Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

[redsmetz]

LOL - I just went over to the A's board to see what fan's reactions were there and someone posted this tongue in cheek comment

Instead of getting Schafer, we should have been after Homer Bailey.....yes, a pipe dream

Nice to see others recognizing our value. Some were exciting about Shaffer until someone pointed out that he's 25 and still in AA and seems to be topping out at 92 MPH.

[WVRedsFan]

Originally Posted by Spitball

Bellhorn is sort of a Dunn-lite when he gets the at bats. He strikes out a ton but will work for a walk. But, he is also inconsistent. Some years he just doesn't seem to get going and others his OBP is pretty decent. Maybe this will be an "on" year for him.

AT 32 years old, I tend to doubt that, but who knows? After last season batting on the interstate, I'm not sold.

Where does the million dollar number come from? Wasn't he signed to a minor league deal? Even if it was a million, that doesn't seem too crippling of a number.

I read an earlier clip somewhere (MLB maybe) that said he would be paid the $800,000 he got last year. I hope I'm wrong on that because with Conine, Crosby, Moehler, and a few others, you're talking $6-8 million on players who have not produced in a long time. Quantity does not equal quality, but maybe I expect too much.

I would think he would have to be having an extremely "on" year to take any playing time from Encarnacion. Like you said, he strikes out a ton plus his defense isn't superior. He is a role player who can play several positions, has some pop, will take a walk, and hopefully have a decent on base percentage.

You never know with Narron. Last year, Edwin was knocking the cover off the ball, but didn't play.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Anytime you can pick up a guy who's likely to outperform 2/5 of your rotation, and do so for nothing, you've made a solid move. No guarantees with Saarloos, but it's definitely better than not trying at all.

Yaaaaaaaaa.....he's a groundball pitcher!!!!!! just isn't good enough or frankly that compelling in and of itself.

Here's the thing....the Reds already had a better version of Saarloos in their clutches and they let him go to Japan....

Johnson: $3M/1 yr
04: xFIP: 4.51; GB%: 49; K/G: 5.7; BB: 2.7 ;
05: xFIP: 4.55; GB%: 52; K/G: 4.0; BB: 2.1;
06: xFIP: 4.79; GB%: 59; K/G: 4.2; BB: 2.4;

Saarloos: $1.2M/1yr
04: xFIP: 5.49; GB%: 53; K/G: 3.5; BB: 4.7;
05: xFIP: 4.79; GB%: 57; K/G: 3.0; BB: 3.0;
06: xFIP: 5.13; GB%: 54; K/G: 3.7; BB: 3.7;

So instead of better for $3M, they choose something of a facsimile for $1.2M plus something potentially useful. Basically this is payroll move on both ends... Beane saves money and gets something more useful to him then he's giving up and Krivsky saves money by getting the generic version of something he already had...

Basically, meh.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by jojo

Yaaaaaaaaa.....he's a groundball pitcher!!!!!! just isn't good enough or frankly that compelling in and of itself.

Here's the thing....the Reds already had a better version of Saarloos in their clutches and they let him go to Japan....

Johnson: $3M/1 yr
04: xFIP: 4.51; GB%: 49; K/G: 5.7; BB: 2.7 ;
05: xFIP: 4.55; GB%: 52; K/G: 4.0; BB: 2.1;
06: xFIP: 4.79; GB%: 59; K/G: 4.2; BB: 2.4;

Saarloos: $1.2M/1yr
04: xFIP: 5.49; GB%: 53; K/G: 3.5; BB: 4.7;
05: xFIP: 4.79; GB%: 57; K/G: 3.0; BB: 3.0;
06: xFIP: 5.13; GB%: 54; K/G: 3.7; BB: 3.7;

So instead of better for $3M, they choose something of a facsimile for $1.2M plus something potentially useful. Basically this is payroll move on both ends... Beane saves money and gets something more useful to him then he's giving up and Krivsky saves money by getting the generic version of something he already had...

Basically, meh.

I know what the numbers say, and, no, it's not his GB rate alone that makes him interesting. He's the height of unsexy, but he's dirt cheap, and could be a lot better than Milton, and even somewhat better than Lohse. Plus, he could come out of the bullpen. He's versatile and probably won't raise a stink being used as a swingman. A Jared Fernandez if you will. It beats someone who won't pitch in the majors this year in Shafer. Like I said, he obviously has warts, but as I said, he could help; the Reds MLB team is going to have a tough time finding people to eat innings, and Saarloos could probably do so if deployed properly. It's not going to vault the Reds to contention, but it may help with preventing Harang and Arroyo from throwing more innings than necessary.

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I know what the numbers say, and, no, it's not his GB rate alone that makes him interesting. He's the height of unsexy, but he's dirt cheap, and could be a lot better than Milton, and even somewhat better than Lohse. Plus, he could come out of the bullpen. He's versatile and probably won't raise a stink being used as a swingman. A Jared Fernandez if you will. It beats someone who won't pitch in the majors this year in Shafer. Like I said, he obviously has warts, but as I said, he could help; the Reds MLB team is going to have a tough time finding people to eat innings, and Saarloos could probably do so if deployed properly. It's not going to vault the Reds to contention, but it may help with preventing Harang and Arroyo from throwing more innings than necessary.

Which is critical in my opinion. Jerry can not run his horses into the ground again.

[WVRedsFan]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

Which is critical in my opinion. Jerry can not run his horses into the ground again.

Who's going to tell him "no"?

Jerry and Wayne have this "thing".

I just hope Harang and Arroyo don't come up injured.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I know what the numbers say, and, no, it's not his GB rate alone that makes him interesting. He's the height of unsexy, but he's dirt cheap, and could be a lot better than Milton, and even somewhat better than Lohse. Plus, he could come out of the bullpen. He's versatile and probably won't raise a stink being used as a swingman. A Jared Fernandez if you will. It beats someone who won't pitch in the majors this year in Shafer. Like I said, he obviously has warts, but as I said, he could help; the Reds MLB team is going to have a tough time finding people to eat innings, and Saarloos could probably do so if deployed properly. It's not going to vault the Reds to contention, but it may help with preventing Harang and Arroyo from throwing more innings than necessary.

Once again, if the Reds were so starved for innings eaters, why boot Johnson? Johnson is a better option to eat innings than Saarloos.

[Aronchis]

Originally Posted by jojo

Once again, if the Reds were so starved for innings eaters, why boot Johnson? Johnson is a better option to eat innings than Saarloos.

Because Johnson can't eat innings anymore. Saarloos wasn't a bad pickup for overhyped fluff like Shafer. Now if it had been Medlock, I wouldn't have been happy.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

Because Johnson can't eat innings anymore.

Why not? The only thing I see thats dramatically different between '05 and '06 for him was an unlucky BABIP in '06.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by jojo

Why not? The only thing I see thats dramatically different between '05 and '06 for him was an unlucky BABIP in '06.

Can Johnson come out of the pen?

Plus Saarloos is six years younger than Johnson. Not that money should matter all that much, but I'd rather pay Saarloos 1.2 than Johnson 3.

[mth123]

I don't see an upgrade for the rotation or any room in the pen. Seems like WK traded a guy who might be useful that he could stash at AAA for some one clearly inferior to what he already had.

Name	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP
Saarloos4.75	3.86	3.93	1.41	1.66	0.315
Santos	5.70	6.32	3.28	1.25	1.66	0.362
Ramirez	5.37	5.97	2.51	1.21	1.46	0.323
Belisle	3.60	5.85	4.28	1.13	1.55	0.306

I'm all for trading the minor league relief guys for an upgrade, but Saarloos will just cause the Reds to go with an inferior pitcher while probably exposing one of the other candidates to waivers and losing Shafer in the process.

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by jojo

04: xFIP: 5.49; GB%: 53; K/G: 3.5; BB: 4.7;
05: xFIP: 4.79; GB%: 57; K/G: 3.0; BB: 3.0;
06: xFIP: 5.13; GB%: 54; K/G: 3.7; BB: 3.7;

I generally give a lot of weight to defense-independent pitching stats, but Saarloos' ERA has consistently beaten the xFIPs you're showing. When a guy has a pretty consistent history of allowing fewer runs than peripherals or defense-independent measures say he should, I look for reasons why. What I found with Saarloos are two things, one marginal and one noteworthy:

1. While his home-run rate is nothing special, suggesting his mistakes get crushed, as a groundball pitcher his overall extra-base hit rate seems to be lower than the typical guy in his class. Not a ton lower, but a little lower.

2. Saarloos is better with runners on than with the bases empty. Not just a little better, a lot better. That's not normal at all. The typical MLB hurler is slightly better (about 30 OPS points, roughly) with the bases empty; from 2004-2006, Saarloos was better with runners on to the tune of 80 OPS points. DIPS, xFIP, etc. are blunt tools that assume the distribution of events is random, and in most cases that assumption is good enough. But there are such things as pitchers who are better or worse than the average bear at pitching out of trouble, and Saarloos appears to be one of the better ones.

[Eric_Davis]

Originally Posted by IslandRed

I generally give a lot of weight to defense-independent pitching stats, but Saarloos' ERA has consistently beaten the xFIPs you're showing. When a guy has a pretty consistent history of allowing fewer runs than peripherals or defense-independent measures say he should, I look for reasons why. What I found with Saarloos are two things, one marginal and one noteworthy:

1. While his home-run rate is nothing special, suggesting his mistakes get crushed, as a groundball pitcher his overall extra-base hit rate seems to be lower than the typical guy in his class. Not a ton lower, but a little lower.

2. Saarloos is better with runners on than with the bases empty. Not just a little better, a lot better. That's not normal at all. The typical MLB hurler is slightly better (about 30 OPS points, roughly) with the bases empty; from 2004-2006, Saarloos was better with runners on to the tune of 80 OPS points. DIPS, xFIP, etc. are blunt tools that assume the distribution of events is random, and in most cases that assumption is good enough. But there are such things as pitchers who are better or worse than the average bear at pitching out of trouble, and Saarloos appears to be one of the better ones.

Nice...

[DoogMinAmo]

Originally Posted by IslandRed

I generally give a lot of weight to defense-independent pitching stats, but Saarloos' ERA has consistently beaten the xFIPs you're showing. When a guy has a pretty consistent history of allowing fewer runs than peripherals or defense-independent measures say he should, I look for reasons why. What I found with Saarloos are two things, one marginal and one noteworthy:

1. While his home-run rate is nothing special, suggesting his mistakes get crushed, as a groundball pitcher his overall extra-base hit rate seems to be lower than the typical guy in his class. Not a ton lower, but a little lower.

2. Saarloos is better with runners on than with the bases empty. Not just a little better, a lot better. That's not normal at all. The typical MLB hurler is slightly better (about 30 OPS points, roughly) with the bases empty; from 2004-2006, Saarloos was better with runners on to the tune of 80 OPS points. DIPS, xFIP, etc. are blunt tools that assume the distribution of events is random, and in most cases that assumption is good enough. But there are such things as pitchers who are better or worse than the average bear at pitching out of trouble, and Saarloos appears to be one of the better ones.

Makes you woder if it is mental or physical? Does he concentrate more when runners are on, which means he has focus issues. Or does that mean he is a candidate for switching to the stretch full time? Could it be that simple?

[Gallen5862]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...int263178.html
Reds Add Saarloos To Staff
By Jim Callis
January 23, 2007

The Deal
The Reds can use some help at the back of their rotation and in middle relief, and they found some Tuesday. Cincinnati acquired Kirk Saarloos from the Athletics in exchange for Double-A reliever David Shafer. Both teams also will receive a player to be named later.
The Big Leaguers
A 27-year-old righthander, Saarloos has split his big league career between starting and relieving. He served both roles for Oakland last year, going 7-7, 4.75 with two saves in 35 games (16 starts). Opponents batted .308 with 15 homers against him, and he had more walks (53) than strikeouts (52) in 121 innings of work. He's a finesse guy without a put-away pitch, and he has to throw strikes and keep the ball down to succeed. He avoided arbitration by signing a one-year, $1.2 million contract earlier this month.
The Prospects
Shafer, a 24-year-old righty, went in the 31st round in 2001 and signed as a draft-and-follow out of Central Arizona JC the following spring. He has an average fastball (88-92 mph) and slider, and he commands both pitches well. He spent 2006 as the closer at Double-A Chattanooga, going 1-2, 2.36 with 26 saves in 44 appearances. He had a 52-16 K-BB ratio and held hitters to a .204 average with two homers. He projects as a sixth/seventh-inning reliever in the majors.
Quick Take
Saarloos doesn't have a high ceiling, but he can eat some innings and didn't cost the Reds a top prospect.


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