O/U for Reds wins this year

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey

The O/U for the Reds was pretty low last year (something like 70.5). I wonder what they will open at this year. My guess is 80.5 and will probably take the over just to be loyal. No, I really think we are going to have a winning club this year. Just barely, but a winning club. My early projection is 83-79.

I think you're spot on (see here for why). I wouldn't touch the O/U at 80.5. I'd be comfortable going over at 70.5 though...

[guttle11]

83 wins.

[Heath]

Originally Posted by guttle11

83 wins.

That won the division last year.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

76-86

[bucksfan2]

75

[guttle11]

Originally Posted by Heath

That won the division last year.

It won't this year. I just think that's where this team is. I think 30 wins out of Arroyo/Harang is reasonable, and 25 losses from the bottom 2 is reasonable. I think the bullpen will lose a few more than they'll win, and they'll do an ok job if holding leads.

They key will be that third spot. Be it Milton, or even Bailey down the line, I think that spot will provide slightly more good than bad, thus leading to a slightly better than .500 record.

[TheBurn]

Ocho-cinco

[Eric_Davis]

Originally Posted by Shaggy Sanchez

I hate to say it but it really wouldn't surprise me if this team lost 100 games. I think it will be more along the lines of 68-73 wins though.

Isn't Shaggy the one that always predicts doom, kind of like Eeyore?

With expectations like those, you should enjoy this season tremendously as they finish 25-30 games higher that what you "wouldn't be surprised in seeing".

[Handofdeath]

85 wins. I expect 35 wins from Harang and Arroyo. I think Lohse, Saarloos, and Milton can combine for about 35 themselves. Saarloos and Lohse have both had double digit win seasons, as well as Milton. 85-77 and 3rd in the NL Central.

Harang 19 wins Cy Young Award Winner
Arroyo 16 wins
Lohse 14 wins
Saarloos 11 wins
Milton 10 wins

Coffey will lead the team in saves with 25 but Guardado will finish the season as the Reds closer.

Offensively EE is the team MVP with a 25/108/.295 season and defensively Alex Gonzalez wins the NL Gold Glove at SS.

[bucksfan2]

I said 75 earlier. But what you have to look at is what the maxium number or wins the reds can have. I think their ceiling is 88 wins. If things go right I think that is about what they can win. I dont even want to look at the bottom but they could lose a lot of games this year if injuries happen, not to mention the fact that the reds have the most inept manager this side of Bob Boone.

[Eric_Davis]

28-37 w/ Junior in Center Field
58-39 w/ Junior anywhere else

86-76 overall.

[Highlifeman21]

74 wins

[Triples]

Originally Posted by mth123

Last year's team won games at an above .500 level in the first half with:

1. Hatte, Ross, and Phillips playing at higher than should be expected levels.
2. Kearns, Lopez and Aurilia contributing a lot of offense
3. Quality Starts from Milton and Ramirez (both coming off surgery)

And in the second half the Reds had:

1. A first time around the league rotation boost from Kyle Lohse
2. Other Worldly, BABIP driven, relief performances from Weathers and Schoeneweiss

And throughout the season won a number of games it should have lost from unlikely to be repeated drama in the form of:

1. Dunn's Grand Slam walk-off
2. Griffey's HR the first day off the DL
3. Ryan Freel's catch
4. David Ross Walk-off
5. Javy Heroics
6. Chris Michalek out of nowhere relief appearance in Philly
etc. etc. etc.

I just do not see many of these things being repeated or replaced. The Reds will no doubt get some help from unexpected sources, improvement from Dunn and Encarnacion, other exciting finishes, and maybe even more help from Bray and Maj than most expect, but this team has lost too much offensive talent from the time that it was good in 2006 (June) and have made no real improvement in any area for 2007 with the exception of defense at SS.

I am much more upbeat about the fanchise since the Harang and Arroyo deals, and I don't want to be a downer, but I can't get past the facts. I say 69 Wins in 2007.

mth123:

I don't understand why you don't see these things happening again this year. What's different about Dunn's hitting or Freel's defense/all out play, etc, etc, etc that makes you think they won't make similar things happen again this year. And, its not like the pitchers you mentioned came directly from another planet last year. There were scouting reports on them and some of the opposing teams players had very likely seen them before.

I think maybe your post is just a mirror image of what may really take place. Maybe all those instances of brillance are an indication of what is hiding just below the surface. (I certainly don't attribute it to fate, but rather to the these guys' competitiveness and talent). If we have a Reds team that is together for a full season (as opposed to the revolving door from last year) the frequency of such outstanding play will be multiplied not subtracted. Team chemistry does play a role in how often outstanding play is exhibited. Given Krivisky's zealous trading philosophy last year, my guess is that most of the Reds were so tight from wondering if they were next in line for the ax that they squeaked when they walked . Give these guys a chance to play a little looser and we might just see a lot more of what we saw last year.

I'm being optimistic; I'm going with 85-88 wins!

[klw]

Originally Posted by mth123

And throughout the season won a number of games it should have lost from unlikely to be repeated drama in the form of:

1. Dunn's Grand Slam walk-off
2. Griffey's HR the first day off the DL
3. Ryan Freel's catch
4. David Ross Walk-off
5. Javy Heroics
6. Chris Michalek out of nowhere relief appearance in Philly
etc. etc. etc.

I just do not see many of these things being repeated or replaced. .

These things usually balance themselves out. Witness these 8 bad losses from last year.

4/16 vs St. Louis     8-7  http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260416124
5/20 vs Detroit       7-6 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260520106  
6/10 vs Chicago      4-2 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260610117
6/12 vs Milwaukee    6-5 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260612117
6/27 vs KC             9-8 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260627117
7/3   vs Milwaukee    8-7 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260703108
7/5   vs Milwaukee    6-5 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260705108
8/11 vs Philladelphia  6-5  http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260811122

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

75

I agree. Not too high, not too low.