Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

[Puffy]

I think Saarloos is going to get lit up like a christmas tree for the Reds. But for 1.2 million I guess its a decent gamble. But trust me, this did nothing to improve the 2007, 2008, 2009 Cincinnati Reds.

[flyer85]

Giving up Shafer doesn't bother but the only thing to like about Saarloos is his extreme GB tendencies. WIth that he still is a bit HR happy. Maybe with that sinker and slurve the transition to the NL will be to his liking. Not a lot of upside but it is a low risk/low value kind of a trade, which is an Ok deal, especially since the Reds have a dearth of starting pitching candidates heading into the season.

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

I liked Shafer, but his continued tenure in Chattanooga in the face of overwhelming bullpen issues at the big league level seems now, in hindsight, like a clear indicator that the Reds wanted to move him.

Same situation as Zach Ward, I imagine -- a player destined as trade bait left to dominate a level in the hopes of improving his value.

Maybe I'm misreading things, though.

Actually, I think you're seeing things quite clearly. Krivsky's scouts didn't like Shafer for some reason, so the team let him dominate at a low level, built his trade value, and then shipped him out.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by Puffy

A soft tosser who gives up a ton of hits and walks almost as many as he K's. Color me very unimpressed.

Don't forget the fact that that 13.7 percent of Saarloos' career fly balls have left the yard. Last season alone that mark was 17.2 percent. That's far worse than any season Milton's pitched, including 2004 and 2005. Oh, and most of Saarloos' home games thus far have been in Oakland with a HR index of 0.95, and we know how GABP is on the long ball. He does keep the ball out of the air at a nice rate, but the balls that do go in the air tend to go a long way. That's not uncommon for a pitcher who doesn't miss bats, and Saarloos definitely can't miss many bats.

If Saarloos can be as effective in 2007 as he was in 2005 - the only season he posted a sub 10 percent HR/FB% at 8.6 percent - he can help out a bit. If that doesn't happen, then he's just going to get shelled.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Great trade. Hat's off to Krivsky.

WOW


Great move Wayne, we found the last starter we needed.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by reds44

Great move Wayne, we found the last starter we needed.

I'd say he acquired a probable fifth starter for very little. That still leaves him two starters short unless people are expecting big turnarounds from Milton and Lohse.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

Don't forget the fact that that 13.7 percent of Saarloos' career fly balls have left the yard. Last season alone that mark was 17.2 percent.

which means he was probably a bit unlucky last year with that rate.

[dsmith421]

Originally Posted by reds44

Great move Wayne, we found the last starter we needed.

We now have 2 #2 starters, 2 #5 starters, and a festering pile of suck.

I'm not holding my breath for a world title just yet.

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

Don't forget the fact that that 13.7 percent of Saarloos' career fly balls have left the yard. Last season alone that mark was 17.2 percent. That's far worse than any season Milton's pitched, including 2004 and 2005. Oh, and most of Saarloos' home games thus far have been in Oakland with a HR index of 0.95, and we know how GABP is on the long ball. He does keep the ball out of the air at a nice rate, but the balls that do go in the air tend to go a long way. That's not uncommon for a pitcher who doesn't miss bats, and Saarloos definitely can't miss many bats.

That's probably just a side effect of being a fairly extreme groundball pitcher -- if the ball's hit in the air in the first place, there's a decent chance it was a mistake pitch, and those get crushed.

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by M2

Saarloos is a weird bird. His strikeout abilities have totally evaporated at the major league level. He's got a 8.17 K/9 in 218.2 minor league innings and a 4.34 K/9 in 440 major league innings. That major league number, almost miraculously, has gotten worse in recent years (3.70, 2.99 and 3.86). ... If it stays that low Saarloos can't hope to be anything but back of the rotation fodder even in the most optimistic of scenarios.

I checked his game log on MLB.com and saw he whiffed 11 in a five-inning outing against Cleveland in September. WTH happened?

[M2]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

Actually, I think you're seeing things quite clearly. Krivsky's scouts didn't like Shafer for some reason, so the team let him dominate at a low level, built his trade value, and then shipped him out.

Which is usually the smart thing to do even when your scouts do like a player. There's no shame in letting players put up compelling numbers. Somebody's bound to like a kid who had a big season.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by flyer85

Giving up Shafer doesn't bother but the only thing to like about Saarloos is his extreme GB tendencies. WIth that he still is a bit HR happy. Maybe with that sinker and slurve the transition to the NL will be to his liking. Not a lot of upside but it is a low risk/low value kind of a trade, which is an Ok deal, especially since the Reds have a dearth of starting pitching candidates heading into the season.

Shafer appears to need to make a transition to pitching longer stints. He did well as a late inning guy at AA, pitching one inning at a time. Later in the season they tried him in middle relief (where he is likely to pitch eventually) and he didn't do quite as well in longer outings.

Based on my reading about him, I would guess that he will have a big league career in middle relief. But he needs to build up his innings to be valuable.

While the various prospect rankings may say differently, the reliever from that group (Shafer, Medlock, etc.) who may have the most upside is Coutlangus, the lefty. I'm intrigued by him because he converted to pitching late but has had steady success ever since. I'm glad the Reds have held onto him so far.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by flyer85

which means he was probably a bit unlucky last year with that rate.

Possibly, but I want to know how the effectiveness of his sinker has shifted each season.

If his sinker loses effectiveness, then he'll just go down the Danny Graves road. When Graves' sinker was working in his prime, his HR/FB% was around 10 percent. When Graves' sinker went down the toilet, his HR/FB% jumped up beyond 15 percent, and that's when everything blew up.

[Falls City Beer]

Saarloos can help in the BP if nothing else.

[Red Leader]

Originally Posted by M2

Which is usually the smart thing to do even when your scouts do like a player. There's no shame in letting players put up compelling numbers. Somebody's bound to like a kid who had a big season.

True. That's a total 180 from the previous regimes. The past groups were very reluctant to let a player stay at a level and dominate it to build up their trade value. It seemed as though as soon as a player showed even an inkling of succeeding in one league, he was pushed to another to see if he could handle that. Not a very good idea if you're trying to establish some value in those players along the way.