Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

[RedDevil]

What level will Stubbs be playing at next year

[GoReds33]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Doug: I know it's been hashed out many times on the board, but after looking at the list above, would you think Stubbs has been the biggest disappointment on the field so far of the first 22 picks?

I know this was directed at Doug, but I'm sharing my opinion. Stubbs was by far the biggest disapointment, before he ripped off a couple big months. Now he isn't by far the biggest disappointment, but he's close.

[AmarilloRed]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

What level will Stubbs be playing at next year

I would imagine he would be at Sarasota in the High A level, but if he does well there he could be quickly promoted to Chattanooga.

[GoReds33]

Originally Posted by AmarilloRed

I would imagine he would be at Sarasota in the High A level, but if he does well there he could be quickly promoted to Chattanooga.

Let's hope so. I like his chances of making AA or AAA next year. He is a good player, he just needs seasoning.

[HokieRed]

I predict breakout for Stubbs next year, with him finishing the year at AAA.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

I predict breakout for Stubbs next year, with him finishing the year at AAA.

I hope not. If Stubbs isn't a bust, that will take away about half the discussion from this forum.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I hope not. If Stubbs isn't a bust, that will take away about half the discussion from this forum.

Nah, someone else will step up and become a "bust" next year.

[Topcat]

Only only "bust" of drew Stubbs will be in the Hall of Fame , ok well I hope so

[RedsManRick]

An analysis of minor league baserunning over at BP shows that Stubbs was among the worst baserunners in the minors last year

But even as the overall champion, (Pellot) couldn't match Drew Stubbs of Dayton in the stolen base department; with an EqSBR of -7.9, Stubbs found himself last among all minor league runners in that category. How did he do it? Stubbs was caught stealing 15 times in 38 attempts, and was also picked off four times. Ouch.

For the unintiated, the metric is in runs, meaning Stubbs cost the Dragons nearly 8 runs relative to average through his efforts stealing bases. He was average on his advancing on hits. Just one more thing for us doubters to complain about.

[camisadelgolf]

I'm not claiming Drew Stubbs is a good baserunner, but I really doubt he is the worst amongst all minor league baserunners. I think his foot injury is a factor. Also, and this may be a stretch, maybe the Reds were trying to do some experimenting with his baserunning. When you change a pitcher's mechanics in the minor leagues, you will often see a decline in his numbers as he adjusts--maybe Stubbs had a similar thing going on.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I'm not claiming Drew Stubbs is a good baserunner, but I really doubt he is the worst amongst all minor league baserunners. I think his foot injury is a factor. Also, and this may be a stretch, maybe the Reds were trying to do some experimenting with his baserunning. When you change a pitcher's mechanics in the minor leagues, you will often see a decline in his numbers as he adjusts--maybe Stubbs had a similar thing going on.

Don't confuse ability with performance -- it's a common mistake when looking back. I'm quite sure that Stubbs is nowhere near the worst baserunner in the minors from an ability standpoint. That said, his baserunning was among the most costly in the minors in 2007. My apologies if my phrasing blurred the distinction.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Don't confuse ability with performance -- it's a common mistake when looking back. I'm quite sure that Stubbs is nowhere near the worst baserunner in the minors from an ability standpoint. That said, his baserunning was among the most costly in the minors in 2007. My apologies if my phrasing blurred the distinction.

I should have known. I often take things too literally.

I'm uninitiated. Did the fact that Drew Stubbs had more plate appearances than most minor leaguers have an affect on the calculation?

[RedsManRick]

The baserunning methodology is pretty interesting. It's not based on plate appearances but rather a specfic set of base running advancement opportunities. This is all from the BP site.

Basically, you get a +- runs score in 4 categories.

EqGAR: Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs. The number of theoretical runs contributed by a baserunner or baserunners above what would be expected given the number and quality of baserunning opportunities. EqGAR is based on a multi-year Run Expectancy matrix and considers the following scenarios:
# Runner on first only with less than two outs, ground ball or bunt is hit to an infielder where a hit or an error is not credited
# Runner on second only with less than two outs, ground ball or bunt is hit to an infielder where a hit or an error is not credited
# Runner on third only with less than two outs, ground ball or bunt is hit to an infielder where a hit or an error is not credited

EqSBR: Equivalent Stolen Base Runs. The number of theoretical runs contributed by a baserunner or baserunners above what would be expected given the number and quality of their baserunning opportunities. EqSBR is based on a multi-year Run Expectancy matrix and considers both stolen base attempts and pick-offs.

EqAAR: Equivalent Air Advancement Runs. The number of theoretical runs contributed by a baserunner or baserunners above what would be expected given the number and quality of their baserunning opportunities. EqAAR is based on a multi-year Run Expectancy matrix, is park adjusted, and considers the following scenarios:
# Runner on first with second and third unoccupied, less than two outs, a line drive, pop-up, or fly ball is caught by an outfielder
# Runner on second but not third, less than two outs, a line drive, pop-up, or fly ball is caught by an outfielder
# Runner on third with other bases optionally occupied, less than two outs, a line drive, pop-up, or fly ball is caught by an outfielder

EqHAR: Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs. The number of theoretical runs contributed by a baserunner or baserunners above what would have been expected given the number and quality of opportunities. EqHAR considers advancement from first on singles, second on singles, and first on doubles and is adjusted for park and based on a multi-year Run Expectancy Matrix.

EqOAR: Equivalent Other Advancement No definition in the BP Glossary, but based on the number of opps, I'm guessing this is all the other standard chances to move up a base.

Here's how Stubbs did:

Type	Runs	Opp
EqGAR	 0.6	25
EqSBR	-7.9	44
EqAAR	 0.0	37
EqHAR	 0.4	48
EqOAR	-0.2	302
------
EqRuns  -7.1	456

Basically, as the article says, Stubbs ran in to a lot of outs on stolen base attempts and pickoffs. Otherwise, he was slightly above average. Those caught stealings can kill you though. That said, I don't care how many times a guy in the minor league gets caught stealing. I'm glad that he's running so much as it can only help him improve. Hopefully we'll see that success rate improve over the next few years. What's interesting about this to me is that, like we saw in 2007 with Freel, a player can very quickly swing his value by 5+ runs simply by stealing bases more efficiently.

[camisadelgolf]

That is very interesting. Thank you for posting that.

[dougdirt]

Given his foot injury, and at times during the season I could see him limping I take his running with a grain of salt for last season.