Well, this sounds bad.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by membengal

I know it's borderline insane, but no guarantee that they pass this way again, this close to the playoffs, at any point in homer's pre-free agent years. Heck 90 wins is sometimes five games from the playoffs. So, we are here, the NL is as watered down as I have ever seen it, they are still breathing, is five innings of Homer better than five innings of Michalek? I bet it is. Will five innings of Homer mess up his arm or head for future years? Dunno. Seems unlikely, but dunno.

Just saying, if they sweep the Pads, are in this thing come this weekend, it will be a hard pill to swallow with someone like Bailey available and not used.

Ah well, I presume it will be swallow time. And not saying it is necessarily wrong, but still seems like something they may have entertained at some point...

I completely agree.

I have little faith that this GM will put together a 90 + win squad with his current philosophy.

You've got to go for it. No guarantees at all of a return.

[Red Leader]

Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar

got to love that combination of Johnson, Woo, & Michalak

That's the equivalent to:

Take your first AB's in the top of the 1st and pray for rain for 3 days.

[redsfan30]

Too bad for Eric. He gets crapped on alot here, but he's actually had a somewhat decent year.

I've got to think Bailey is going to get some consideration if Eric is indeed done.

[Puffy]

4 man rotation for the rest of the year. Strict 100 pitch limits because of the three days rest. Use that 12 man bullpen you've got.

[KoryMac5]

Originally Posted by Puffy

4 man rotation for the rest of the year. Strict 100 pitch limits because of the three days rest. Use that 12 man bullpen you've got.

Bronson seems to like the 4 man rotation. I think the Reds would go this route than throw in the likes of Johnson or Mays.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I completely agree.

I have little faith that this GM will put together a 90 + win squad with his current philosophy.

You've got to go for it. No guarantees at all of a return.

I can see the argument for this. However, if they were going to do it, they should've called up Homer instead of Michalek about a month ago.

It's not mathmatically impossible now to make the playoffs, but with SD, Phil, Florida, and SF ahead of us, it's very tough. If we stay with a five man rotation, we've still got to pitch a stinker in there.

Even though Lohse has worked out pretty good so far, Wayne should've picked up another starter at the deadline instead of focusing primarily on relievers. Leiber (for example) could've been a big difference maker and probably could've been had for Gernamo if the Reds took on all his salary. Of course, not doing "the Trade" would've likely helped in August when the offense disappeared.

So in summary, at this point, I don't think the risk/reward is worth bringing up Homer now. We've got maybe a 5% chance to make the playoffs at this point. There's too many teams ahead of us in the WC, and not enough games left on the schedule.

[RANDY IN INDY]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I completely agree.

I have little faith that this GM will put together a 90 + win squad with his current philosophy.

You've got to go for it. No guarantees at all of a return.

For a guy who has been on the job, less than a year, thrown into it very late, and found himself in the middle of a pennant race, I find it hard, personally, to make any blanket statements about his philosophy.

[Cyclone792]

The Reds have to do one very important thing for this dilemma to matter, and that is they have to make it to Saturday's game in Chicago and still have some semblance of a chance, otherwise any discussion about Homer coming up is a moot point.

Lohse goes tonight against Peavy, Harang tomorrow afternoon to finish the Pads series, and finally Arroyo Friday night in Chicago. It may be too much to ask, but given our situation in the standings and in the rotation, the Reds would be doing themselves a massive favor by winning all three of those games with what amounts to our best three starting pitchers in the rotation. Even winning two out of the next three keeps us in the race, albeit with a much lesser chance than flat out winning all three.

If we fail to win at least two of the next three games, IMO, it's a moot point and a lost cause anyway. With our three best starting pitchers going each of the next three games, they each need to pitch well and give us a chance heading into the weekend. Giving us a chance is, at minimum, winning two of the next three, with the obvious best case scenario of taking all three games.

If that happens, and only if that happens, then the discussions about what to do for Saturday's game and Sunday's game becomes a real issue worth worrying about.

[Heath]

Originally Posted by RANDY IN CHAR NC

For a guy who has been on the job, less than a year, thrown into it very late, and found himself in the middle of a pennant race, I find it hard, personally, to make any blanket statements about his philosophy.

Especially since his philosophy is based on an organization that has seen winning records in the last 5 years including 3 division championships.

But he's a dolt.

[membengal]

Yeah, cyclone, my query on Bailey is only in the event (unlikely, but ya never know...) that Cincy sweeps SD and the game on Saturday means more than it would if they drop two of three between now and then.

[TheBigLebowski]

Sounds like we're in for some heaping helpings of Ryan Franklin the rest of the way.

Life is bueno, mi amigos.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by Heath

Especially since his philosophy is based on an organization that has seen winning records in the last 5 years including 3 division championships.

But he's a dolt.

I'm guessing Wayne comes to that same conclusion about some fans. Obviously he can't come out and say that, although he acknowledged that he would probably get crucified for the Nats trade, I thought he was upfront on that, recognized he paid a high price, but also knew he had to do something about a bullpen that was killing us.

Keep on working.

[Aronchis]

Originally Posted by redsfan30

Too bad for Eric. He gets crapped on alot here, but he's actually had a somewhat decent year.

I've got to think Bailey is going to get some consideration if Eric is indeed done.

Bailey will not get any consideration. Not only is he not ready from a pitching standpoint, he may be exhausted from the "mental" side of it as well, being a 20 year old pitcher, it no surprise after 145innings.

[Cyclone792]

One other quick note on Bailey himself ... and that is that people should be realistically envisioning what kind of start Homer Bailey could give us to begin with.

Let's assume for a moment that Homer Bailey is ready for the majors at this moment. What's important to remember is that Bailey being "ready" doesn't necessarily equate to Bailey coming up, making a start, dominating and throwing up seven innings with only two runs allowed. That's not a very realistic scenario, and if that's what people are envisioning, they're likely to be disappointed.

First, Bailey would be on an extremely strict/low pitch count due to his age and workload already this season, and he'd probably throw no more than 100 pitches at the absolute max. Given that Bailey does have a history of control problems in the minors combined with his ability to strike batters out, he'd probably burn up those 100 pitches pretty quickly.

Second, as I said earlier with Bailey being "ready," it does not necessarily equate to dominance. Simply being ready means that Bailey could pitch adequately for the Reds right now while continuing to grow, mature and advance up through the learning curve over the next few seasons. Pitching adequately is just that, pitching adequately. He's not yet likely to go out and dominate, but he would have the ability hopefully to avoid getting shelled.

With those factors in mind, well what kind of pitching line could we expect from Bailey? IMO, a five plus inning effort while only allowing two or three runs is somewhat reasonable and should probably be considered successful. Given the low pitch count and incredibly short leash on Bailey, the bullpen would still be leaned on heavily to pitch a large quantity of vastly important innings in any Bailey start.

Is it worth the risk to bring him up and start him in a game where we'll still heavily rely on the bullpen regardless? Again, that's a very important question that hopefully is answered correctly, whichever answer that is.

[TeamSelig]

how much is Miltons buyout at the end of the year?