BA Minor League All-Star Team

[New Fever]

They give us some love. Three Reds made it. It's free content.



http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...es/262497.html

[LincolnparkRed]

So what is the consensus timetable on when Bruce might make his reds debut? Will he follow a homer like rise or are OF more incremental?

[Red Leader]

Originally Posted by LincolnparkRed

So what is the consensus timetable on when Bruce might make his reds debut? Will he follow a homer like rise or are OF more incremental?

I would think that Bruce would start the year in High A next year and probably be promoted (if continuing to play well) to AA by the end of next year (2007). In 2008, I'd guess that he'd start the year in AA and potentially move up to AAA around mid year (again, if playing well and no injuries). He could be a potential Sept call up in 2008. In 2009, I expect him to be a starting OF on the Reds.

[Aronchis]

With a guy like Bruce, his play makes the call. He blows up in 2008 like Dunn did in 2001, you bring him up.

[paulrichjr]

Or we could trade him for Coco Crisp. Proven veteren you know.

[RedsManRick]

I'm curious, what is the failure rate of top offensive prospects (who have actually accomplished something in the minors -- not just pure hype monsters) relative to top pitching prospects. It seems like there just aren't that many great offensive guys who fall flat, particularly ones ahead of the curve.

[dougdirt]

Pitchers flop a lot more often than hitters. At first thought thats what comes to mind. I dont have much to do this evening, I will go over the last 10 years of BA top 100 prospects and do the top 10 hitters and top 10 pitchers from every draft and see what I can come up with.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I'm curious, what is the failure rate of top offensive prospects (who have actually accomplished something in the minors -- not just pure hype monsters) relative to top pitching prospects. It seems like there just aren't that many great offensive guys who fall flat, particularly ones ahead of the curve.

Here is the lists

2005 
Hitters           Pitchers 
Joe Mauer         1 Felix Hernandez 
Delmon Young      2 Scott Kazmir 
Ian Stewart       3 Matt Cain 
Joel Guzman       4 Adam Miller 
Casey Kotchman    5 Chad Billingsley 
Rickie Weeks      6 Jeff Niemann 
Andy Marte        7 Jeff Francis 
Hanley Ramirez    8 Jose Capellan 
Lastings Milledge 9 Mike Hinckley 
Dallas McPherson 10 Edwin Jackson 

2004

Hitters          Pitchers 
Joe Mauer        1 Edwin Jackson 
BJ Upton         2 Greg Miller 
Delmon Young     3 Scott Kazmir 
Rickie Weeks     4 Adam Loewen 
Alexis Rios      5 Zack Greinke 
Kazou Matsui     6 Cole Hamels 
Grady Sizemore   7 Dustin McGowan 
Prince Fielder   8 Gavin Floyd 
Andy Marte       9 Chin-Hui Tsao 
Casey Kotchman   10 Angel Guzman 

2003

Hitters          Pitchers  
Mark Teixeira    1 Jesse Foppert 
Rocco Baldelli   2 Jose Contreras 
Jose Reyes       3 Gavin Floyd 
Joe Mauer        4 Francisco Rodriguez 
Brandon Phillips 5 Scott Kazmir 
Hideki Matsui    6 Adam Waitwrights 
Miguel Cabrera   7 Jeremy Bonderman 
Casey Kotchman   8 John Vanbenschoten 
Justin Morneau   9 Sean Burnett 
Jason Stokes     10 Rafael Soriano 

2002

Hitters         Pitchers 
Hank Blalock    1 Josh Beckett 
Sean Burroughs  2 Mark Prior 
Carlos Pena     3 Juan Cruz 
Joe Mauer       4 Ryan Anderson 
Wilson Betemit  5 Dennis Tankersley 
Drew Henson     6 Nick Neugebauer 
Mark Teixeira   7 Jerome Williams 
Austin Kearns   8 Jon Rauch 
Joe Borchard    9 Carlos Hernandez 
Nick Johnson    10 Ty Howington 

2001

Hitters         Pitchers 
Josh Hamilton   1 Josh Beckett 
Corey Patterson 2 Jon Rauch 
Sean Burroughs  3 Ben Sheets 
Ichiro Suzuki   4 CC Sabathia 
Nick Johnson    5 Ryan Anderson 
Carlos Pena     6 Roy Oswalt 
Vernon Wells    7 Chin-Hui Tsao 
Drew Henson     8 Juan Cruz 
Antonio Perez   9 Jerome Williams 
Alex Escobar    10 Bobby Bradley 

2000

Hitters         Pitchers
Pat Burrell     1 Rick Ankiel 
Corey Patterson 2 Ryan Anderson 
Vernon Wells    3 John Patterson 
Nick Johnson    4 Mark Mulder 
Ruben Mateo     5 Kip Wells 
Sean Burroughs  6 Matt Riley 
Rafael Furcal   7 Josh Beckett 
Dee Brown       8 AJ Burnett 
Josh Hamilton   9 Brad Penny 
Alfonso Soriano 10 Wilfredo Rodriguez 

1999

Hitters         Pitchers 
JD Drew         1 Rick Ankiel 
Eric Chavez     2 Bruce Chen 
Michael Barrett 3 Brad Penny 
Pablo Ozuna     4 Ryan Anderson 
Ruben Mateo     5 Matt Clement 
Alex Escobar    6 Roy Halladay 
Lance Berkman   7 John Patterson 
Carlos Beltran  8 Matt Riley 
Corey Patterson 9 AJ Burnerr 
Alex Gonzalez   10 Braden Looper 

1998

Hitters         Pitchers
Ben Grieve      1 Kerry Wood 
Paul Konerko    2 Matt White 
Adrian Beltre   3 Kris Benson 
Aramis Ramirez  4 Carl Pavano 
Travis Lee      5 Matt Clement 
Miguel Tejada   6 Rick Ankiel 
Todd Helton     7 Brian Rose 
Mark Kotsay     8 Ryan Anderson 
Chad Hermansen  9 Matt Anderson 
Brad Fulmer     10 Eric Milton 

1997

Hitters           Pitchers
Andruw Jones      1 Kerry Wood 
Vladimir Guerrero 2 Matt White 
Travis Lee        3 Kris Benson 
Migeul Tejada     4 Bartolo Colon 
Todd Walker       5 Carl Pavano 
Ruben Rivera      6 Jaret Wright 
Nomar Garciaparra 7 Roy Halladay 
Paul Konerko      8 Matt Morris 
Jose Cruz Jr      9 Chris Carpenter 
Scott Rolen       10 Braden Looper 

1996

Hitters           Pitchers 
Andruw Jones      1 Paul Wilson 
Ruben Rivera      2 Alan Benes 
Daren Erstad      3 Livan Hernandez 
Derek Jeter       4 Jason Schmidt 
Karim Garcia      5 Matt Drews 
Vladimir Guerrero 6 Billy Wagner 
Ben Davis         7 Bartolo Colon 
Derrick Gibson    8 Kerry Wood 
Rey Ordonez       9 Chan Ho Park 
Richard Hildalgo  10 Rocky Coppinger

There are a lot more pitchers that are in the "never heard of him" or "that guy was a top prospect in baseball?" than there are hitters. Each group has its hits and misses, but the hitters seem a lot more hit than pitchers.

[TeamSelig]

Hmm... the hitters do VERY well... almost all of them are quality MLB players. About half of the pitchers seem to pan out.

Also, I didn't realize Votto was quick (24 steals)... I was thinking he was a big bulky power hitter for some reason.

[Betterread]

This is significant recognition. 3 players out of 14 total, with all three at positions where the Reds could use an upgrade in the next two years. Big improvement from last year.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TeamSelig

Hmm... the hitters do VERY well... almost all of them are quality MLB players. About half of the pitchers seem to pan out.

Also, I didn't realize Votto was quick (24 steals)... I was thinking he was a big bulky power hitter for some reason.

Joey hired aa personal trainer this past offseason to help him get in better shape and to help him run faster. It payed off bigtime for him.

[paulrichjr]

The Reds sure have a lot of players on this list, don't they?

How weird is that direct quote from Baseball America about the Cincinnati Reds? Makes me think 2009 or 2010 could be fun.

[RedsManRick]

My understanding is that what we really lack is depth. Sure, now we've got a few guys at the top, but particularly offensively, it doesn't seem like we have much mid-level talent --- Denorfia types who play pretty well but aren't considered high ceiling guys. I'm thinking of a Nick Punto who will never be an all-star but is better than replacement and keeps you from spending a million bucks on Juan Castro...

[lollipopcurve]

My understanding is that what we really lack is depth. Sure, now we've got a few guys at the top, but particularly offensively, it doesn't seem like we have much mid-level talent --- Denorfia types who play pretty well but aren't considered high ceiling guys. I'm thinking of a Nick Punto who will never be an all-star but is better than replacement and keeps you from spending a million bucks on Juan Castro...

I don't buy it. When it comes to finding players like Punto, I think it's really a matter of organizational will -- it takes some guts to go with low-pick guys who have relatively pedestrian minor league numbers (take a look at Punto's sometime if you want to be underwhelmed). Who's to say that guys like Drew Anderson, Brendan Harris, Mike Griffin and Justin Turner (guys like Valaika and Loo come more highly touted) can't turn into useful utility infielders in the Punto mold?

And forget about BA assessments when it comes to "depth" -- after decades of reading that publication, it's my opinion that they trot out an evaluation about depth only to prop up whatever grade they want to assign to an organization (the grade being based primarily on the top prospects plus the chumminess factor -- BA fawns on some orgs as a matter of habit, for whatever reason). Just my opinion...

[Sabo Fan]

Originally Posted by Red Leader

I would think that Bruce would start the year in High A next year and probably be promoted (if continuing to play well) to AA by the end of next year (2007). In 2008, I'd guess that he'd start the year in AA and potentially move up to AAA around mid year (again, if playing well and no injuries). He could be a potential Sept call up in 2008. In 2009, I expect him to be a starting OF on the Reds.

I fully expect Bruce to be fast-tracked, so I'd challenge him and bump him up to AA next year. I don't know that spending part of the year in High-A next year will really do him all that much good. If he struggles at Chattanooga then you send him to High-A and let him get things together for a month or so and then bring him right back. If he continues to develop as he has, I could see a September call-up next year if the Reds aren't in the playoff picture and a full-time job for 2007. It's probably overly optimistic, but I just get the feeling that this organization is planning on Bruce moving up fast now that he's shown he's legit.