tool. Since BP published their's this last year, lets use their version for this year. runners No Outs One out Two outs 000 0.54566 0.30029 0.10987 003 1.48395 0.98037 0.36963 020 1.15429 0.74478 0.36556 023 1.91182 1.44861 0.5824 100 0.9228 0.56595 0.23718 103 1.83519 1.18815 0.47894 120 1.56706 0.95087 0.45006 123 2.3858 1.64545 0.81739 First of all lets laugh at the good guys at BP for carryin their precision out to 5 decimal points. Nothing like a good chuckle. Then let's go about interpreting what that table means. That means if the bases are loaded and nobody is out, you team should score two runs or more. Likewise if there's a man on third and two outs, you're going to score a run about a third of the time. Hope that helps.
09-01-2006, 11:35 AM   #4
Cyclone792
Playoffs

Join Date: May 2005
Location: Cincinnati, OH
Posts: 6,259
Re: Honest Stats Question

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ltlabner I used honest in the title lest anyone think this is another stats battle thread. What is the average probablity that an at-bat will produce the following outcomes: out 1B 2B 3B HR I know it's a very broad question and that it will differ for each batter, but I'm currious what the average probability would be for these events to take place. i.e. generally speaking the average probability of a double being hit in any given AB is 8%, or whatever. Further, what is the average probability that a runner on 1B will actaully become a run? I'd be currious to know the same for a runner on 2nd and 3rd also. In other words, if a guy is on 2B what are the chances of him making it home, on average? Thanks in advance for the effort in research, number chrunching, etc.
Use plate appearances instead of at bats. With plate appearances, the 2005 probabilities/league averages were approximately as follows per any given PA:

Out: 67.00 percent
1B: 15.69 percent
2B: 4.76 percent
3B: 0.48 percent
HR: 2.69 percent
BB: 8.16 percent
HBP: 0.96 percent

For baserunner/out situations, use a run expectancy chart and a run frequency chart.

Tango Tiger Run Expectancy Chart: 1999-2002

Tango Tiger Run Frequency Chart: 1999-2002

EDIT: Looks like dfs got it before I did
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Last edited by Cyclone792; 09-01-2006 at 11:41 AM.

09-01-2006, 12:52 PM   #5
dfs
Member

Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 1,530
Re: Honest Stats Question

Quote:
 Looks like dfs got it before I did
well, except I screwed my numbers up.

oops.

8,396/96,516 = 8% of batters will walk.
15,256/96,516 = 15% chance of a single
4,754/96,516 = 5% chance of a double
468/96,516 = 0.5% chance of a tripple
2,580/96,516 = 2.5% chance of a homer

Thanks to redsmetz for the sanity check.

09-01-2006, 02:00 PM   #6
vaticanplum
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 6,987
Re: Honest Stats Question

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Cyclone792 Use plate appearances instead of at bats. With plate appearances, the 2005 probabilities/league averages were approximately as follows per any given PA: Out: 67.00 percent 1B: 15.69 percent 2B: 4.76 percent 3B: 0.48 percent HR: 2.69 percent BB: 8.16 percent HBP: 0.96 percent
Well, there you have it. Absolute definitive proof of what I have been saying for years: that a triple is the sexiest thing a batter can do in baseball. Not the most crucial, not the most exciting, but the sexiest. I guess it's because it's the rarest.

We can have the whole "which is sexier: stand-up or sliding triple?" debate another day. It's a good one though.
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09-01-2006, 02:14 PM   #7
redsmetz
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Re: Honest Stats Question

Quote:
 Originally Posted by vaticanplum Well, there you have it. Absolute definitive proof of what I have been saying for years: that a triple is the sexiest thing a batter can do in baseball. Not the most crucial, not the most exciting, but the sexiest. I guess it's because it's the rarest. We can have the whole "which is sexier: stand-up or sliding triple?" debate another day. It's a good one though.
Of course, the inside the park home run is probably rarer. I remember writing and suggesting that they add one more category to the game they do in the 8th inning where they give away so much money and tickets with a grand slam winning someone a car. I suggested adding one more bigger prize if the Grand Slam was an inside the parker.

09-01-2006, 02:35 PM   #8
Ltlabner
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: Cincinnati
Posts: 7,441
Re: Honest Stats Question

Quote:
 Originally Posted by vaticanplum We can have the whole "which is sexier: stand-up or sliding triple?" debate another day. It's a good one though.

Oh lord...not another "sliding vs over-running the base" arguments. Yeeeeccchhh. The last one of those in here reminded me of the "Airwolf vs Blue Thunder" debates when I was in 5th grade.
__________________
a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

09-01-2006, 02:37 PM   #9
vaticanplum
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 6,987
Re: Honest Stats Question

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ltlabner Oh lord...not another "sliding vs over-running the base" arguments. Yeeeeccchhh. The last one of those in here reminded me of the "Airwolf vs Blue Thunder" debates when I was in 5th grade.

These things are VERY IMPORTANT. Uberimportant, even.
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There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

09-01-2006, 02:41 PM   #10
Highlifeman21
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Bristol, just around the corner from ESPN
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Re: Honest Stats Question

Quote:
 Originally Posted by vaticanplum Well, there you have it. Absolute definitive proof of what I have been saying for years: that a triple is the sexiest thing a batter can do in baseball. Not the most crucial, not the most exciting, but the sexiest. I guess it's because it's the rarest. We can have the whole "which is sexier: stand-up or sliding triple?" debate another day. It's a good one though.
Sexier, sliding triple.

If you got there standing up, Wendell Kim would be wavin ya home.

Mark Berry, on the other hand, would not. He probably would have kept you at 2B.

09-01-2006, 03:13 PM   #11
vaticanplum
Mon chou Choo

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 6,987
Re: Honest Stats Question

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 Sexier, sliding triple. If you got there standing up, Wendell Kim would be wavin ya home. Mark Berry, on the other hand, would not. He probably would have kept you at 2B.
See, I disagree (and I've always been in the minority in this argument). If there's a chance you can make it home, or the third-base coach is waving you home, by all means, run like the wind, young grasshopper. If there's any chance you're not going to make it to third, slide your guts out. But -- BUT -- if you know you're going to stay put at third and there's ANY possibility that you can cruise in there on your feet like it's the easiest thing in the world...oh my god. DO IT. Usually the guys who can pull off stand-up triples are the fleet-footed players anyway, so if they're not going home, you know they really can't get there safely. So they just breeze on in there, maybe take a smoke break, like it was no effort at all, when those figures above prove that a triple is SO difficult. If they can't get home, then it's like -- like a double that was never meant to go beyond that, but not only did he do that, he did it with ease. There is no word for that but sexy. It's not gritty, it's not groovy, just sexy.

Ryan Freel had a textbook stand-up triple in Houston in early June. Ryan Freel is exactly the kind of player who can pull off a sexy stand-up triple: he'd slide if he needed to, he'd go home if he could. But circumstances dictate that he just run into third and stays there. If I could set up house at the hot corner, I would.
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There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

 09-01-2006, 03:29 PM #12 Ltlabner 2009: Fail     Join Date: May 2006 Location: Cincinnati Posts: 7,441 Re: Honest Stats Question Many thanks for your efforts! GAC will buy you a case of beer to thank you for your time. Just talk to him to make the arrangements. __________________ a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude. I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate
09-01-2006, 03:47 PM   #13
danwl
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Location: Albuquerque
Posts: 52
Re: Honest Stats Question

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ltlabner The last one of those in here reminded me of the "Airwolf vs Blue Thunder" debates when I was in 5th grade.
Dude, that is Airwolf all the way. With Jan Michael Vincent and Ernie Borgnine PLUS the theme music? No match.

I always knew that Jan Ullrich reminded me of somebody and now I know that it was Stringfellow Hawke. thanks!

09-01-2006, 04:06 PM   #14
Ltlabner
2009: Fail

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Cincinnati
Posts: 7,441
Re: Honest Stats Question

Quote:
 Originally Posted by danwl Dude, that is Airwolf all the way. With Jan Michael Vincent and Ernie Borgnine PLUS the theme music? No match.

With you 100% partner!

Blue Thunder was ok but it had nothing on Airwolf.
__________________
a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

 09-01-2006, 04:37 PM #15 texasdave ZCTRMTP!!!!!   Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 10,293 Re: Honest Stats Question I remember the time Eric Davis pulled off a very stylish stand-up triple in the Astrodome. He drove the ball to deep left-center. This ball had trouble written all over it and the Astro defense reacted accordingly. Eric flew around first and headed for second. It must have been at this moment that the seed of deception was planted in his brain. And a clever ruse it was indeed. For a stride or two he eased up as if he intended to glide safely into second. The Astro left fielder mistook this as a sign of surrender and paid dearly. He pivoted and floated a throw towards third. Eric kicked it into a gear few mortals possess and eased into third standing up. It silenced the crowd.

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