Projecting the Reds 2007 Record/ZiPS

[tomd63]

As we sit and wait, not so patiently, for the Reds to make roster improvements for the upcoming season. I thought I'd take a look at what kind of record we might expect from the Reds for this upcoming season with their current roster. I used Dan Szymborski's ZIPS projections from the Baseball Think Factory site, http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/ , for the projection. The following are the results.

Pyth. WP W L
.475 77 85

Name                BA  OBP  SLG   AB  RC
Dunn,Adam         .259 .382 .536  556 114
Phillips,Brandon  .266 .320 .405  511  66
Hatteberg,Scott   .270 .360 .398  460  66
Encarnacion,Edwin .275 .351 .489  454  78
Gonzalez,Alex     .245 .293 .390  449  51
Freel,Ryan        .265 .361 .376  441  60
Griffey Jr. ,Ken  .270 .342 .506  423  73
Denorfia,Chris    .287 .353 .440  418  65
Conine,Jeff       .266 .333 .394  406  53
Castro,Juan       .240 .277 .351  262  25
Moeller,Chad      .206 .266 .314  223  19
Ross,Dave         .234 .326 .482  197  31
Valentin,Javier   .256 .326 .446  195  28
Hamilton,Josh     .261 .305 .412  165  21
Keppinger,Jeff    .286 .338 .360   50   6
Pitchers          .142 .164 .204  309  10
Totals            .254 .330 .417 5519 759
					
					
Name               ERA   G  GS  INN   R
Arroyo,Bronson    3.86  34  32  212 100
Harang,Aaron      4.03  33  33  210 103
Milton,Eric       4.96  31  31  178 107
Lohse,Kyle        4.96  35  27  167 101
Santos,Victor     5.08  26  20  124  77
Belisle,Matt      4.95  42  13  109  66
Majewski,Gary     4.21  69   1   77  39
Coffey,Todd       4.04  70   0   69  34
Weathers,David    5.35  66   0   69  45
Stanton,Mike      3.71  68   0   68  30
Shackelford,Brian 4.81  62   0   58  34
Cormier,Rheal     4.89  68   0   57  34
Bray,Bill         4.79  42   0   47  27
Totals            4.53 646 157 1445 797

The current Reds roster projects to about a 77-85 season. That's actually better than I was expecting. A similar projection before last season produced about a 84-78 record. It'll be interesting to see how any upcoming moves affect the projection. Here's hoping we see some positive moves made before the season starts, or I fear it's going to be a long disappointing season for us Reds fans.

[fewfirstchoice]

90-72 great season with the playoffs in the air.
Harang-18-9 3.27 era
Arroyo- 16-13 3.89 eradicates
Milton-14-12 4.79 era
Lohse-12-12 4.24 era
pitcher to be acquired(im thinking Lieber,because cincy and the phils to trade alot.the reds do have extra BP arms)
12-10 4.89 era
Dunn 270 48 115
Griffey 280 33 103
EE 310 28 95
BP 290 18 62
A Gonzalez 255 21 75
Hatte 287 13 61
Ross 245 17 55
Add someone else to the OF and were set.
A man can dream cant he,lol.

[REDJAKE]

The really big thing that has to happen if the Reds hope to improve this year is for Harang & Arroyo to repeat there good seasons and that's not a given only the stars have one good year after another and i think Harang is there but if Arroyo slumps then we're in big trouble.If both repeat there good years we still need another starter to step up and win 15 and Conine has to produce like Aurilia did.GO CINCY!!!!

[Superdude]

How much longer do we have Arroyo and Harang locked up? With the market the way it is, projections like this make dealing Arroyo for prospects sound like a nice idea.

[jmac]

Originally Posted by fewfirstchoice

90-72 great season with the playoffs in the air.
Harang-18-9 3.27 era
Arroyo- 16-13 3.89 eradicates
Milton-14-12 4.79 era
Lohse-12-12 4.24 era
pitcher to be acquired(im thinking Lieber,because cincy and the phils to trade alot.the reds do have extra BP arms)
12-10 4.89 era
Dunn 270 48 115
Griffey 280 33 103
EE 310 28 95
BP 290 18 62
A Gonzalez 255 21 75
Hatte 287 13 61
Ross 245 17 55
Add someone else to the OF and were set.
A man can dream cant he,lol.

I can easily see EE doing those #'s and Dunn doing the power aspect.

[Handofdeath]

Originally Posted by fewfirstchoice

90-72 great season with the playoffs in the air.
Harang-18-9 3.27 era
Arroyo- 16-13 3.89 eradicates
Milton-14-12 4.79 era
Lohse-12-12 4.24 era
pitcher to be acquired(im thinking Lieber,because cincy and the phils to trade alot.the reds do have extra BP arms)
12-10 4.89 era
Dunn 270 48 115
Griffey 280 33 103
EE 310 28 95
BP 290 18 62
A Gonzalez 255 21 75
Hatte 287 13 61
Ross 245 17 55
Add someone else to the OF and were set.
A man can dream cant he,lol.

I actually don't think that's too unrealistic. Except for Jr having 103 RBI's. He would have to average 1 RBI for every game played and even in his prime...

[fewfirstchoice]

If JR can stay healthy all season long he still has the talent to be a outstanding BB player.HE has proofed this over the last 2 seasons,he plasy well when healthy.
I also expect EE to put up or close to the #'s I posted.If Dunn has those power #'s his average will also raise around the 270's.But if the rest of the guys put up #'s like I hope the Reds will have a big season in 07.

[dunner13]

I think our record is going to mostly depend on how milton, lohse and bailey do. If milton and lohse can be at least average starters and bailey can have an impact then 85 wins should be within reach. And with the central being so even right now, 85 might get you in.

[Degenerate39]

I don't think you can predict wins. You never know what can happen. Who would have thought that we would have close to a 500 record this year?

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by degenerate10

I don't think you can predict wins. You never know what can happen. Who would have thought that we would have close to a 500 record this year?

Me. (And a bunch of other folks--check the archives).

We Will Win Our Division This Year.we Need To Put Griffey In Right Field And Freel In Center To Cover Alot More Territory.

[Joseph]

What I find interesting looking over these ZiPS is that we do not project to have even ONE league average reliever for 2007. Couple that with only 2 league average or better starters, and it's going to be a loooooooong season.

[Danny Serafini]

Anyone else scared by the fact that it predicted more ABs for Chad Moeller than any other catcher?

[Joseph]

These projections also see Adam Dunn hitting 40 HRs with 98 RBI, for what its worth.

Yes DS, very scared that Moeller has the most ABs.

[durl]

How accurate was ZIPs last year? And what did ZIPS predict for the Reds last year?