Good Lohse piece

[Spike]

Originally Posted by jojo

Maybe by your definition. Breakout year implies going from good to great... Lohse of course has never been good and the hope is he basically is league average next year....

How about 12 Wins and a 3.95 ERA? Breakout or no? If yes, I will contribute $10.00 to the United Way if he doesn't. (Moderators, this is charity, not gambling...)

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Spike

How about 12 Wins and a 3.95 ERA? Breakout or no? If yes, I will contribute $10.00 to the United Way if he doesn't. (Moderators, this is charity, not gambling...)

Why choose those metrics for a pitcher?

How about an xFIP of 3.95 over 200 IP....

[Falls City Beer]

Brett Tomko.

[edabbs44]

Lohse will be pitching mop up games by June.

[Spike]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Brett Tomko.

Johnny Bench.

(Are we picking our favorite players, or are you referring to Tomko's 2004 season?)
Year Team INN GS W L S K BBI HA ERA
2004 SF 194.0 31 11 7 0 108 64 196 4.036

He was 31. Gut feeling? Not the same!

Nobody seems to be going for the $10.00 bet (I mean contribution...)

[Redmachine2003]

Milton and Loshe are set for breakout years because it is show me the money years which could be a very good thing for the Reds

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Spike

Johnny Bench.

(Are we picking our favorite players, or are you referring to Tomko's 2004 season?)
Year Team INN GS W L S K BBI HA ERA
2004 SF 194.0 31 11 7 0 108 64 196 4.036

He was 31. Gut feeling? Not the same!

Nobody seems to be going for the $10.00 bet (I mean contribution...)

I wish Vegas would give me that O/U.

[Candy Cummings]

It isn't age, but Lohse has a few too many miles under the tires to be expected to suddenly turn into something really good. Could he go 12 wins and 3.95? I suppose, but that's not what a breakout means.

Perhaps a dumb question--with his stuff, could he close?

[Razor Shines]

Originally Posted by Candy Cummings

It isn't age, but Lohse has a few too many miles under the tires to be expected to suddenly turn into something really good. Could he go 12 wins and 3.95? I suppose, but that's not what a breakout means.

Perhaps a dumb question--with his stuff, could he close?

It's not that ridiculous. Carpenter had almost 900 innings in the AL before he went to the Cards and "broke out". And was about the same age as Loshe. He had some pretty bad seasons in the AL too. Now I don't really expect Loshe to perform anywhere near Carp, but I don't think it's because he has "too many miles under the tires", unless you're talking about actual miles on real tires. In that case you could be right.

[Candy Cummings]

We'll see. I hope he does break out. Note: I didn't say it was ridiculous.

[Falls City Beer]

Carpenter was always hampered by injury; Lohse has no such excuse. Just like Tomko. Their careers (Tomko's and Lohse's) are eerily similar.

Really, a solid argument could be made that Tomko's had the better career.

[D-Man]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Carpenter was always hampered by injury; Lohse has no such excuse. Just like Tomko. Their careers (Tomko's and Lohse's) are eerily similar.

Really, a solid argument could be made that Tomko's had the better career.

Key difference is that Lohse's performance has been manic, whereas Tomko just didn't have the mental concentration to get through six frames. Lohse can get through six frames some days, but just can't do it every fifth day consistently.

I think a more interesting comp for Lohse is Matt Clement. They both have great stuff, had complete lack of control in the early years, had good physical health through their mid-20s. . . but it just takes a change of scenery and a long, long time to put it all together (if ever, for Lohse).

Redmachine2003 is right--this is payday year, so Lohse is a good breakout candidate.

[Razor Shines]

Originally Posted by D-Man

Key difference is that Lohse's performance has been manic, whereas Tomko just didn't have the mental concentration to get through six frames. Lohse can get through six frames some days, but just can't do it every fifth day consistently.

I think a more interesting comp for Lohse is Matt Clement. They both have great stuff, had complete lack of control in the early years, had good physical health through their mid-20s. . . but it just takes a change of scenery and a long, long time to put it all together (if ever, for Lohse).

Redmachine2003 is right--this is payday year, so Lohse is a good breakout candidate.

It seems to me that Lohse will be going along fine and then he'll have an inning where it seems like he forgets that he's pitching, or atleast that there's a batter at the plate.

[Spike]

Originally Posted by Candy Cummings

It isn't age, but Lohse has a few too many miles under the tires to be expected to suddenly turn into something really good. Could he go 12 wins and 3.95? I suppose, but that's not what a breakout means.

Perhaps a dumb question--with his stuff, could he close?

Could he go 12 wins and 3.95? I suppose, but that's not what a breakout means

New Angle. What does a breakout mean? (Let's take the top 5 at any postion out of the equation. There are your Pujols and Santanas. What does a breakout mean beyond the superstar level?)

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by princeton

if he throws a few breakout games, then trade him quickly

Great idea. Will never, ever happen though. If he pitches well here, they won't want to get rid of him. They might even sign him to a long term deal. The Reds have been - and are - so pitching hungry that they will hang on to anyone who pitches well.