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Old 02-08-2007, 11:34 PM   #211
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Re: Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

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Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
Not much of a difference? Are you sure? I know this is a Reds board and we're all at least a little biased, but put BA on the Cards last year and have him sign this contract and I am sure more than a few people would throw the ol' "regression to the mean" phrase around.

Compare his tenure in the AL to Lilly's and then I guess Lilly's contract doesn't look so bad?
It's all in the wording, but maybe Arroyo's deal doesn't look so bad in light of Lilly's deal. Personally, I'd have been upset if they'd overpaid for a guy like Lilly. Even if Arroyo regresses a bit, I won't be too worried. To get a guy at his current performance level or slightly worse, the Reds would have to overpay. I'd rather they pay market value for a guy they have than overpay to bring someone like Lilly in. This was a big surprise. I'm a little worried about how this will look on the back end of the contract, but it's probably worth the risk.
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Old 02-08-2007, 11:37 PM   #212
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Re: Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

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Even this move can bring the Eeyore out of some folks.

Cracks me up.
Call me gloomy then. I would have preferred to see how Arroyo interacted with Dick Pole, before extending him for two more years. Bronson likes to throw from multiple arm slots and I'm just curious how that's going to work out going forward with a new pitching coach.

What really cracks me up is the number of times "the plan" was mentioned in this thread.
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Old 02-08-2007, 11:45 PM   #213
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Re: Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

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... For $4M, I don't think people can complain if that is in fact his destiny for '07. Basically, I think it's reasonable to expect him to be roughly as effective as last year but just not as lucky.

It's the last two years of the extension that I think are pretty risky.
And expensive...
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Old 02-08-2007, 11:46 PM   #214
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Re: Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

getting him for Wily Mo was just awesome. If we could get one more pitcher with these two and homer and this could get exciting. Maybe Loshe can be that guy. We know what we get with Milton. Only thing positive there is that it's contract year.
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Old 02-08-2007, 11:55 PM   #215
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Re: Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

Great job Krivsky! He deserves a hearty backslap for his work this past week.

Bravo too to Mr. Castellini for showing his willingness to open the checkbook.

Applause finally to these two men for spending reasonable money whilst avoiding the crazy free agent market we've witnessed this off-season.
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Old 02-08-2007, 11:57 PM   #216
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Re: Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

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Call me gloomy then. I would have preferred to see how Arroyo interacted with Dick Pole, before extending him for two more years. Bronson likes to throw from multiple arm slots and I'm just curious how that's going to work out going forward with a new pitching coach.

What really cracks me up is the number of times "the plan" was mentioned in this thread.
I'm not criticizing the move. I think it had to be done, but wonder the same thing. And I'm a little guy shy on extensions since Krivsky's blunder in extending Narron, but all in all a good move.

As for the plan, I haven't really seen any. The last two days' moves were something, like I said, that had to be done. All I've seen is throwing stuff at the wall to see if it will stick while preaching good pitching and defense.
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Old 02-08-2007, 11:58 PM   #217
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Re: Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

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What really cracks me up is the number of times "the plan" was mentioned in this thread.
True... but you heard?

The plan keeps coming up again
The plan means nothing stays the same

I'm wary, history is a tough master, take the 1970 Reds proposed starters.

Maloney - 29
Merritt - 26
McGlothlin - 26
Nolan - 21
Simpson - 21
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Old 02-09-2007, 12:02 AM   #218
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Re: Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

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Call me gloomy then. I would have preferred to see how Arroyo interacted with Dick Pole, before extending him for two more years. Bronson likes to throw from multiple arm slots and I'm just curious how that's going to work out going forward with a new pitching coach.
Of course, if Bronson throws a 2007 that is similar to 2008 it makes him that much more expensive (as a "known" commodity) and places him a year closer to free agency -- which might look more attractive than an extension when it's only a year away. Plus, if the pitching market explodes again, it could send salaries for top-flight pitchers soaring to the point where having both Bronson and Harang limits the ability to keep both.

Weigh that against his regression back to the mean (due to odds catching up to him or just not clicking with DP), and it is a risk that the Reds decided was worth taking.

Plus, the Reds just went and rewarded a player who had a fantastic year and became an indispensible part of the team. They were under no obligation to pay him a dime more for his next two years or to start negotiating this far in advance. Wanna bet that the at least 1 or 2 agents got called today and were notified that the Reds were being added to that particular player's "OK to trade me there" list?
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Old 02-09-2007, 12:04 AM   #219
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Re: Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

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Of course, if Bronson throws a 2007 that is similar to 2008 it makes him that much more expensive (as a "known" commodity) and places him a year closer to free agency -- which might look more attractive than an extension when it's only a year away. Plus, if the pitching market explodes again, it could send salaries for top-flight pitchers soaring to the point where having both Bronson and Harang limits the ability to keep both.

Weigh that against his regression back to the mean (due to odds catching up to him or just not clicking with DP), and it is a risk that the Reds decided was worth taking.

Plus, the Reds just went and rewarded a player who had a fantastic year and became an indispensible part of the team. They were under no obligation to pay him a dime more for his next two years or to start negotiating this far in advance. Wanna bet that the at least 1 or 2 agents got called today and were notified that the Reds were being added to that particular player's "OK to trade me there" list?
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Old 02-09-2007, 12:47 AM   #220
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Re: Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

Bronson announces he is "a Red through and through". Good to hear. I think that locking up Arroyo and Harang for the future was a good idea. They will be really good mentors to Homer. For the first time in a while I think we are going in the right direction with our pitching idea. Let's see where this takes us, but I am cautiously stupidly optimistic.
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Old 02-09-2007, 05:16 AM   #221
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Re: Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

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It is better than it was. That doesn't justify all his moves, or mean that it is as good as it will likely need to be, but it is better whether you want to admit it or not.
The secret to any successful bull pen is rubber armed pitchers with different talents and skill sets and a Manager who has the ability to identify those talents and skill sets.

A good Manager can make an average pen look good. A bad Manager can make a good pen look bad. (JMHO)
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Old 02-09-2007, 05:34 AM   #222
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Re: Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

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the pen isn't better. it's older yes, but not better. and really, better than what? it was in a constant state of flux mired in crap last year. now it's stable crap. that's really a wash.
Scary aint it?

Narron has no clue how or when to use his relief pitchers.
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Old 02-09-2007, 08:16 AM   #223
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Re: Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

OK. If (and I say "If") Milton has a decent year this season..... does this team try to resign him looking at what has went down in this past winter's FA market?

I'm not advocating it or saying they should.... do you think they'll try?
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Old 02-09-2007, 08:42 AM   #224
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Re: Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

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OK. If (and I say "If") Milton has a decent year this season..... does this team try to resign him looking at what has went down in this past winter's FA market?

I'm not advocating it or saying they should.... do you think they'll try?
GAC, I think this question (and it's a really good one) deserves a thread of its own.
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Old 02-09-2007, 10:10 AM   #225
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Re: Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

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you honestly have to ask?

Hey now, "Barbarella" is a fantastic song. Of course, everything else he's written in the past 10 years is pretty lousy...
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