Tidbit from BA's Twins prospect chat

[camisadelgolf]

Personally, I'm more angry about the Juan Castro trade (and I love Juan Castro, unlike the rest of Redszone). To get him, the Reds traded Brandon Roberts, who turned 22 just last month. In two minor league seasons, he has hit .301 with an OBP of .362 over 806 at-bats. On top of that, he's stolen 82 bases.

[Doc. Scott]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Personally, I'm more angry about the Juan Castro trade (and I love Juan Castro, unlike the rest of Redszone). To get him, the Reds traded Brandon Roberts, who turned 22 just last month. In two minor league seasons, he has hit .301 with an OBP of .362 over 806 at-bats. On top of that, he's stolen 82 bases.

Roberts is sort of the position-player version of Ward. A couple of strong aspects, but probably ultimately of limited upside- maybe Orlando Palmiero or something. Unless he develops some power (unlikely but possible), in which case one might want to watch out.

Of course, Castro has upside like a straight horizontal line, which is what makes this trade slightly more possibly ugly three or five years from now.

Just my opinion. Not authoritative, despite the tone.

[camisadelgolf]

I agree, but I also think he could potentially be a Brady Clark with better speed or Scott Podsednik with better contact (okay, that's possibly a big stretch), and I just felt that the Reds could've had Castro for less.

[Doc. Scott]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I agree, but I also think he could potentially be a Brady Clark with better speed or Scott Podsednik with better contact (okay, that's possibly a big stretch), and I just felt that the Reds could've had Castro for less.

Podsednik is a decent comp. Willy Taveras is another. Of course, Roberts could take the big step towards adding walks and homers to his game. But the chances are less because you're talking about a college player who's already 23, not a high school player who isn't done growing.

[camisadelgolf]

Once again, I agree. And FWIW, he was 22 in high A-ball, and my guess is that he'll be in AA-ball at age 23, which isn't too bad. FWIW, Podsednik (who came out of high school) didn't advance beyond AA-ball until age 25. Based on only numbers, Roberts looks to be far ahead of Podsednik.

[TOBTTReds]

I'd be willing to say Ward never makes an impact in Major League Baseball.

[Doc. Scott]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Once again, I agree. And FWIW, he was 22 in high A-ball, and my guess is that he'll be in AA-ball at age 23, which isn't too bad. FWIW, Podsednik (who came out of high school) didn't advance beyond AA-ball until age 25. Based on only numbers, Roberts looks to be far ahead of Podsednik.

Fair, but do you know how many Podsednalikes don't become Scott Podsednik or don't get the chance to? Zillions. For the record (you probably know this already), Podsednik was plucked off waivers in October 2002 for nothing and dropped into a Milwaukee outfield that had very little talent at the time. Before that Podsednik was so highly valued that Texas let him leave as a six-year free agent after the 2000 season.

As a side note, it still amazes me that the Brewers were then able to benefit from a similar stroke of astuteness/luck with Brady Clark the same year (2003).

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Roberts and Javon Moran are pretty close to the same player. Moran has consistently hit for higher averages and was a level ahead (but was also a year older).

I'll be interested to see how Brandon handles AA and Javon AAA in this coming season. For both players, 2007 will be a good indicator of each's major-league prospects.

Just trying to put it all in perspective as we try to keep track of all the talent entering and exiting the organization.

[Doc. Scott]

Originally Posted by AvesIce51

I'd be willing to say Ward never makes an impact in Major League Baseball.

Not trying to give you (or Zach Ward, who has chances no worse than that of thousands of other pro ballplayers) crap specifically, but this is a gimme bet of the sort that anyone would spring for given percentage odds.

Speaking for myself, what's more interesting is trying to figure out who does make it- as well as when, where, how, and why.