Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

Exactly. They're keeping the window open, and I'm happy about that.

Oddly enough, Johnny, you are the first person I thought of when I heard the news. That is, your commentary on the window of opportunity that we have available to us. These contracts most certinally extend that window a bit further, and do so for a reasonable amount of money.

Two good days in a row!

[remdog]

Originally Posted by Matt700wlw

build a team around pitching and defense.

So, let's look at that. What pitchers has he added for '07 that put a song in your heart? I look at the list and I sing a dirge.

How about defense? Sure, Gonzo is better than Clayton but his shadow (Castro) was already signed. Other than that, I haven't seen any defensive 'upgrades'. It's obvious that he intends to give Conine a lot of playing time in the OF and at 1st base and he's sub-par at either spot. He traded a better defensive catcher (LaRue) in order to go with a tandem of Ross and Valentin which would certainly be below league average.

Mind you, from my viewpoint this is all predicated on my opinion that the '07 division title is there for the taking. If you don't care about or think the Reds can win in '07 then these moves make some sense. But one more solid+ starter makes the Reds the betting choice, IMO. And Wayne could have had that for less than the $23M he spent on dreck and still have done the deals of the last two days!!

Sometimes you happen upon a unique window of opportunity and you have to take advantage of that! I believe that, in this division, '07 is one of those rare opportunities. If you don't share my viewpoint I completely understand why my rants and rambleings make no sense to you and I'm fine with that. (shrug)

I simply think that we missed a terrific opportunity to jump in front of the pack in '07. And now, with the signings of the last two days, that advantage of winning in '07 would have been even greater.

JMO.

Rem

[Will M]

Originally Posted by BRM

Is the 2007 Reds defense that much better than last year's version? I see Gonzo but what else has Wayne done that would constitute a defensive upgrade? I know moving Griffey out of CF would be a BIG sign that he's serious about improving that area. We'll find out if that happens in the next couple of months.

EE and Phillips are both expected to be better defensively with a year under their belts.
They both seem to be hard worker and have the skill sets to be good defenders.

Moving Griffey out of CF will be HUGE. He just doesn't have the range that Freel and Deno do.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Matt700wlw

I think he wants to develop those in the minor leagues...

So for the time being, he brings in experienced pitchers and crosses his fingers.

Finger crossing, I knew that had to be a central tenet of the plan.

I'm sure he'd like to develop those arms too. Problem is that the best arm he got in the 2006 draft was a high schooler who won't show up until after the Harang and Arroyo extensions are done (some might say Sean Watson, but that guy does nothing for me). Outside of Homer Bailey (who turns 21 in May and it can't be overstated how much kids that age struggle in the majors) there really aren't any starters on the near horizon.

If this is a plan, a conscious effort to deliver something specific on a given timetable, then the Reds need to find more arms from outside. There simply isn't enough talent in the pipeline to develop what the team needs.

While these moves do give the Reds a much better long-term profile, I still think Krivsky's mostly reactive as a GM. While he's made some mistakes and I'm completely underwhelmed by his offseason acquisitions, I think he's an all right GM. He's good with contracts, even when he's brought in some players I'd rather see the team avoid they haven't been on albatross deals. He reacts quickly when he's got a perceived need or when an opportunity presents itself. He does seem to routinely take stock of his team in order to determine what it needs. Most of all, he seems to have a good disposition - nononsense approach, willing to try something different, might even be one of those guys who'll learn things on the job.

Anyway, Krivsky's got a number of traits worthy of praise, but strategic planning doesn't seem to be one of them.

[corkedbat]

Great moves!

I'd love to see them somehow pickup a solid young lefty to stick in with Harang, Arroyo and Bailey, then get a bat, closer or something (anything) useful for Milton and or Lohse and maybe a spare BP arm or two.


Locking up Arroyo is a solid move to me. If nothing else, youhave him happy and appreciated for to more year and then he should be still attractive (unless theres a major injury) in a couple of years - about the time that Cueto and/or Wood are about ready to come on line.

I still get the feeling that there will be one more semi-significant acquisition before the season starts for some reason.

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

Oddly enough, Johnny, you are the first person I thought of when I heard the news. That is, your commentary on the window of opportunity that we have available to us. These contracts most certinally extend that window a bit further, and do so for a reasonable amount of money.

I had been harping on that "window" pretty hard for the past few months. I was thinking about 2008 and hearing the clock tick louder and louder. Now it's gone quiet.

If nothing else, this gives the team some breathing room. Let's hope this allows Krivsky to focus on the team's three main weaknesses either now (doubtful) or next winter: a #3 starter, a closer, and a RH bat.

[Puffy]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

I had been harping on that "window" pretty hard for the past few months. I was thinking about 2008 and hearing the clock tick louder and louder. Now it's gone quiet.

If nothing else, this gives the team some breathing room. Let's hope this allows Krivsky to focus on the team's three main weaknesses either now (doubtful) or next winter: a #3 starter, a closer, and a RH bat.

I think in 2008 Homer Bailey becomes that number 3 starter - he gets a taste this year (hopefully Papelbohn style, ie out of the pen) and then in 08 is in the rotation. Provided he tears up Triple AAA past the all-star break.

So I think that becomes servicable #4 starter, closer and RH bat, IMO

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by M2

Finger crossing, I knew that had to be a central tenet of the plan.

I'm sure he'd like to develop those arms too. Problem is that the best arm he got in the 2006 draft was a high schooler who won't show up until after the Harang and Arroyo extensions are done (some might say Sean Watson, but that guy does nothing for me). Outside of Homer Bailey (who turns 21 in May and it can't be overstated how much kids that age struggle in the majors) there really aren't any starters on the near horizon.

If this is a plan, a conscious effort to deliver something specific on a given timetable, then the Reds need to find more arms from outside. There simply isn't enough talent in the pipeline to develop what the team needs.


Anyway, Krivsky's got a number of traits worthy of praise, but strategic planning doesn't seem to be one of them.

I think Krivsky is a good strategic planner. But he has a longer-term horizon than some would like.

But for many of us, the emphasis on short-term results was based on the "window" of having two good starters for a year or two. Now, with these signings, you start to get the picture of a longer term plan.

Obviously, more starting pitchers are needed as is a closer. But with a somewhat longer time horizon, you can see a rotation shaping up. Harang, Arroyo, Bailey plus two. Obviously, there will have to be focus on the two and a closer.

Defense will be emphasized. Offense is the last piece, with no big financial commitments to offense until the pitching and defense is solidified. Therefore, you get signings like Conine, rather than a more expensive righty bat.

As for the draft, looks to me like Krivsky wants a lot of picks, a lot of depth. Not going so much for stars (which is hit or miss) but going for depth with a lot of trading chips.

I think it is a plan. Execution? We'll see.

[Aronchis]

Bad move, considering Arroyo is about ready to turn into a Pumpkin. He should have been let go after the 2008 season if not traded earlier.

Krivsky is truly planless. His only plan seems to be: Wait to Homer Bailey gets here, the fun will really begin then!!!! Poor Homer.

Of course finding a lefty for 2008 should be Krivsky's priority, but he is probably just counting on Travis Wood lol.

When does the new GM count on the former GMs's prospects to throw you over the top?

[vaticanplum]

I think this is extraordinary. Everything good that anybody has said, I basically agree with. To the bad points, I say: trade value. I hope that doesn't happen, but it's there if it needs to be.

No deal in baseball should be made on a psychological basis, but psychologically, the effects of this are huge. Administratively, the front office has an enormous monkey off itsr back. To not have to worry about the front 2 starting rotations spots (barring injury) is huge. The strengths are solidified. Now they can truly take all their time and money to address the weaknesses. Psychologically for the players: Harang and Arroyo are set, they can do their jobs. The rest of the players are shown that the organization is committed to a long-term, winning team, and I believe that players like Dunn stand to step up to that. Players outside the organization are shown that two of the top NL pitchers -- who stood to make a good deal of FA money in this market -- want to pitch in Cincinnati long-term. That means something.

I swear, I spend an awful lot of days cursing myself for being so emotionally invested in a baseball team -- and a baseball team that has been largely awful most of the time I've been following it to boot. Most of the time I honestly think it's damaging to me. It's time consuming and it's draining, and I wonder if my life would really be that different without baseball in it. And days like this, I understand. In fact I wonder how anyone with great capacity for joy in their souls can afford not to follow baseball.

[Marc D]

Originally Posted by M2

Finger crossing, I knew that had to be a central tenet of the plan.

There simply isn't enough talent in the pipeline to develop what the team needs.

Krivsky's got a number of traits worthy of praise, but strategic planning doesn't seem to be one of them.

As always, insightful and spot on.

[westofyou]

When does the new GM count on the former GMs's prospects to throw you over the top?

When your name is John Schurholtz?

[Matt700wlw]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

Bad move, considering Arroyo is about ready to turn into a Pumpkin. He should have been let go after the 2008 season if not traded earlier.

Krivsky is truly planless. His only plan seems to be: Wait to Homer Bailey gets here, the fun will really begin then!!!! Poor Homer.

You're spoiling the party

[pedro]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

Bad move, considering Arroyo is about ready to turn into a Pumpkin. He should have been let go after the 2008 season if not traded earlier.

Krivsky is truly planless. His only plan seems to be: Wait to Homer Bailey gets here, the fun will really begin then!!!! Poor Homer.

Of course finding a lefty for 2008 should be Krivsky's priority, but he is probably just counting on Travis Wood lol.

When does the new GM count on the former GMs's prospects to throw you over the top?

I think you're going to be proven wrong about Arroyo. Very wrong.

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by Puffy

I think in 2008 Homer Bailey becomes that number 3 starter - he gets a taste this year (hopefully Papelbohn style, ie out of the pen) and then in 08 is in the rotation. Provided he tears up Triple AAA past the all-star break.

So I think that becomes servicable #4 starter, closer and RH bat, IMO

I wish they wouldn't wait that long, or put that much pressure on Bailey. Unfortunately, looking at the crop of free agent SPs for 2008, I think it becomes a #4 starter by default. The only one's in the Reds' price range figure to be Jason Jennings and Jake Westbrook. Jennings would be fine, but Westbrook is a #4 at best.