Reds' Top Ten Prospects Include Past And Future Chattanooga Lookouts

[OnBaseMachine]

Reds' Top Ten Prospects Include Past And Future Chattanooga Lookouts
Right Handed Pitcher Homer Bailey Is Number One
by Tim Evearitt
posted January 31, 2007

Assuming he arrives this summer, Jay Bruce may be the most exciting position player with the Lookouts since Adam Dunn. This photo was taken last March in Sarasota at the Cincinnati Reds training camp.

Baseball America’s top ten prospects for the Cincinnati Reds organization includes two former Chattanooga Lookouts, one returning Lookout, and perhaps two or three players who could arrive in 2007.

TOP TEN PROSPECTS

1. Homer Bailey, rhp

2. Jay Bruce, of

3. Joey Votto, 1b

4. Johnny Cueto, rhp

5. Drew Stubbs, of

6. Travis Woods, lhp

7. Sean Watson, rhp

8. Milton Loo, ss

9. Paul Janish, ss

10. Chris Valaika, ss

* * * * * * * *

As expected, Homer Bailey tops the list. Bailey, who made a huge impression pitching for Chattanooga, will start at Triple-A Louisville but could quickly move up to the Major Leagues.

#2 Jay Bruce is expected to open at High-A Sarasota but could be a mid-season callup to Chattanooga.

Baseball America notes that the league in which Bruce played (low Class A Midwest League) had other top draft selections – such as Cameron Maybin, Colby Rasmus and Justin Upton—but it was Bruce who ranked as the league’s No. 1 prospect. And even though he was the youngest player in the MWL all-star game, he came away with the MVP award. He led the league in doubles and extra-base hits (63).

#3 2006 Chattanooga first baseman Joey Votto should open the season with the Louisville Bats.

#9 Paul Janish made it to Chattanooga near the end of the 2006 season and is expected to return to the Lookouts.

#4 Pitcher Johnny Cueto is expected to begin the season with the Lookouts.

The other players are expected to spend the season at either Sarasota or Dayton (Low-A).

http://www.chattanoogan.com/articles/article_100825.asp

[dougdirt]

Nice find.... I havent checked out that site since the season ended. One thing I like about it is that Evearitt takes his camera to every game and posts new pictures with every write up.

[Edd Roush]

Did Travis Wood legally change his last name or something? What's up wtih every one calling him Travis Woods?

[Red Daddy]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Did Travis Wood legally change his last name or something? What's up wtih every one calling him Travis Woods?

That's a very good question. We must all come together and find this answer.

[M2]

The article's headline actually points out the glaring flaw with the Reds' top 10 list. Dependent on whether Bruce gets a mid-season callup, only half of the Reds' top prospects will have reached the high minors by the end of 2007.

I'm not blaming the current regime for that situation (though I'd like to see Krivsky pick up some more advanced talents), but it does serve as a reminder that there isn't much a cavalry arriving before 2010. Until then we're hoping for a few high quality guys to make up for the lack of quantity.

[Aronchis]

I get the feeling, the Krivsky Reds feel in 2008:
1)Bailey,Votto(and yes even Bruce by mid-season ala Dunn 2001) will be signifigent contributers that season so
2)They spent on yearly excess to try and leave a better taste in the mouth of the fan, hence the 'transitional progress' mantra leading into 2008
3)2008 they lose a good chunk of salary off the payroll and are close to getting Griffey off as well for 2009.

Sounds like a plan, though it depends on the studs and nobody on the roster(yes, Bronson) turning into dust. If Bailey arm blows out, Votto stagnate's or Bruce has a childhood trauma that regresses him(yes, it is a joke), the plan gets a nice chunk out of it.

Obviously the Reds feel by 2008, they will only have a couple real holes to fill and will do so in course.

The worst thing that may happen is everything blows up on the majors and inside the minors that tell Krivksy that his plan is dead, leading to a complete blowup of the entire roster and real rebuilding. Wayne would essentially admit he wasted 1.5-2 years. Knowing the Reds luck the last 10 years, that is what will exactly happen.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

Obviously the Reds feel by 2008, they will only have a couple real holes to fill and will do so in course.

Crazy bet if that's what they're consciously doing. Not adding a few guys to be part of that 2008 product during the current offseason would have to be considered a material failure on a 2008 plan. Seriously, if the plan is that 2008 is the big one then this offseason has been nothing short of a catastrophe, the organization has done nothing to strengthen that plan.

Though the crazier part is that three crucial players - Harang, Arroyo and Dunn - are only around through 2008 at this point. So the Reds currently are aiming at a one-year window. If anything goes wrong, and usually something does even in the best laid plans, then the team misses on 2008, a bunch of key talents walk away and the team is back to rebuilding. IMO, it's madness to put all your eggs in a one-year basket. Generally that's why I don't think that is the plan.

In fact, my summation of the "plan" would be that the Reds continue to do all the things that a baseball franchise does and maybe something good will pop up. Try a little of this, try a little of that. The past 12 month's course of events hasn't convinced me that anything approaching a structured plan is underway.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by M2

Crazy bet if that's what they're consciously doing. Not adding a few guys to be part of that 2008 product during the current offseason would have to be considered a material failure on a 2008 plan. Seriously, if the plan is that 2008 is the big one then this offseason has been nothing short of a catastrophe, the organization has done nothing to strengthen that plan.

Though the crazier part is that three crucial players - Harang, Arroyo and Dunn - are only around through 2008 at this point. So the Reds currently are aiming at a one-year window. If anything goes wrong, and usually something does even in the best laid plans, then the team misses on 2008, a bunch of key talents walk away and the team is back to rebuilding. IMO, it's madness to put all your eggs in a one-year basket. Generally that's why I don't think that is the plan.

In fact, my summation of the "plan" would be that the Reds continue to do all the things that a baseball franchise does and maybe something good will pop up. Try a little of this, try a little of that. The past 12 month's course of events hasn't convinced me that anything approaching a structured plan is underway.

Agree completely

[Aronchis]

What sounds like crazy slop to us probably is a plan to the Reds. Krivsky won't last IMO unless he starts developing something. Seems to be going year by year. One year window he wants to stretch into 10..........

[M2]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

What sounds like crazy slop to us probably is a plan to the Reds. Krivsky won't last IMO unless he starts developing something. Seems to be going year by year. One year window he wants to stretch into 10..........

Well, that's the thing about a plan. You can assess its strengths and weaknesses before it gets put into action.

I think Krivsky's clearly going year-by-year (more like day-by-day). As such, 2008 isn't anything special. Sure, Krivsky probably hopes some kids will arrive by then to help kick things up a notch, but he's not banking anything on it.

What he did this offseason was grab what he could in a few categories of need he identified heading into the offseason. Surely the particulars add up to less than he'd been hoping for. He thought he needed a glove at SS and he got it, and bloody little else, in Gonzalez. He wanted more bullpen help and Mike Stanton's what he landed on. He wanted a starting pitcher and the best he's been able to muster is Saarloos. He wanted a RH bat with some power and all he could find was Conine. Not a real good haul. More importantly, those aren't the actions of a guy who's taking a long view.

As you said, looks like a guy who hopes he can get things going right and then keep them going right after that. You could use that same description to fit most GMs. They try to make today into something workable and stockpile for tomorrow. Ultimately they rise or fall on their eye for talent.

Krivsky seems to be following the Terry Ryan model, grab veterans while you wait for kids. The "grab veterans" portion of Ryan's approach never worked. He fielded six straight losers before a pack of kids he'd put together arrived en masse and put the Twins on the right track. What the note about five prospects possibly being AA or better tells us is the Reds are a long way from having that sort of momentum coming from the farm system.

Ryan benefitted from a good economy and an owner who, frankly, doesn't care. Carl Pohlad wasn't losing money and the value of the franchise kept rising during Ryan's lean years. Historically, Cincinnati has been far less forgiving and Bob Castellini come across as a man with a sense of urgency.

So 2008 might be interesting in that it could be the year that keeps Krivsky around or it could be his Waterloo.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by M2

So 2008 might be interesting in that it could be the year that keeps Krivsky around or it could be his Waterloo.

Nothing is more frightening to me as a baseball fan than a GM who is more worried about keeping his job than the long term health of a franchise.