Good Lohse piece

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by D-Man

Key difference is that Lohse's performance has been manic, whereas Tomko just didn't have the mental concentration to get through six frames. Lohse can get through six frames some days, but just can't do it every fifth day consistently.

I think a more interesting comp for Lohse is Matt Clement. They both have great stuff, had complete lack of control in the early years, had good physical health through their mid-20s. . . but it just takes a change of scenery and a long, long time to put it all together (if ever, for Lohse).

Redmachine2003 is right--this is payday year, so Lohse is a good breakout candidate.

Clement was a good pitcher for a long time and a very good pitcher for a short time. Lohse has never been a good pitcher--only respectable in fits and starts; just like Tomko. That's a pretty important difference.

[RANDY IN INDY]

Originally Posted by Spike

Could he go 12 wins and 3.95? I suppose, but that's not what a breakout means

New Angle. What does a breakout mean? (Let's take the top 5 at any postion out of the equation. There are your Pujols and Santanas. What does a breakout mean beyond the superstar level?)

I think the ridiculous signings over the winter can answer that question to a degree. Breakout ain't what it used to be.

[edabbs44]

12 wins and a 3.95 era would probably be a breakout for Lohse. Any pitcher cutting his ERA almost in half in one year would be a breakout.

[redsfan30]

Originally Posted by Redmachine2003

Milton and Loshe are set for breakout years because it is show me the money years which could be a very good thing for the Reds

This is a fact that I think gets overlooked quite a bit. It's a contract year for both of them, therefore I wouldn't be surprised to see them both have as good a year this year as they've had in a long time.

[BRM]

The last time Milton was in a contract year he threw up a 4.75 ERA while giving up 43 bombs. He also had an OPSA of .810.

[redsfan30]

Originally Posted by BRM

The last time Milton was in a contract year he threw up a 4.75 ERA while giving up 43 bombs. He also had an OPSA of .810.

I think then there was enough of an interest in him that he was able to get away with it.

This time around, there will be little to no interest in him if he puts up another stinker of a year.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by redsfan30

I think then there was enough of an interest in him that he was able to get away with it.

This time around, there will be little to no interest in him if he puts up another stinker of a year.

If he puts up a below 5.00 ERA this summer, he'll have some teams willing to give him another contract. I just hope the Reds won't be one of them. The point I was making is that I have no confidence in his ability to have a "breakout" year. I'm expecting an ERA around 5.00 with 35-40 homers allowed and an OPSA of .800 or worse.

[Candy Cummings]

Is there any evidence players do better in their contract years? There might be, I'm just curious. It seems rational to an extent, but at the same time, how much impact can Eric Milton have on his performance if he doesn't have the stuff.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by Candy Cummings

Is there any evidence players do better in their contract years? There might be, I'm just curious. It seems rational to an extent, but at the same time, how much impact can Eric Milton have on his performance if he doesn't have the stuff.

In Milton's case, there is proof that he doesn't perform any better in a contract year. Of course, we only have one season to go on, 2004.

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by Ravenlord

i don't know what it is, but watching Lohse pitch, his fastball is very straigtht. he slows his leg motion down about a half-second when throwing his curve/slider, and his change is also very straight. i really just don't see it at all from the scouting standpoint on Lohse.

If you can see those things, big leaguers can see them, too.

That might explain why his K/9 dropped steadily from 2001 until 2005.

For someone with "great stuff", Lohse never really struck out hitters at an impressive rate. He was decent when he came to the majors, but has fallen into mediocrity at a steady rate.

[Puffy]

Originally Posted by Candy Cummings

Is there any evidence players do better in their contract years? There might be, I'm just curious. It seems rational to an extent, but at the same time, how much impact can Eric Milton have on his performance if he doesn't have the stuff.

No - there's none. A few people have career years in their contract year (Adrian Beltre, Jaret Wright) and now people think its a given and baseball players can just turn it up a notch in walk years.

[D-Man]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Clement was a good pitcher for a long time and a very good pitcher for a short time. Lohse has never been a good pitcher--only respectable in fits and starts; just like Tomko. That's a pretty important difference.

Clement had an ERA+ of 88 (i.e., a below average pitcher) from 1999-2001. And he pitched in two pitchers parks (SD and FLA). Not sure he would qualify as a "good pitcher for a long time" in my book.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/clemema01.shtml

Lohse's Career ERA+: 94
Clement's Career ERA+: 96 (and that includes his great years)

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by D-Man

Clement had an ERA+ of 88 (i.e., a below average pitcher) from 1999-2001. And he pitched in two pitchers parks (SD and FLA). Not sure he would qualify as a "good pitcher for a long time" in my book.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/clemema01.shtml

Lohse's Career ERA+: 94
Clement's Career ERA+: 96 (and that includes his great years)

Reducing players to ERA+ is pretty limiting, particularly when you're talking about a pitcher's career. Lohse has done nothing that even approaches Clement's good/very good Chicago seasons. And his stuff, K rate, OPSA don't portend a turnaround (particularly in GAB). Plus, he's not a very bright person, either, and that matters.

I think a better comparison to Lohse would be Jimmy Haynes.