Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Stubbs power isn't really a question mark. Its there when he makes contact. The question is how much it grows.

18 HR in 800+ PA doesn't exactly suggest masher to me. 20 HR upside is nice, but hardly "great".

Here's an upside comp I've not seen made that might actually be pretty accurate -- Curtis Granderson, the 2005/6, non-inflated-BABIP one.

I'm really interested to see how his IsoD progresses as he moves up the food chain and is forced to swing more often.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

That's fair to say, but that wasn't the point. The point was that Stubbs' ability to take a walk is more than merely 'a little above average'. Because the other players are coming from less-advanced backgrounds, I'd say that they should all be happy if the end is result is having an IsoD in the neighborhood of Drew Stubbs'.

Yeah, but you would expect pitchers in AA and AAA to have a bit more control than pitchers in Low A. So it remains to be seen if the walks he has taken were a product of pitch recognition or the product of lesser pitching.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Yeah, but you would expect pitchers in AA and AAA to have a bit more control than pitchers in Low A. So it remains to be seen if the walks he has taken were a product of pitch recognition or the product of lesser pitching.

His strikezone judgement isn't really an issue. I believe he was taking too many pitches because he felt the job of the leadoff hitter was to do so. When he moved out of the leadoff spot, his average went up, slugging went up, discipline went down, strikeout rate went down.

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

His SB% is bad because the dude was playing with turf toe all year (and the year before).

Hit "turf toe" was so bad that his team decided he needed to have 38 Stolen Base attempts. Wow. That's a lot for a guy who couldn't run well on the basepaths, but then ran "like a gazelle" in CF from your accounts.

Stubbs' "turf toe" is likely even more of a non-issue than whatever you wanted to make up for Homer Bailey in 2007.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by SteelSD

Hit "turf toe" was so bad that his team decided he needed to have 38 Stolen Base attempts. Wow. That's a lot for a guy who couldn't run well on the basepaths, but then ran "like a gazelle" in CF from your accounts.

Stubbs' "turf toe" is likely even more of a non-issue than whatever you wanted to make up for Homer Bailey in 2007.

Glides like one. There is a difference.

Now, as for the stolen base attempts.... the minor leagues are for learning. Maybe the Reds wanted him to work on his technique, despite being hurt because they knew he couldn't hurt his toe anymore, but that he could certainly work on reading pitchers and working on his jumps. Thats certainly plausible.... well unless you want to just hate on Drew Stubbs for no real reason at all.

As for the last comment.... well, you are probably right. I make up injuries for players all the time that magically lead to DL time and surgeries. Rumor has it I made up a rumor that Francisco Liriano was going to need surgery back in 2002.

[cincyinco]

Anyone who's followed luriano for a good amount of time could see his injuries comin a mile away. He had major arm issues long before he was a twin while in the giants system. Its not surprising at all and unless he changes his mechanics its likely he may succomb to further injury.

As for stubbs and the rest of this thead... Can someone just close this already? We get it. Stubbs is already a monumental failure because he's not worthy of his draft pick as a top 10 talent. He is a mirage and can't hit with a wood bat. He will likely have next to no meaningful impact until 2010 if at all. Blah blah blah. The horse was already dead and now eveyones beat it so much the thing has lost its teeth.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by cincyinco

As for stubbs and the rest of this thead... Can someone just close this already? We get it. Stubbs is already a monumental failure because he's not worthy of his draft pick as a top 10 talent. He is a mirage and can't hit with a wood bat. He will likely have next to no meaningful impact until 2010 if at all. Blah blah blah. The horse was already dead and now eveyones beat it so much the thing has lost its teeth.

I agree though. I just really wanted to post this picture.

[OesterPoster]

Originally Posted by SteelSD

Hit "turf toe" was so bad that his team decided he needed to have 38 Stolen Base attempts. Wow. That's a lot for a guy who couldn't run well on the basepaths, but then ran "like a gazelle" in CF from your accounts.

Stubbs' "turf toe" is likely even more of a non-issue than whatever you wanted to make up for Homer Bailey in 2007.

Not to nitpick...but you already did, so I will too.

Turf toe affects the ability to plant your foot solidly and get going quickly. Running in the outfield would be less prone to a turf toe injury. Anyone who has seen Stubbs play CF knows that he gets a great jump on the ball, so once he gets moving, he does run like a "gazelle". That initial plant foot on the bad toe might not be noticed since he can make up for the deficiency with his top-end speed and instincts.

Baserunning is completely different. Trying to steal a base or break cleanly out of the box is severely hampered by a bad turf toe.

As far as the 38 attempts number...the Dragons players pretty much had green lights all year to run, and most of them did. Stubbs, Parker, Turner, Heisey, Francisco, Phipps, they all attempted a ton of stolen bases.

[LouisvilleCARDS]

I don't even know what level the guy is playing on, but maybe he just needs a Homer Bailey thrown into the fire moment. He did better at the higher levels than the lower levels - what if they just sent him up to Triple A for a bit to see what happens?

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by LouisvilleCARDS

I don't even know what level the guy is playing on, but maybe he just needs a Homer Bailey thrown into the fire moment. He did better at the higher levels than the lower levels - what if they just sent him up to Triple A for a bit to see what happens?

Eh...I think that would impair his development even further. I don't advocate that.

[fearofpopvol1]

will this be the season we find out or do we still need another year plus to make a real claim either way?

it's also pretty interesting to read the posts from earlier in this thread. and it looks like the TRF/dougdirt lovefest (especially regarding Stubbs) has been in full effect for quite a while.

[RED VAN HOT]

We never reached consensus on Adam Dunn's value. Why would anyone believe we could on Stubbs? It would take an OPS less than .500 or greater than 1.200.

[RedlegJake]

Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT

We never reached consensus on Adam Dunn's value. Why would anyone believe we could on Stubbs? It would take an OPS less than .500 or greater than 1.200.

I agree. The lines in the sand have been drawn and by this time just about everyone is on one side or the other of these Stubbs - Dunn - Washington Trade debates. We're well past the point of influencing other's to see our personal points and in the territory of simply arguing for the sake of it.

[fearofpopvol1]

I gotta admit...Stubbs is looking pretty good in Louisville so far this year. His strikeout rate is still high, but that's probably not surprising.

His other stats are pretty respectable though. If he keeps this up, I think he probably gets a call-up in September. He may force Wily T. out of town at some point next year. I'm wondering if a Stubbs/Dickerson platoon in CF might not be a bad idea for next year (assuming Walt moves Wily T.)?

[ChatterRed]

I've already labeled him a bust. Let's move on.