Maximizing Potential in the Bullpen

[Red White]

I hope Jared Burton makes the Opening Day roster.

The Reds are not a team that should be conservative with their bullpen selections. Why make the safe play when you don't have obviously better talent than your competitors in other areas?

Not that many need to be reminded, but for the sake of discussion, the six, or more likely seven, relief pitchers will be chosen from among these eight:

Burton
Coffey
Bray
Weathers
Stanton
Cormier
Hermanson
Saarloos/Belisle (whomever is not the fifth starter, which I believe is now a two-man race)

At first glance Burton is the least safe choice and perhaps the odd man out. But I would argue that the Reds should take a chance on Burton's potential, at least initially.

No one middle-relief pitcher will make the difference of more than a couple of games, but (using round/average numbers to illustrate the point) if you estimate that your current bullpen has the makings of an eight to eighty-two win team, why not take a chance on a guy who, although he might put you in the seventy-eight to eighty win range, might also put you in the eighty-two to eighty-four win range?

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by Red White

I hope Jared Burton makes the Opening Day roster.

The Reds are not a team that should be conservative with their bullpen selections. Why make the safe play when you don't have obviously better talent than your competitors in other areas?

Not that many need to be reminded, but for the sake of discussion, the six, or more likely seven, relief pitchers will be chosen from among these eight:

Burton
Coffey
Bray
Weathers
Stanton
Cormier
Hermanson
Saarloos/Belisle (whomever is not the fifth starter, which I believe is now a two-man race)

At first glance Burton is the least safe choice and perhaps the odd man out. But I would argue that the Reds should take a chance on Burton's potential, at least initially.

No one middle-relief pitcher will make the difference of more than a couple of games, but (using round/average numbers to illustrate the point) if you estimate that your current bullpen has the makings of an eight to eighty-two win team, why not take a chance on a guy who, although he might put you in the seventy-eight to eighty win range, might also put you in the eighty-two to eighty-four win range?

I would agree about Burton, but any reliever blowing games adds up. With 24 Blown Saves last season, we need to improve in this area. If we could cut that number in half, we win this division.

[KoryMac5]

If the Reds want to maximize the pen's potential they would cut the fat from this aging piece of meat and go with some younger arms, i.e. Burton, Salmon, and Countlangus.

[Stingray]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

I would agree about Burton, but any reliever blowing games adds up. With 24 Blown Saves last season, we need to improve in this area. If we could cut that number in half, we win this division.

I'd keep Burton but wouldn't use him in save situations unless/until he proves he ready for the Bigs. Until then use him in mopup, etc to keep him until he can be optioned in '08(in that role he'd probably cost the Reds 0 wins this year). If he performs well so much the better. In either case, he'll make the organization better in '08 and beyond.

[TheWalls]

I like you list, except trade Cormier and keep Majik or Livingston.

[TheWalls]

Originally Posted by KoryMac5

If the Reds want to maximize the pen's potential they would cut the fat from this aging piece of meat and go with some younger arms, i.e. Burton, Salmon, and Countlangus.

This is EXACTLY what happens if the Reds aren't in it at the break. Most every bullpen arm over 35 goes and the pen goes to:

Bray, Coffey, Burton, Salmon, Coutlangus, Majik, and one veteran arm

along with starters

Harang, Arroyo, Lohse, Saarlos, Belisle.

This might hurt for a lost year, but if we're out of it, getting these guys some real ML experience would be a valuable investment.

[Red White]

Originally Posted by TheWalls

This is EXACTLY what happens if the Reds aren't in it at the break. Most every bullpen arm over 35 goes and the pen goes to:

Bray, Coffey, Burton, Salmon, Coutlangus, Majik, and one veteran arm

along with starters

Harang, Arroyo, Lohse, Saarlos, Belisle.

This might hurt for a lost year, but if we're out of it, getting these guys some real ML experience would be a valuable investment.

As a Rule 5 pick, if Burton doesn't make the Opening Day roster then he probably will not remain with the Reds.

[Dunner44]

Can the Reds please just get rid of Cormier? That would solve all the problems here.

[OnBaseMachine]

My pitching staff would look like this:

Starters:

Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Matt Belisle
Kyle Lohse
Kirk Saarloos

Relievers:

Todd Coffey, Bill Bray, Brad Salmon, Jared Burton, Jon Coutlangus, David Weathers.