what if we can't make a trade? - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

Will M · 10-22-2006, 05:47 PM

I was thinking about all the trade ideas thrown out by posters and a thought hit me: trades are difficult to make for a GM. You have to trade an excess and fill a need all the while taking the other teams excesses/needs into account. ( not to mention salary needs ). It got me to thinking: what if WK can't pull off a nice trade this off season? what if the Reds basically stand pat?

If we resign our decent free agents ( Aurillia, Weathers, Schowenweis ) and sign one halfway decent free agent 2B or OF ( I am think of cheap but decent guys like Kenny Lofton or Jose Valentin ) we would have:

SP Arroyo Harang Lohse Milton EZ ( Bailey starts 2007 in AAA )
RP Weathers Schowenweis Coffey Cormier Bray Majik Belisle
C Ross/Valentin & LaRue
1B Hatteberg/Aurillia ( Votto starts 2007 in AAA )
2B Freel or free agent
SS Phillips
3B EE
LF Dunn
CF Deno/Freel or Deno/free agent
RF Griffey

This team has 2 good starters, a decent but unspectacular pen, a decent but unspectacular offense, and a decent defense.

I really can't see this team being more than average.
Arroyo & Harang had very good years and this years team went 80-82.
2/5 of the SP being solid and 3/5 being suspect is not a good recipe for a playoff team.

This team would really need Bailey to arrive early in 2007 and make an impact right away and it would also help if Votto's bat arrived early { pushing Hatteberg to the bench }

- Will ( looking forward to 2008 )

TeamBoone · 10-22-2006, 07:04 PM

I don't think we have to worry about not making a trade.

I just have this horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach that WK is going to trade AD.... I don't think there's but a handful of people who think the Reds should keep him (I'm one of that handful), not the fans, not the media, and probably not WK.

That will be one sad day for me (and, I think, the team too, in more ways than one).

Falls City Beer · 10-22-2006, 07:09 PM

If Wayne can't pull off a big trade this offseason, then he has no business being a GM.

terminator · 10-22-2006, 09:59 PM

You're right, if we stand pat we aren't going to get magically better. If we come back with those players we'll be .500 or worse.

Our hopes are: 1) Wayne makes some magical trades and pickups, or 2) Wayne builds with drafts and prospect trades. Option #2 is a long term solution and IMHO the more realistic path to success. Given our lack of depth at any spot other than catcher, we really don't have a surplus that we can trade to solve our problem areas in the short term.

mth123 · 10-22-2006, 11:06 PM

I wouldn't make a huge deal. I would try to add pieces where I can and maybe sign a #3 type pitcher. Trade the catchers, Hat, Freel, Lohse, Majewski and Cormier. Maybe some mid level minor leaguers like Pelland, Dumatrait or Moran. Trade the others only if its an overwhelming offer.

With Dunn, EdE, Votto and Bruce that is the makings of a good middle of the order. With Phillips at 2B and some combo of Deno, Strait, Dickerson or Stubbs in CF the team on the field is promising. Need to get a SS and a catcher.

Harang, Arroyo, Bailey and a signing make a solid rotation with Lizard, Claussen, Cueto and/or Wood rounding things out. Lots of relief candidates if Coffey or Bray could eventually close.

They probably will be middle of the pack at best in 2007 because we'll be using stopgaps while these pieces get ready, but I think they can rise in 2008 or 2009 when some of the bad contracts go off the books and money is spent in strategic areas. I wouldn't rock the foundation now and delay the improvement. Not enough ready talent on hand to be trading a lot of it away unless it is a clear win in talent coming back. We have already seen what trading foundation pieces to fill holes gets you. The projected middle of the order and projected rotation look solid and those are the hardest pieces to get.

dunner13 · 10-22-2006, 11:33 PM

I think wayne is going to make some major moves this offseason. He already made alot of moves during the season, no reason to think that wont continue. I think he will see what he can get for dunn and if someone makes a good deal that he will take it. Pitching and Defense is the new direction of the reds.

jnwohio · 10-22-2006, 11:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mth123

I wouldn't make a huge deal. I would try to add pieces where I can and maybe sign a #3 type pitcher. Trade the catchers, Hat, Freel, Lohse, Majewski and Cormier. Maybe some mid level minor leaguers like Pelland, Dumatrait or Moran. Trade the others only if its an overwhelming offer.

With Dunn, EdE, Votto and Bruce that is the makings of a good middle of the order. With Phillips at 2B and some combo of Deno, Strait, Dickerson or Stubbs in CF the team on the field is promising. Need to get a SS and a catcher.

Harang, Arroyo, Bailey and a signing make a solid rotation with Lizard, Claussen, Cueto and/or Wood rounding things out. Lots of relief candidates if Coffey or Bray could eventually close.

They probably will be middle of the pack at best in 2007 because we'll be using stopgaps while these pieces get ready, but I think they can rise in 2008 or 2009 when some of the bad contracts go off the books and money is spent in strategic areas. I wouldn't rock the foundation now and delay the improvement. Not enough ready talent on hand to be trading a lot of it away unless it is a clear win in talent coming back. We have already seen what trading foundation pieces to fill holes gets you. The projected middle of the order and projected rotation look solid and those are the hardest pieces to get.

Why do so many folks seem to think that the rest of the division and league can rebuild on the fly so much faster than the Reds? Is it that a side efect of parity is often the mediocrity we also saw all around this season? BUt iof everybody is mediocre, in terms of getting to the post season does that really matter?

Within their division the Reds had clearly winning records against both the teams that finished above them. Both of those teams also have major issues looking to next year; and ironically the Cards may actually have more trouble cutting the cord and moving forward because of the success they have experienced in the post season.

redsmetz · 10-23-2006, 08:26 AM

At the very least, one of the catchers will go. We will have some free agent signing or another and I think the rotation will be addressed as well. Keep in mind too that both the pitching and batting coach positions need to be filled and that could (not the word "could") help in two areas that struggled during the season. But I think the "least" isn't all that is going to happen. If we could get this darn World Series over with and get to letting teams make their moves, we could hurry up and get to next season!

dougdirt · 10-23-2006, 08:49 AM

If we cant make a trade to bring some talent in here, we better pray that we can bring in some talent via FA, or we are going to be a bad team again.

Krusty · 10-23-2006, 08:54 AM

Wayne K. already made a minor league deal for the infielder Gil to kick off the offseason. We aren't talking about Dan O'Brien here.

I said before I think Dunn will be on this team come 2007. Most teams will go through free agency first to sign the hitters they need before making a deal for Dunn.

With that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Reds sign a free agent starter (Jason Schimdt?), closer (Eric Gagne?) and sign either Alex Gonzalez or Adam Kennedy to fill either the second base or shortstop spot.

cincy09 · 10-23-2006, 10:13 AM

to answer the question: What if we can't make a trade?
I guess that would mean status quo. we all know how that worked out!

dougdirt · 10-23-2006, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cincy09

I guess that would mean status quo. we all know how that worked out!

Dano had his plan in place and it seemed tobe going in the right direction. He just didnt have the time to finish it up.

Redsland · 10-23-2006, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Dano had his plan in place and it seemed tobe going in the right direction. He just didnt have the time to finish it up.

True, but in fairness to Castellini, a thousand years is a long time to wait.

Will M · 10-23-2006, 04:18 PM

1. I generally agree with your assessment. I think the future looks brighter than the past but it will be 2008/2009 not 2007.

2. " I would try to add pieces where I can and maybe sign a #3 type pitcher. "

What I don't want WK to do is sign some pitcher to a long bad contract ( Milton? Chan Ho Park? Jared Wright? Pavano? etc etc ) . I am not sure we can sign a #3 SP when so many other richer teams need pitching.

3. " Trade the catchers, Hat, Freel, Lohse, Majewski and Cormier. "

IMO:
Trade LaRue.
Hatteberg plays 1B ( or platoons at 1B ) until Votto is ready.
Freel could be traded since he could wear out quick and might not be a good player come say 2009.
Don't trade Majik now & lets see what he can do if healthy.
Cormier is tradable especially if we resign Schowenweis.

" Maybe some mid level minor leaguers like Pelland, Dumatrait or Moran. "
ok

" Trade the others only if its an overwhelming offer. "
Agree.

4. "With Dunn, EdE, Votto and Bruce that is the makings of a good middle of the order. With Phillips at 2B and some combo of Deno, Strait, Dickerson or Stubbs in CF the team on the field is promising. Need to get a SS and a catcher.

Harang, Arroyo, Bailey and a signing make a solid rotation with Lizard, Claussen, Cueto and/or Wood rounding things out. Lots of relief candidates if Coffey or Bray could eventually close."

Sounds like a nice team circa 2009. sigh

5. They probably will be middle of the pack at best in 2007 because we'll be using stopgaps while these pieces get ready, but I think they can rise in 2008or 2009 when some of the bad contracts go off the books and money is spent in strategic areas. I wouldn't rock the foundation now and delay the improvement. Not enough ready talent on hand to be trading a lot of it away unless it is a clear win in talent coming back. We have already seen what trading foundation pieces to fill holes gets you. The projected middle of the order and projected rotation look solid and those are the hardest pieces to get. "

agree.

Tom Servo · 10-23-2006, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Dano had his plan in place and it seemed tobe going in the right direction. He just didnt have the time to finish it up.

I'm in almost inclined to agree but then I remember that the few trades DanO made were for Jung Bong, Tony Womack, and Dave Williams and suddenly that sentiment evaporates.

10-22-2006, 05:47 PM	#1
Will M Brett William Moore Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Crescent Springs KY Posts: 3,511	what if we can't make a trade? I was thinking about all the trade ideas thrown out by posters and a thought hit me: trades are difficult to make for a GM. You have to trade an excess and fill a need all the while taking the other teams excesses/needs into account. ( not to mention salary needs ). It got me to thinking: what if WK can't pull off a nice trade this off season? what if the Reds basically stand pat? If we resign our decent free agents ( Aurillia, Weathers, Schowenweis ) and sign one halfway decent free agent 2B or OF ( I am think of cheap but decent guys like Kenny Lofton or Jose Valentin ) we would have: SP Arroyo Harang Lohse Milton EZ ( Bailey starts 2007 in AAA ) RP Weathers Schowenweis Coffey Cormier Bray Majik Belisle C Ross/Valentin & LaRue 1B Hatteberg/Aurillia ( Votto starts 2007 in AAA ) 2B Freel or free agent SS Phillips 3B EE LF Dunn CF Deno/Freel or Deno/free agent RF Griffey This team has 2 good starters, a decent but unspectacular pen, a decent but unspectacular offense, and a decent defense. I really can't see this team being more than average. Arroyo & Harang had very good years and this years team went 80-82. 2/5 of the SP being solid and 3/5 being suspect is not a good recipe for a playoff team. This team would really need Bailey to arrive early in 2007 and make an impact right away and it would also help if Votto's bat arrived early { pushing Hatteberg to the bench } - Will ( looking forward to 2008 )

10-22-2006, 09:59 PM	#4
terminator Member Join Date: May 2006 Location: Cincinnati Posts: 308	Re: what if we can't make a trade? You're right, if we stand pat we aren't going to get magically better. If we come back with those players we'll be .500 or worse. Our hopes are: 1) Wayne makes some magical trades and pickups, or 2) Wayne builds with drafts and prospect trades. Option #2 is a long term solution and IMHO the more realistic path to success. Given our lack of depth at any spot other than catcher, we really don't have a surplus that we can trade to solve our problem areas in the short term.

10-22-2006, 11:06 PM	#5
mth123 The Big Dog Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 12,690	Re: what if we can't make a trade? I wouldn't make a huge deal. I would try to add pieces where I can and maybe sign a #3 type pitcher. Trade the catchers, Hat, Freel, Lohse, Majewski and Cormier. Maybe some mid level minor leaguers like Pelland, Dumatrait or Moran. Trade the others only if its an overwhelming offer. With Dunn, EdE, Votto and Bruce that is the makings of a good middle of the order. With Phillips at 2B and some combo of Deno, Strait, Dickerson or Stubbs in CF the team on the field is promising. Need to get a SS and a catcher. Harang, Arroyo, Bailey and a signing make a solid rotation with Lizard, Claussen, Cueto and/or Wood rounding things out. Lots of relief candidates if Coffey or Bray could eventually close. They probably will be middle of the pack at best in 2007 because we'll be using stopgaps while these pieces get ready, but I think they can rise in 2008 or 2009 when some of the bad contracts go off the books and money is spent in strategic areas. I wouldn't rock the foundation now and delay the improvement. Not enough ready talent on hand to be trading a lot of it away unless it is a clear win in talent coming back. We have already seen what trading foundation pieces to fill holes gets you. The projected middle of the order and projected rotation look solid and those are the hardest pieces to get. Last edited by mth123; 10-22-2006 at 11:09 PM.

10-22-2006, 11:33 PM	#6
dunner13 Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 589	Re: what if we can't make a trade? I think wayne is going to make some major moves this offseason. He already made alot of moves during the season, no reason to think that wont continue. I think he will see what he can get for dunn and if someone makes a good deal that he will take it. Pitching and Defense is the new direction of the reds.

10-23-2006, 08:26 AM	#8
redsmetz Redsmetz Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Winton Place Posts: 10,455	Re: what if we can't make a trade? At the very least, one of the catchers will go. We will have some free agent signing or another and I think the rotation will be addressed as well. Keep in mind too that both the pitching and batting coach positions need to be filled and that could (not the word "could") help in two areas that struggled during the season. But I think the "least" isn't all that is going to happen. If we could get this darn World Series over with and get to letting teams make their moves, we could hurry up and get to next season!

10-22-2006, 07:04 PM	#2
TeamBoone "Let's Roll" Join Date: Jun 2000 Location: Cincinnati Posts: 12,821	Re: what if we can't make a trade? I don't think we have to worry about not making a trade. I just have this horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach that WK is going to trade AD.... I don't think there's but a handful of people who think the Reds should keep him (I'm one of that handful), not the fans, not the media, and probably not WK. That will be one sad day for me (and, I think, the team too, in more ways than one). __________________ "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

10-22-2006, 07:09 PM	#3
Falls City Beer Member Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 24,098	Re: what if we can't make a trade? If Wayne can't pull off a big trade this offseason, then he has no business being a GM.

10-23-2006, 08:49 AM	#9
dougdirt The Boss Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 30,745	Re: what if we can't make a trade? If we cant make a trade to bring some talent in here, we better pray that we can bring in some talent via FA, or we are going to be a bad team again. __________________ www.redsminorleagues.com

10-23-2006, 08:54 AM	#10
Krusty Member Join Date: May 2000 Location: Williamsport, PA Posts: 12,311	Re: what if we can't make a trade? Wayne K. already made a minor league deal for the infielder Gil to kick off the offseason. We aren't talking about Dan O'Brien here. I said before I think Dunn will be on this team come 2007. Most teams will go through free agency first to sign the hitters they need before making a deal for Dunn. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Reds sign a free agent starter (Jason Schimdt?), closer (Eric Gagne?) and sign either Alex Gonzalez or Adam Kennedy to fill either the second base or shortstop spot. __________________ If you think small, you'll go nowhere in life.

10-23-2006, 10:13 AM	#11
cincy09 Bada Bing Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Zanesvegas, OH Posts: 1,484	Re: what if we can't make a trade? to answer the question: What if we can't make a trade? I guess that would mean status quo. we all know how that worked out! __________________ 2006 Redszone Prospect Draft - Johnny Cueto 2007 Redszone Prospect Draft - Pedro Viola, Alexis Oliveras 2007 Redszone Mock Draft - 1st (27) Michael Burgess, Supp. (60) Wes Roemer, 2nd (92) Barry Enright, 3rd (122) Jonathan Bachanov 2009 Redszone Mock Draft - 1st (9) Shelby Miller, 2nd (58) Marc Krauss, 3rd (89) Daniel Fields

10-23-2006, 04:18 PM	#14
Will M Brett William Moore Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Crescent Springs KY Posts: 3,511	reply to mth123 1. I generally agree with your assessment. I think the future looks brighter than the past but it will be 2008/2009 not 2007. 2. " I would try to add pieces where I can and maybe sign a #3 type pitcher. " What I don't want WK to do is sign some pitcher to a long bad contract ( Milton? Chan Ho Park? Jared Wright? Pavano? etc etc ) . I am not sure we can sign a #3 SP when so many other richer teams need pitching. 3. " Trade the catchers, Hat, Freel, Lohse, Majewski and Cormier. " IMO: Trade LaRue. Hatteberg plays 1B ( or platoons at 1B ) until Votto is ready. Freel could be traded since he could wear out quick and might not be a good player come say 2009. Don't trade Majik now & lets see what he can do if healthy. Cormier is tradable especially if we resign Schowenweis. " Maybe some mid level minor leaguers like Pelland, Dumatrait or Moran. " ok " Trade the others only if its an overwhelming offer. " Agree. 4. "With Dunn, EdE, Votto and Bruce that is the makings of a good middle of the order. With Phillips at 2B and some combo of Deno, Strait, Dickerson or Stubbs in CF the team on the field is promising. Need to get a SS and a catcher. Harang, Arroyo, Bailey and a signing make a solid rotation with Lizard, Claussen, Cueto and/or Wood rounding things out. Lots of relief candidates if Coffey or Bray could eventually close." Sounds like a nice team circa 2009. sigh 5. They probably will be middle of the pack at best in 2007 because we'll be using stopgaps while these pieces get ready, but I think they can rise in 2008or 2009 when some of the bad contracts go off the books and money is spent in strategic areas. I wouldn't rock the foundation now and delay the improvement. Not enough ready talent on hand to be trading a lot of it away unless it is a clear win in talent coming back. We have already seen what trading foundation pieces to fill holes gets you. The projected middle of the order and projected rotation look solid and those are the hardest pieces to get. " agree.

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