13 Pitching Prospects

[mth123]

Not sure if this is bad luck, but I've been studying up on Reds pitching prospects and below are some basic stats for 13 top pitching prospects in the system. (I haven't seen any of these guys pitch and since I don't proclaim to even remotely know how to project talent to the next level, it probably wouldn't matter if I did. Just looking at numbers and a few reports and noting things that pop out to me.) These ages are next season and numbers are combined across all levels. I did this by hand, so if you see an error please point it out and I'll correct. Excuse the crooked table. I need a couple lessons I guess.

Name (Throws)    Age     IP       ERA    WHIP    K/9   HR/9  BB/9 Levels    

H Bailey (R)         21   138.66  2.47    1.07  10.13   .45   3.24  A+/AA   
J Cueto (R)         21   138.00  3.00    1.00    9.33   .72   2.48  A-/A+  
T Wood (L)         20   140.00  3.66    1.17    8.55   .90   3.60  A-        
S Lecure (R)       23   141.66  3.43    1.24    7.31   .76   2.92  A+
D Shafer (R)       25     49.66  2.36    1.07    9.42   .36   2.90  AA
C Fisher (R)        24   150.00  2.76    1.14    7.32   .30   2.28  A-
J Coutlangus (L)  26     65.66  2.74    1.14    7.95   .00   4.52  AA/AAA
C Guevara (R)     25     77.33  3.72    1.31  10.36   .70   3.14  AA
C Medlock (R)     24     63.66  2.97    1.29    9.90   .57   3.96  AA
T. Pelland (L)      23   142.00  3.99    1.64    6.78   .70   5.64  AA
B. Salmon (R)     27      81.00  2.44    1.20  10.67   .33   4.78  AA/AAA
C Vazquez (L)     23   143.66   4.13    1.44   8.46  1.00   3.57  A+/AA
P Dumatrait (L)   26   137.66   4.33    1.46   6.75    .92   3.80  AA/AAA

Some Notes:

1. Seven other prospects of note didn't have enough innings above Rookie ball for stats to be meaningful to me. But keep an eye on Daryl Thompson, Josh Ravin, Sean Watson, Phil Valiquette, Brandon Rice, Rafael Gonzalez and Jordan Smith.

2. Some bullpen options that may be ready at some point in 2007 include Coutlangus, Salmon, Shafer, Medlock, Guevara and Pelland.

3. Coutlangus and Pelland are thought of as LH who could help in 2007, but both seem to walk a lot of guys. In Pelland's case it hurt him bad. Coutlangus made up for it by giving up few hits and no HR. I would love to know Coutlangus BABIP and how many walks may have been intentional but can't find it. If he keeps walking guys like that, his value will drop. It may be time to move him in a deal. FWIW he had 9 Hit Batsmen in AA adding further evidence of control issues.

4. Shafer looks like a guy the Reds could use in 2007 with increasingly high leverage roles. I suspect he could be another late coming Coffey type. Not sure how hard he throws (I've read 90 or so). With no current favorite in the pen, could he wind up in the closer mix eventually?

5. Cueto looks like a stud in the making to me. Not a big guy at 5-11, 175. His walk rate jumped in A+ but not off the charts. It may be key for him.

6. Wood looks like a guy who may have control issues. He had 10 WP to go with his bordeline walk rate. As more advanced hitters lay-off some of his stuff, his walks could rise. He's a little guy.

7. Carlos Fisher is a sleeper IMO. His worst number is his age. He'll need to keep it up and make it to AA by the end of 2007. Big guy at 6-4, 220.

8. Sam Lecure is another guy who may make it IMO. Younger than Fisher at a level higher. Numbers not as dominant but still pretty good. Played NCAA ball at Texas for 2 years. Not sure if that means he should be more advanced and is picking on less experienced competition or if it just adds to his pedigree.

We have a lot of good minor league talent evaluators and stat evaluators on here. I'm not one of them. Please discuss.

[Kc61]

Coutlangus is a converted outfielder and doesn't have the pitching experience that his age would normally indicate. He was very solid in the minor leagues last year. I think he will be with the Reds at some point next year and good lefty relievers are tough to get.

Coutlangus is not some guy who has hung around the Reds' system for years, but is a relative newcomer who had good success last year. I would try to hang on to him, even if his control still needs some work. I just have good vibes about this pitcher based on everything I've read.

[dougdirt]

Carlos Fisher was not a pitcher until his sophomore year in college. He is on a slightly different learning curve in my opinion because of it. He is someone I like to keep up with.

[icehole3]

Ive seen Fisher 3 times and he throws hard and throws strikes. He should be pushed hard thru the organization next year IMO.

[Superdude]

Wood looks like a guy who may have control issues. He had 10 WP to go with his bordeline walk rate. As more advanced hitters lay-off some of his stuff, his walks could rise. He's a little guy.

I wouldn't worry about his command all that much. 3.60BB/9 is pretty decent for a 19 year old in Low A. Like Bailey last season, they were probably telling him to work on his curve a lot. I'm more worried about his ability to keep the ball in park.

Thanks for posting that.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Superdude

I wouldn't worry about his command all that much. 3.60BB/9 is pretty decent for a 19 year old in Low A. Like Bailey last season, they were probably telling him to work on his curve a lot. I'm more worried about his ability to keep the ball in park.

Thanks for posting that.

I like to discuss this stuff and learn a lot from other posters. This is especially true in the case of minor leaguers.

Why is a 3.60BB/9 better in A- than anywhere else? I've always kind of gone by the rule of thumb that below 3 is good above 4 is bad and between is borderline. Plate's the same size everywhere and more guys chase in A- than in higher levels. Seems like it will only get worse unless he changes something.

Your thought on working on pitches would be a good explanation. Is this just a theory or have you seen something in print or a quote? Right now I'm of the mind that Wood may be fools gold. I hope I'm wrong, but control issues coupled with his small stature suggest to me that his value will never be higher.

With all the talk of making moves in the offseason, Wood is a prospect I would not mind if they move (not as a throw-in, but as the central figure in a deal). He'll bring something back.

[Superdude]

Why is a 3.60BB/9 better in A- than anywhere else?

It has nothing to do with the league. I was talking more about his age compared to the league he's in. Like you said, the higher up you go, the more patient the hitters are. If Wood had been in Billings all year, where a lot of guys his age are, his walk rates probably would have been quite a bit lower. The fact that he's still developing as a pitcher means that he will probably bring that down as he progresses. But 3.60 is not as bad as you're making it out to be. I wouldn't call that "pounding the zone", but he's seems to have some idea of where it's gonna end up.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Superdude

It has nothing to do with the league. I was talking more about his age compared to the league he's in. Like you said, the higher up you go, the more patient the hitters are. If Wood had been in Billings all year, where a lot of guys his age are, his walk rates probably would have been quite a bit lower. The fact that he's still developing as a pitcher means that he will probably bring that down as he progresses. But 3.60 is not as bad as you're making it out to be. I wouldn't call that "pounding the zone", but he's seems to have some idea of where it's gonna end up.

I hope you're right, but using your theory that it would be lower if he were still in rookie ball, it would be way over 4 in AA. Its also possible that when he is forced to challenge hitters more to keep from walking the ballpark that he'll get creamed. You're comment about keeping the ball in the park is right on. I'm usually not a guy who is hung up on size, but its another factor working against him. It makes it less likely that he is going to add more "stuff" to compensate for keeping the ball more in the zone. He looks good now but there is a lot of downside that I can see here. I'm not saying dump him for garbage, but if he can be a central figure in a deal for another highly rated, closer to the bigs young player at an area of need (that is possibly less risky) say a SS or a catcher, it wouldn't bother me at all. And, if the Reds were going to make such a deal, I'd rather it be Wood than Cueto who is included. I'm also ok with keeping him and seeing what happens but if he struggles for a year teams will point to his size and say he's not worth much and any trade value will be gone IMO.

Edit: at 6-0, 165 there is a chance that Wood at 19 will fill out a little and make his size less an issue around the market. I'd like to see him add about 15 to 20 lbs. If he does the size factor will be gone. Cueto needs to add a little bulk as well IMO.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by icehole3

Ive seen Fisher 3 times and he throws hard and throws strikes. He should be pushed hard thru the organization next year IMO.

I don't know why exactly, but I suspect that next year at this time Fisher will be at the top of this list. I'm no expert though. Just a hunch.

[texasdave]

There is a lot of good information on www.minorleaguesplits.com.

[Superdude]

I hope you're right, but using your theory that it would be lower if he were still in rookie ball, it would be way over 4 in AA.

Maybe so, but most 19 year olds probably woudln't crack a walk rate under 4 in AA. It all has to do with a prospects age relative to their league. A lot of top high school pitchers go to Low A in their first full season just to get innings in, but it's a pretty tough league for guys coming straight out of high school. Wood definitely held his own last year.

Here's the walk rates for all the high school pitchers taken in the first two rounds of the '05 draft...

Chris Volstad 2.13 5.86K/9
(rk)Mark Pawelek 3.39
Aaron Thompson 2.35 7.65K/9
Chaz Roe 4.25
Ryan Tucker 4.59
Travis Wood 3.60
(rk) Trevor Bell 1.64
Beau Jones 6.75
Sean West 2.99
(rk)Tyler Herron 2.74
Michael Bowden 2.56 9.67K/9
Jared Lansford 3.67
Josh Wall 4.50
Jeff Lyman 4.06

The two guys being propped as "polished" during the draft, Volstad and Thompson, had very good walk rates, but their K rates weren't nearly as good as Wood. When you just look at the pitchers who started at single A, only 6 our of 11 had walk rates below 4.00, so Wood is probably above average as far as command goes. He also had the 3rd highest K rate, which is always a big deal for guys in the lower minors. I think you're badly underrating Wood to be honest. He might have one of the best changeups in the minors, and if adding 15 or so pounds can get his fastball consistently back into the 92-95MPH range, he's got some serious potential.

Off topic a little here, but Bowden's numbers are REALLY impressive. I hadn't even heard of him until I did this. He doesn't look overpowering in his draft video, but he looks like a draft steal so far.

[Will M]

I was under the impression that teams looked at the big guys ( Harang, Clemens,Schilling,etc ) as starters and the littler guys ( Tom Gordon for example ) as relievers. Not in the low minors but as they got closer to the bigs. It is hard for anyone to pitch 220+ innings but the smaller guys tend to wear down. there are exceptions of course ( ie Roy Oswalt ).

another factor ( of course ) in deciding starter vs reliever is how many pitches a guy has { relievers can get by with 2 pitches , starters can't }

- Will