Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

[Shaknb8k]

Im not throwing out this year by any means but take a look at '08. $10.65 million for Arroyo and Harang. It will be interesting to see how Dunn's '08 option is handled.

Not only 2007 but also 2008 are both steals for these two players. Once the price goes up a lot for them some of these awful contracts will be off the books ('07-Milton/ '08-Griffey) as well as the farm system should be starting to produce. Call me crazy but I think Krivsky's Plan is starting to become pretty clear.

[Gallen5862]

This is great news. I love this move. It shows the team and the fans that ownership is willing to spend money to lock in key players.

[RedsManRick]

For what it's worth, using PECOTA's MORP (Marginal value Over Replacement Player), which is meant to be a measurement VORP translated in to free agent dollars....

	Salary		MORP		Difference	VORP
2007 	$4,125,000	$12,900,000 	-$8,775,000	29.2
bonus	$2,000,000	$0		+$2,000,000
2008 	$3,950,000	$10,725,000 	-$6,275,000	23.0
2009 	$9,500,000	$8,525,000 	+$975,000	16.4
2010 	$11,000,000	$6,925,000 	+$4,075,000	13.4
buyout	$2,000,000	$0		+$2,000,000
Total   $32,575,000	$39,075,000	+$6,500,000

2011 	$9,000,000	$5,275,000 	+$3,725,000	9.7
Total   $41,575,000	$44,035,000	+$2,460,000

Basically we're getting a ton of value in the next two seasons and not getting value after that. We still do ok in the end. Of course, the caveats:

- Arroyo wasn't a FA until '09 (when we no longer get a good dea in terms of MORP). In other words. According to PECOTA, we just agreed to pay him more than he would've gotten during the period he was already locked up and more than he will be worth during the extended portion.
- PECOTA uses the possiblity of a devestating injury in its calculations. That is, a prediction of 25 GS is the average of all the possibilities including 0 starts and 35 starts. On AVERAGE, PECOTA works well, but when playing time differs significantly (ie. if Arroyo stays healthy), it's valuations are way off. The confidence you should have in ANY projection should fall off the table after 2-3 years because of the variability of health, if nothing else.
- The true FA market could swing wildly. In a market where Ted Lilly gets $10 MM per, if Arroyo can sustain his value, he's a bargain. But we don't know what the market will be like when he would have hit FA in 2009.
- I don't know if MORP is inflation adjusted. The 11MM he's getting in 2010 is only worth about 9MM in 2007 MLB dollars.

[remdog]

I think this bodes well for Adam Dunn. With these two deals, the Reds have shown that they will pay players that produce. I look for Dunn to have an improved year in '07 and I think the Reds and Adam have a better chance to get together on a contract than they did two days ago.

Rem

[pedro]

The goes a long way towards creating the appearance of a team culture that will attract players to come to or stay in Cincinnati. The Reds didn't have have give Arroyo more money over the next two years, but it appears that they have. Players like it when they feel they are being dealt with fairly and you can bet that they all talk with other players about how they feel they are being treated by management. I think this will pay dividends towards that end for the Reds.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by remdog

I think this bodes wll for Adam Dunn.

I see it the other way, I think it is more of a sign that Dunn will be gone. WayneK is building his pitching and defense team. Dunn seems unlikely to be a part of that vision. BTW, I hope I'm wrong.

Plus when the big bucks is due Harang and Arroyo is when Jr and Dunn come off the payroll.

[Benihana]

Great, great news! I can't recall another bout of back-to-back days of universally pleasing Reds personell news in many years. Harang-Arroyo-Bailey for the next four years sounds too good to be true. Let Lohse, Saarloos, and (gasp) Milton be the stopgaps before the Cuetos and Woods of the world come to bear, and the Wayne's plan is looking good to quite good.

Encarnacion, Phillips, Dunn, Bruce and Votto provide a pretty good core of position players. Now lets get our bullpen on track!

[remdog]

Originally Posted by flyer85

I see it the other way, I think it is more of a sign that Dunn will be gone. WayneK is building his pitching and defense team. Dunn seems unlikely to be a part of that vision. BTW, I hope I'm wrong.

I can see how you could draw that conclusion, 85. But someone has to be able to hit the ball out of the infield no matter how good your pitching or D is. If Dunn and Jr. are gone it shifts the burden to EE and ???. To figure that Bruce and Votto can walk into the Majors and, along with EE, carry the lineup would be folly. With this move the Reds seem to be saying that they prefer the player they know. (shrug) You could be correct though.

Rem

[Heath]

Originally Posted by kbrake

Great move. You got to admit its getting better.

I will have to admit it's getting better.

Getting Better all the time.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by remdog

Good move but not a great move.

First of all, kudos to Krivsky for being proactive in retaining his own players. This will help players understand that if they produce management will be aggressive about rewarding them. Long-term result : good.

OTOH, this does nothing about '07 except to make me think that the Reds are 'mailing it in' and hoping for a long-shot cindarella season by 6-8 guys. The two signings add no one on the field this year that wouldn't have been there anyway. Short-term result: not so good.

IMO, this pretty much says that the plan is not to rush Homer. With Harang and BA tied up for 4 years the Reds can afford to do things right with Bailey. Short and long-term result: good.

Of course, if the Reds tank early and Arroyo reverts to pre-'06 form, it will make moving him at the trade deadline that much tougher. Short-term result: not so good.

All in all, an OK move for the short-term, a better move for the long-term.

Rem

Good point. However, I think you can add to your point about the long term value. As we move in to FA in coming years, they know that the Reds have a core signed long term and perhaps would feel more comfortable about committing themselves to the team. This has been a significant problem for us and these signings should make a good impression.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by pedro

The goes a long way towards creating the appearance of a team culture that will attract players to come to or stay in Cincinnati. The Reds didn't have have give Arroyo more money over the next two years, but it appears that they have. Players like it when they feel they are being dealt with fairly and you can bet that they all talk with other players about how they feel they are being treated by management. I think this will pay dividends towards that end for the Reds.

Yup. In order to turn any franchise around, you have to create a climate that welcomes top talent in.

That was the hope when Griffey came, but the management never followed through and continued the momentum.

[pedro]

I just read the particulars and Arroyo gets a 2.5 million dollar signing bonus next year so that's the only change over next 2 years.

[Jpup]

Wow, I never expected this. I guess the poor moutch talk is going to stop. Congrats to Bronson, I guess he like Cincinnati after all. It's time to turn the Reds into something great and Krivsky has made 2 good steps in the last 2 days.

With the Twins, I believe, Krivsky did a lot of the contracts. He's showing how good he is with that now. While I think Arroyo's value will never be higher than it is right now, it's a pretty good deal for both sides.

[Matt700wlw]

What a good week!!

[kbrake]

Originally Posted by Heath

I will have to admit it's getting better.

Getting Better all the time.

Was wondering if anyone would catch that. I dont know when I get good news like this I always tend to break out in song.