9/6/06 - Reds vs. Giants Game Thread

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

Dunn isn't going to 1st base.

And the Reds will always be - the Reds.

ZZZZ.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by Ricardo Cabesa

a 30 point OPS drop could be entirely random. Having said that I think this year has to be categorized as a minor disappointment for Dunn.

No doubt, next year is year 27, I keep him soley for that.

Even despite the belief that Andre Dawson will be able to step in and replace Dunn.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by westofyou

No doubt, next year is year 27, I keep him soley for that.

there is adequate historical precedent for bigger guys finally figuring out as they edge toward 30 (Frank Howard and Derek Lee come to mind).

[oneupper]

Originally Posted by westofyou

NL OPS dropped 12 points 2004 -2005 that's a factor.

Barry was injured.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

IMO, they already need to pick up an OF. Freel is not the answer everyday.

Chris Young sure would look nice about now.

[BRM]

From Marc's blog.

Jerry Narron, when asked if he considered bunting Aurilia to move Clayton to third:

"No way. No. He’s swinging the bat really well. Knew they were going to come in with Kline on Dunn and Dunn has just as good a chance of hitting the ball out of the ballpark as he does getting him in from third base.

"Shoot – you’re going to take the bat out of the hands of the guy who’s been your hottest hitter over the last 10 days? Not me."

[WMR]

Originally Posted by OldXOhio

We'll see how WK reacts without the pressure of a penant race on his mind. I for one am anxious to see what he comes up with.

Color me NERVOUS.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by Reds4Life

So now we are back to the "Dunn sucks" stuff again?

Oy.

Power hitter who K's a lot in a slump will do that

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by Ricardo Cabesa

Chris Young sure would look nice about now.

Yep.

[vaticanplum]

Oh my lord Steel and company, you keep quiet, don't even wish for such a thing. I understand what you're saying but the solution is not to ship Dunn off; it's to fix the stupid guys who are messing him up and smack them across the face when they don't appreciate him. No more Kearns, no more FeLo = Dunn stays, ie. somebody appreciates the fact that he is one of the most valuable Reds in recent memory. So the solution here is to change their approach towards him, not to get rid of him.

I was at the game today, which sucked awfully, obviously. I really need to stop going to see them -- they are 1-5 with me in attendance this year, 0-3 at Great American, ie. I have yet to see the Reds win a game there ever. The hitting, despite .5 seconds of intelligence, was awful, but in all fairness the pitching was not that bad. Schoenweis had about three or four terrific pitches that were the highlight of my day, really terrific stuff.

All that aside, that ballpark is really growing on me. What an absolutely perfect place to spend an afternoon, up in the sun, beer, scorecard, view, baseball...I think the park is well-done and underrated. There were five people there. Three were Giants fans. And yes, they all booed the last time Dunn struck out.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Be careful what you wish for. Washington probably will offer a couple more Majewskis, and Wayne will be tempted.

Nope, Wayne will target Harden who is 2 pitches away from TJ. I haven't seen any posts on Guardado and his pending surgery...I hope Wayne implemented a good health insurance plan.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by vaticanplum

All that aside, that ballpark is really growing on me. What an absolutely perfect place to spend an afternoon, up in the sun, beer, scorecard, view, baseball...I think the park is well-done and underrated. There were five people there. Three were Giants fans. And yes, they all booed the last time Dunn struck out.

I completely agree. The Reds do a ton of things wrong, but the park isn't one of them. It's absolutely first-rate, IMO. I love that it's so open and not goofy retro. And the light-towers are marvelous. Love the park. Now get a good team in it.

[mbgrayson]

Originally Posted by guttle11

Aurilia should have been bunting in the 8th.

I am glad Aurilia wasn't bunting. The number of expected runs drops with a runner on third and one out, as compared to a runner on second and no outs.

See THIS LINK for a detailed discussion of this. On average, a situation with a runner on third and one out, assuming the bunt is successful, yields about .907 runs on average. A runner on second with no outs yields 1.054 runs on average. When you bunt, there is always a chance of an unsuccesful bunt. But even if successful, you would be a worse situation than before.

This is even more true with Aurilia, a .300 hitter at the plate, and Dunn on deck. Three times out of ten Aurilia will score the runner on a hit. If Dunn comes up with a runner on third and one out, he has a significant chance of striking out, as he did. All year, Dunn has only 3 sac flies (in 600 plate appearances). Dunn is NOT a good contact hitter, and his chances of advancing a runner on third are below average. (Of course if he hits a HR, the runner scores regardless of what base they were on...)

On this one, Narron played the odds and lost. But at least it was the right statistical decision. See Narrons comments over on Marc's blog HERE.

[Big Klu]

I had to work today, so I didn't see the game. However, I taped it and just finished watching it. (I didn't know the outcome until I actually watched it.) It was a disappointing loss, IMO, especially since Felipe Alou was using a "Sunday Special" lineup of his own against the Reds' best lineup vs. LHP given the current circumstances regarding Griffey.


A few observations:

1) I thought Sun-Woo Kim pitched pretty well after a shaky first two innings. (It looked like he had the jitters at the beginning of the game.) 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K is not a bad line.

2) Norris Hopper had a nice PH-single in the fifth. (For some reason, he reminds me of Greg Tubbs from 1993.)

3) Ryan Franklin allowing a HR to Ray Durham on an 0-2 pitch is unforgivable! There are two things in baseball I can't stand--batters taking called third strikes, and pitchers throwing hittable 0-2 pitches.

4) Scott Hatteberg should have pinch-hit for Royce Clayton in the 8th inning. It worked out, as Royce hit an RBI double, but Hatte still should have been up in that situation.


No changes today.

Updated Reds HR list (players in italics are active):

Reds All-Time Home Run Leaders
1. Johnny Bench - 389
2. Frank Robinson - 324
3. Tony Perez - 287
4. Ted Kluszewski - 251
5. George Foster - 244
6. Eric Davis - 203
7. Barry Larkin - 198
8. Adam Dunn - 197
9. Vada Pinson - 186
10. Wally Post - 172
11. Ken Griffey, Jr. - 164
12. Gus Bell - 160
13. Joe Morgan - 152
13. Pete Rose - 152
15. Lee May - 147
16. Dan Driessen - 133
17. Reggie Sanders - 125
18. Ernie Lombardi - 120
19. Sean Casey - 118
20. Frank McCormick - 110
21. Dave Parker - 107
22. Chris Sabo - 104
23. Dave Concepcion - 101
24. Gordy Coleman - 98
25. Paul O'Neill - 96

[lollipopcurve]

A few observations:

1) I thought Sun-Woo Kim pitched pretty well after a shaky first two innings. (It looked like he had the jitters at the beginning of the game.) 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K is not a bad line.

2) Norris Hopper had a nice PH-single in the fifth. (For some reason, he reminds me of Greg Tubbs from 1993.)

3) Ryan Franklin allowing a HR to Ray Durham on an 0-2 pitch is unforgivable! There are two things in baseball I can't stand--batters taking called third strikes, and pitchers throwing hittable 0-2 pitches.

4) Scott Hatteberg should have pinch-hit for Royce Clayton in the 8th inning. It worked out, as Royce hit an RBI double, but Hatte still should have been up in that situation.

Interesting points. I have some related thoughts.

1. Kim got hammered. His line conceals the fact that there were several rockets hit right at people.

2. I like Hopper. He's got a nice short stroke and it seems like he'd make a lot of hard contact (though without much power). He should be on the 40-man going into next year, and I'd like to see him make the team. I'm not sure he isn't better than Denorfia.

3. Ryan Franklin inspires no confidence in me.

4. Hatteberg should have hit for Ross in the 8th. Ross had an absolutely terrible game offensively and defensively. He looked tired to me, coming back after a night game.

And...

5. Dunn is fried. The guy needs a rest every now and then.