Reds trade for A's pitcher Saarloos

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Can Johnson come out of the pen?

Why wouldn't he be able to?

Plus Saarloos is six years younger than Johnson. Not that money should matter all that much, but I'd rather pay Saarloos 1.2 than Johnson 3.

Six years younger and quite a bit worse.

Personally, I don't like either of them. But at least the cost is minimal.

[Krusty]

Not a bad deal considering what pitchers are getting in free agency.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by mth123

I don't see an upgrade for the rotation or any room in the pen. Seems like WK traded a guy who might be useful that he could stash at AAA for some one clearly inferior to what he already had.

Name	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP
Saarloos4.75	3.86	3.93	1.41	1.66	0.315
Santos	5.70	6.32	3.28	1.25	1.66	0.362
Ramirez	5.37	5.97	2.51	1.21	1.46	0.323
Belisle	3.60	5.85	4.28	1.13	1.55	0.306

I'm all for trading the minor league relief guys for an upgrade, but Saarloos will just cause the Reds to go with an inferior pitcher while probably exposing one of the other candidates to waivers and losing Shafer in the process.

I don't see how these numbers show Saarloos to be inferior. Belisle had a better ERA -- but pitched only 40 innings all last year and has back problems. Ramirez was injured last year and, while a decent prospect, hardly showed last year that he is ready to pitch consistently in the majors. Santos' 5.70 ERA is rather high.

[flynn78]

I like it. Sounds like the upgrade on a budget that I was looking for.

[Bill]

Shafer put up good numbers every year. I liked him, but this reminds me of the A's grabbing Mike Neu from the Reds.

I don't expect anything from Saarloos though. He is a poor man's Jake Westbrook.

[Ron Madden]

Well at least this move dosen't hurt the Club.

Let's hope it helps the Club.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I don't see how these numbers show Saarloos to be inferior. Belisle had a better ERA -- but pitched only 40 innings all last year and has back problems. Ramirez was injured last year and, while a decent prospect, hardly showed last year that he is ready to pitch consistently in the majors. Santos' 5.70 ERA is rather high.

Ultra low K Rate, high HR Rate (while pitching in a good park to suppress HR), high Walk Rate and tons of baserunners. Guys who strike out fewer hitters while walking more and giving up more home runs are generally worse pitchers no matter what the ERA may say.

All three miss a lot more bats than Saarloos and allow fewer HR and Santos and Ramirez both have much better control.

None of these guys are studs. I just don't see how a team can give up anything remotely useful for a guy like Saarloos. I like that Shafer had options and could be stashed. That alone gives him more value than Saarloos given the Reds roster glut. The Reds are going to lose some other pitchers when the roster is pared to 25. As I see it, those pitchers are at least as likely to be effective as Saarloos is and it wouldn't have cost Shafer to keep one of those instead. Another move (say Lohse or Milton traded for something) would also make this move look better.

As I posted earlier in one of these threads, if injuries to the current guys are worse than advertised then this move make more sense.

I don't like this move, but its still WK's best move of the offseason.

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by mth123

I'm all for trading the minor league relief guys for an upgrade, but Saarloos will just cause the Reds to go with an inferior pitcher while probably exposing one of the other candidates to waivers and losing Shafer in the process.

Shafer the 24 year old pitcher in AA with what is described as an "average fastball" who projects at best to be a 7th/8th inning guy if he were to ever make it to the majors? Not sure I understand the big deal about losing Shafer.

Some folks cried when we let Zach Day go in trade. IIRC he wasn't picked up by any team when he had to clear waivers. Seems to me there was another farm system guy (not Wagner) who was part of a trade that went on to do nothing somewhere else (after people said we let a gem get away).

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

Shafer the 24 year old pitcher in AA with what is described as an "average fastball" who projects at best to be a 7th/8th inning guy if he were to ever make it to the majors? Not sure I understand the big deal about losing Shafer.

Some folks cried when we let Zach Day go in trade. IIRC he wasn't picked up by any team when he had to clear waivers. Seems to me there was another farm system guy (not Wagner) who was part of a trade that went on to do nothing somewhere else (after people said we let a gem get away).

Somebody has to pitch the 7th or 8th inning. Seems like WK spent over $7 Million of this year's payroll on three old guys who have the same profile and traded two of his better offensive players for 2 others.

Why not keep the cheaper younger option and use the money to acquire a real upgrade. Instead, the cheaper younger option is traded for junk, lots of other resources are expended to fill the 7th or 8th inning role that no one seems to value (except the guy expending all of those resources), and we hear that the rotation can't be upgraded because its too costly and the team doesn't have the resources (I wonder where they went).

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by mth123

Somebody has to pitch the 7th or 8th inning. Why not keep the cheaper younger option and use the money to acquire a real upgrade.

So you think Shafer is going to jump from AA and be effective in the bigs this year?

Because if not, you need somebody to pitch the 7th or 8th inning.

If he's in Cattanooga next year, he'll have a hard time making the sprint out to the mound at GABP.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

So you think Shafer is going to jump from AA and be effective in the bigs this year?

Because if not, you need somebody to pitch the 7th or 8th inning.

If he's in Cattanooga next year, he'll have a hard time making the sprint out to the mound at GABP.

Actually I do not think he was ready to start the season in the majors, but I think he could have been up by Memorial Day. He is at least as likely to be successful as Weathers, Cormier or Majewski. With the myriad of relief options at AA and AAA in 2006, I wouldn't have spent any money on the pen this offseason unless it was for a surefire stopper or a top set-up guy. I'd have kept the best out of spring training and went through them all until I found a good one or two guys.

Now they add another guy that they have to keep and can not be sent down. If he was a clear upgrade that would be great. This trade doesn't really improve anything and limits flexibility.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by DoogMinAmo

Makes you woder if it is mental or physical?

or fools gold....

Originally Posted by IslandRed

2. Saarloos is better with runners on than with the bases empty. Not just a little better, a lot better. That's not normal at all. The typical MLB hurler is slightly better (about 30 OPS points, roughly) with the bases empty; from 2004-2006, Saarloos was better with runners on to the tune of 80 OPS points. DIPS, xFIP, etc. are blunt tools that assume the distribution of events is random, and in most cases that assumption is good enough. But there are such things as pitchers who are better or worse than the average bear at pitching out of trouble, and Saarloos appears to be one of the better ones.

But if that is a skill, why isn't it reflected in his carreer LOB% (which is squarely at 71% or exactly league average)? The kind of beast you're describing is just the kind that the A's look for....if he's the real Mr Outlier, you'd have to wonder why they kicked him to the curve.

He gets alot of groundballs which is good because he lets alot of guys get on. Basically, he's a soft-tossing no upside guy who has no out pitch and relies upon control to be effective yet he walks as many as he strikes out.... He might win ten games out of the backend of the rotation for a perinial 90 win team that plays their home games in a pitcher's heaven in a division full of rivals who also have great pitcher's parks (excluding texas of course), but I'm not nearly as optimistic about him in GABP, Wrigley, in front of Houstan's short porch or in the Cards new digs...

This is probably just making a big deal about a relatively minor transaction but, meh....

[Hubba]

Could someone explain in detail what WHIP means? I forgot if I ever knew that is.
P.S. Good post Island Red.

[mbgrayson]

Originally Posted by Hubba

Could someone explain in detail what WHIP means? I forgot if I ever knew that is.
P.S. Good post Island Red.

Walks plus Hits allowed per Innings Pitched....

[Krusty]

The team needs sinkerball pitchers and they got one. If he wins 10+ games as the number 5 starter, I would be happy with that.