Dave Concepcion VS. Ozzie Smith

[Reds Nd2]

Anyone who has access to the premium content at Baseball Prospectus might be interested in this article. Joe Sheehan gives his reasons why he wouldn't vote for Concepcion, among others, on the HoF ballot.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Reds Nd2

Anyone who has access to the premium content at Baseball Prospectus might be interested in this article. Joe Sheehan gives his reasons why he wouldn't vote for Concepcion, among others, on the HoF ballot.

Where does he rank failure to play in New York?

[Reds Nd2]

Originally Posted by M2

Where does he rank failure to play in New York?

Don Mattingly is not a Hall of Famer.

A great player for four years, and a good one for four others, Mattingly’s career falls short of the established standards for Hall of Fame first basemen.

[Yachtzee]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Neyer has his own weakness, he grew up an AL fan and is AL myopic, he admits that he knows less about the game prior to Ruth then he should and IMO he leans a bit heavy on the super teams for content.

But I miss reading him for free.

I haven't read his articles since he went premium.

It's probably based off of Concepcion's rankings in Bill James Historical Abstract, but then I really didn't understand Concepcion's ranking in that book anyway. If it's based off of Win Shares, then Luis Aparicio has no business hanging out at #13 all-time. Was Jim Fregosi that great to rank #15? I've always heard about him more as a manager than a shortstop. They don't really say anything about Davey about his ranking or play, other than he was so tall and skinny that Pete Rose said he could have pulled a bone, but didn't have enough muscle to pull.

[M2]

It should be noted that James also named Concepcion the top SS of the 1970s.

James weighted peak heavily which cost Concepcion a bit and aided Rizzuto.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by Yachtzee

I haven't read his articles since he went premium.

It's probably based off of Concepcion's rankings in Bill James Historical Abstract, but then I really didn't understand Concepcion's ranking in that book anyway. If it's based off of Win Shares, then Luis Aparicio has no business hanging out at #13 all-time. Was Jim Fregosi that great to rank #15? I've always heard about him more as a manager than a shortstop. They don't really say anything about Davey about his ranking or play, other than he was so tall and skinny that Pete Rose said he could have pulled a bone, but didn't have enough muscle to pull.

I don't understand James' ranking of any player in the Ozzie, Davey, Aparicio, Rizzuto, and Rabbit Maranville group. All were moderate hitting shortstops who excelled to a new level defensively, and all their careers are rather similar in that mold. He has Ozzie #7, Aparicio #13, Rizzuto #16, Davey #26, and Maranville #38.

Ozzie is the greatest defensive shortstop ever, which means he was just a little bit better than the rest of those guys in that group, and he's probably slightly greater overall than everyone else in that group, but the differences between him and the others can't be that huge.

[Cyclone792]

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008...bargain-books/

Quick word about Concepcion: I’ve received several emails lately asking about Omar Vizquel and if I think he is a Hall of Famer. It’s a touchy subject for me because I’m a big Vizquel fan for all the obvious Cleveland reasons, and I think he certainly has a compelling enough case with the 11 gold gloves and 2,600-plus hits and 1,350 runs scored and so on. He has quite a few big name Hall of Fame supporters right now — Peter Gammons is a big fan, Tracy Ringolsby too — and I suspect there will be a pretty overpowering campaign for him when he’s Hall eligible.

And it makes me a little sad that Dave Concepcion never had that campaign. I firmly believe Davey was a better player than Vizquel. It makes me a little sad because I have never voted for Concepcion, not even this past year which I believe was his last year of eligibility. I’ve thought about him hard, respected the career a lot, but being brutally honest I always thought he fell just a touch short, and anyway I’ve been much more interested in another shortstop, Alan Trammell, who I think was a better player than either of those guys.

But the interest in Vizquel (along with my vivid Reds dreams) has made me go back and realize that Concepcion really was a unique player in his time. First off, he was a brilliant defensive shortstop — his fielding numbers are off the charts. Bill James rated him an A+ defender in his Win Shares book (Vizquel, controversially, was rated a B-). And while Range Factor obviously has its quirks and flaws, it’s worth noting that five times in Concepcion’s career he had a 5.00 range factor or higher (Vizquel, and I couldn’t quite believe this, NEVER had a 5.00 range factor).

People will point out that Concepcion won five Gold Gloves to Vizquel’s 11, but this is purely the Ozzie factor … Vizquel won five gold gloves after he turned 32. Concepcion won none because Ozzie Smith had arrived … Vizquel doesn’t win any of those against Ozzie either.

But it’s offense where I think Concepcion has a big, big advantage over Vizquel. Their core numbers will not show this:

Concepcion: .267/.322/.357, 389 doubles, 48 triples, 101 homers, 993 runs, 950 RBIs, 321 stolen bases, 88 OPS+.

Vizquel: .272/.338/.355, 419 doubles, 71 triples, 77 homers, 1,350 runs, 878 RBIs, 383 stolen bases, 83 OPS+.

Looking at those numbers in context, it looks like a wash or an edge to Vizquel — he played longer and his OPS+ is lower, but he did score 350 more runs, and he has 300 or so more hits and he stole 62 more bases.

But here’s the thing: Concepcion in addition to his defensive prowess was very much an offensive shortstop in his time, and Vizquel absolutely was not. Runs created shows this best:

Vizquel is -197 runs created above average which obviously is not good.
Concepcion is -165 runs creative above average, which ain’t much better.

BUT …

Vizquel is -15 runs created above POSITION. That is, even when you compare him only to shortstops, he was slightly below average as a hitter. Sure, he played in the time of A-Rod, Jeter, Nomah, Larkin and the rest, but that’s the point. The game changed, and shortstops were expected to hit, and Omar was a slight offensive liability for much of his career. Vizquel had only one year where his RCAP was +20 or better — that was his outstanding 1999 season when he was +31.

Concepcion? He’s +126 runs created above position. He had SIX seasons where his RCAP was +20 or better. That means that for his time he was not only a good hitting shortstop, he was really an EXCELLENT hitting shortstop. Going back to 1920, Concepcion ranks 15th all-time in RCAP among shortstops who played 1,500 or more games … he’s well behind the greatest hitting shortstops like Larkin, Jeter, Trammell, Yount and he’s also behind Ozzie. But he’s much better than some of the other great defensive shortstops like Aparicio, Marion, Rizzuto and, of course, Omar.

This is not to say that Concepcion is a Hall of Famer … as I already mentioned I think he probably falls just short. I think Trammell has a more compelling case, and I think Larkin who will be eligible soon has a much more compelling case (I think Barry Larkin should be a slam dunk, first ballot guy … we’ll get to that at the appropriate time). But I think Concepcion was a great player, and he’s a significantly better Hall candidate than Omar, and I am already pre-raging for the Omar hype that seems inevitable in five years.

**Quick word about Cesar Geronimo … I will be in Cincinnati in about 10 days for his induction into the Reds Hall of Fame. He’s going in to the Hall with Cincinnati native Barry Larkin, which is fitting … Geronimo never did headline anything his whole life. But Chief, as they called him, was an amazing defensive centerfielder, he did have a really nice year in ‘76, and he also completes the circle — every member of the Great Eight will now be in the Reds Hall.

[princeton]

it took a great player to make a great team greater. a simple All-Star player wouldn't have been enough.

Concepcion should have been in the HoF a long time ago.

Smith was better, though.

[durl]

Smith will always have an "aura" about him because of his backflips and his annual All-Star appearances. The problem is that backflips aren't a productive part of the game and Ozzie made the All-Star team when he was batting below .200. I wonder if the Ozzie mystique carries more weight than his actual performance on the field.

Don't get me wrong, Ozzie was an amazing fielder and deserves the Hall. Davey was also an amazing fielder and should be in the Hall as well. Forced to choose, I might go with Ozzie but it wouldn't be an easy choice.

I believe what keeps Davey from standing out (as others have pointed out) is that Davey played with Rose, Bench, Foster, Morgan, and Perez while Ozzie played with...Willie McGee? Davey was a great player on a great team. Ozzie was a great shortstop that did backflips.

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by durl

Smith will always have an "aura" about him because of his backflips and his annual All-Star appearances. The problem is that backflips aren't a productive part of the game and Ozzie made the All-Star team when he was batting below .200. I wonder if the Ozzie mystique carries more weight than his actual performance on the field.

Don't get me wrong, Ozzie was an amazing fielder and deserves the Hall. Davey was also an amazing fielder and should be in the Hall as well. Forced to choose, I might go with Ozzie but it wouldn't be an easy choice.

I believe what keeps Davey from standing out (as others have pointed out) is that Davey played with Rose, Bench, Foster, Morgan, and Perez while Ozzie played with...Willie McGee? Davey was a great player on a great team. Ozzie was a great shortstop that did backflips.

Ozzie played in an era where he was showcased like none before. When Ozzie played the midwest was king in baseball. NY and Boston were afterthoughts. Big market baseball had yet to go mainstream. Sportscenter was new and was more geared to showing the best teams and the best highlights rather than pimping/creating the biggest stories in the biggest markets. Ozzie was a highlight real in the same way Jim Edmonds was. He would make that spectacular play that would get played all over the place. But IMO his substance pales in comparison to Davey, Trammel, or even Visquel.

[Always Red]

I've said it before, and I'll say it until I can speak no longer: If Phil Rizzuto, Pee Wee Reese and Ozzie Smith belong in the HoF, then so does David Concepcion. And so does Alan Trammell, IMO.

None of these guys were the type of player who could carry a team all year long; they all had faults as players (for instance, Dave Concepcion put together one of the all time worst seasons in baseball history as a #3 hitter in the order- not Davey's fault, as he should have been hitting 6th or so, but that's what happens when you are on a really bad team). Some of the modern day SS's can and have carried their teams all year. The game changed so quickly, that guys like Concepcion and Trammell are going to be left out.

[Johnny Footstool]

There's a bit of backlash now against Ozzie. It's the kind of thing that happens after years of hearing how great a guy was. People begin to think, "Aw, he wasn't *that* great."

Ozzie was, though.

The Posnaski article lauds Concepcion for having a range factor over 5.00 five times in his career. Ozzie did that 10 times.

[Reds1]

Ask a bunch of cardinal fans! You'll get a different poll. LOL

[KronoRed]

Originally Posted by Reds1

Ask a bunch of cardinal fans! You'll get a different poll. LOL

I doubt Cardinal fans even know who Concepcion is

[_Sir_Charles_]

I quickly picked Davey...simply because he's one of my all-time favorites and because I simply hate Smith. However, looking at it logically...you'd have to say Smith. Defensively, it's a wash. I think Davey was a bit better, but its certainly close enough to be a wash. That leaves the bat and the bases. Well, Smith was a much better baserunner (and stealer). Edge Smith...by far. Hitting-wise, they were somewhat similar. Very little power, mediocre average hitter. The difference is in these stats:

Walk/strikeout ratios ( 1186 k's & 736 bb for Davey / 589 k's # 1072 bb for Ozzie )
Sacrifice hits ( 74 for Davey / 214 for Ozzie )
Hit into double plays ( 266 for Davey / 167 for Ozzie ).

All three catagories, Smith takes in a landslide. Ozzie...and it's not even close. Sorry Davey. We still love you. :O)