Ouch....very ouch

[dsmith421]

Originally Posted by Always Red

I'm not totally sold on Krivsky's skills as a GM yet, but I have to disagree with you if you're implying that the astronomical cost of non-closer relief pitching is "in large part" his fault.

I think he set the marker out. When you look at previous offseasons it's easy to find closers getting huge deals--BJ Ryan comes to mind easily. But the Reds made the first "blockbuster" trade of the 2006 season and overpaid atrociously for an injured mediocrity and an unproven guy with upside. The trade was immediately panned all over baseball. Other clubs were able to acquire useful parts (Bob Wickman and, frankly, Eddie Guardado) come to mind without any serious outlay of resources.

Then, in the offseason, while other clubs (notably Atlanta) found ways to acquire high-upside relievers the Reds blew a major percentage of their budget on guys like Stanton and Weathers.

So from my perspective, although there have been a lot of clubs that have overpaid for relief pitching, the Reds have been the number one offender over the last nine months or so. The ridiculous market for relief pitching (if it, in fact, exists outside of Cincinnati) as as much Krivsky's fault as any other GM.

[harangatang]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Please dont bring up being close to the playoffs last year in comparison to us being close. We over acheived last year and the rest of the division sucked. Its not going to be that way again.

People just don't get it.

[OnBaseMachine]

The Reds are going to make this guy look foolish come October. That's just my opinion of course, but I just think the Reds are going to exceed all expectations this season and win at least 86 games, which could possibily put us in the playoffs. With big years from Dunn and Encarnacion, and the emergence of Josh Hamilton, I think the offense will be good enough. The 3-4-5 spots in the rotation will be shaky, but if Lohse steps up along with Saarloos and Belisle then the rotation could be solid. Bailey will be waiting at Louisbille if one of the starters falter.

I'm excited about this 2007 Cincinnati Reds ballclub.

[Always Red]

Jon Heyman, on SI.com today (go to page 2):

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...dnesday/1.html

Several teams are looking for relief help, among them the Red Sox, Marlins and Phillies, whose bullpen may prevent them from reaching what Jimmy Rollins sees as their first-place destiny. And it isn't going to be easy to find relievers. As one GM put it, "No one's pitching looks great. A lot of guys are getting the ... kicked out of them."

That in mind, it's going to be disappointing to hear that Padres reliever Scott Linebrink, who seems permanently on the block, is probably staying put in San Diego. And even Armando Benitez may remain in San Francisco, as well.

The Red Sox have been scouting Derrick Turnbow, Chad Cordero, Brad Lidge and Linebrink in a huge sellers' market for pitching. Boston and San Diego make a lot of trades, but it seems like the longer the Padres hold Linebrink, the more his value rises. And that's despite some so-so spring outings and whispers about past back pain.

The moral of this story is that maybe the Orioles were the smart ones by stockpiling relief pitchers. Chad Bradford for $10.5 million over three years looks like the steal of the winter right now.

The relief market is such that the ever erratic Jorge Julio is looking pretty attractive right now. Oh yes, the Diamondbacks' Julio is one we expect will be dealt.

If Chad Bradford (a middle reliever thus far in his career) is a bargain at $3.5 million a year, then just maybe the Reds are dealing from a position of relative strength in a very weak market, and can unload one or two of the "Crusty Boys" (per Natty Redlocks), inorder to recoup some of that $ spent on them, as well as make room for the younger, better guys like Salmon, Burton and Coutlangus? Cormier back to the Phils sounds like a good idea to me...

[vaticanplum]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

The Reds are going to make this guy look foolish come October. That's just my opinion of course, but I just think the Reds are going to exceed all expectations this season and win at least 86 games, which could possibily put us in the playoffs. With big years from Dunn and Encarnacion, and the emergence of Josh Hamilton, I think the offense will be good enough. The 3-4-5 spots in the rotation will be shaky, but if Lohse steps up along with Saarloos and Belisle then the rotation could be solid. Bailey will be waiting at Louisbille if one of the starters falter.

I'm excited about this 2007 Cincinnati Reds ballclub.

OBM, seriously, you are FREAKING me out.

[paintmered]

Originally Posted by vaticanplum

OBM, seriously, you are FREAKING me out.

He's no Debbie Downer any more.

[KronoRed]

Nope, but I have to wonder....pod people anyone?

[FlyingPig]

Pre season predictions mean nothing to me..

How many "experts" figured Detroit to be a World Series team last year?

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by vaticanplum

OBM, seriously, you are FREAKING me out.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by rdiersin

Did he overpay for talent? Probably, but the question is whether or not he overpayed with respect to the market, i.e. would those people have gotten similar deals elsewhere. I have a hard time believing in a world where Gil Meche got the contract he got, that those contracts were the ones driving up the prices on the market.

Gonzalez made 2.7 million last year with the Red Sox, so this year's salary is in line with that, and then it escalates. I find it to be a bit more than what I would like, but it seems reasonably along the lines of other contracts handed out.

I would've prefered to get players that have a shot at making a difference. There's no upside in Gonzo, Conine, Castro, and all the old relief pitchers. We just are crossing our fingers and hoping they are adequate for the length of their contracts, and it's not a very good bet, IMO.

Wayne had over 30 million to allocate this offseason, and the best acquision he made was Sarloos. That's a crime. When you have that much money to spend, it should be easy to add real talent. And I don't want to hear excuses. Other teams managed to add talent this past offseason in the same market.

[pedro]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

The Reds are going to make this guy look foolish come October. That's just my opinion of course, but I just think the Reds are going to exceed all expectations this season and win at least 86 games, which could possibily put us in the playoffs. With big years from Dunn and Encarnacion, and the emergence of Josh Hamilton, I think the offense will be good enough. The 3-4-5 spots in the rotation will be shaky, but if Lohse steps up along with Saarloos and Belisle then the rotation could be solid. Bailey will be waiting at Louisbille if one of the starters falter.

I'm excited about this 2007 Cincinnati Reds ballclub.

That's good to hear OBM. I think things are more pleasant too, which is enough for me right now, although I understand other POV's as well.

[Reds Fanatic]

Apparently no one at SI likes this Reds team. Their season preview is out. They pick the Reds last in the division and rank them 27th out of 30 teams. The only teams they rank lower are Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Washington. Maybe I am overly optimistic but that ranking is ridiculously low.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/bas...ews/index.html

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by Reds Fanatic

Apparently no one at SI likes this Reds team. Their season preview is out. They pick the Reds last in the division and rank them 27th out of 30 teams. The only teams they rank lower are Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Washington. Maybe I am overly optimistic but that ranking is ridiculously low.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/bas...ews/index.html

Now I'm sure he wasn't responsible for the 27th place ranking, but one interesting fact...did you see who wrote the Reds preview for SI...none other than long time baseball scribe Mr. Peter King!!! (Who does have history in Cincy of course FYI)

[Ltlabner]

I guess I'm in the same boat as a lot of you folks. I think we've improved from dreadfull to mearly mediocre. While that isn't very sexy it is most definatley an improvement.

Will we catch the luck of all the other teams trying to not win the division so we'll stay in the hunt with a mediocre record? Remains to be seen. For all the love and adulation they get, I don't think St Louis has really improved significantly. Houston has zero offense and rotation issues. The Brewers might remain a thorn in our sides, but not anybody elses. Pirates are what they are.

The Cubs are the big question. Will they get 1990 and Flordia Marlins Lou or the Seatle Lou who could do nothing with a bunch of tallent? Will all of that money spent translate into winning baseball or just a spectacular mess? Will Zambrano explode (mentally and/or physically). Will injuries decimate them again? If everything goes right they could end up being monsters. If things go the way they usually go for the Cubs people will be rediculing all the money they spent for years.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

I would've prefered to get players that have a shot at making a difference. There's no upside in Gonzo, Conine, Castro, and all the old relief pitchers. We just are crossing our fingers and hoping they are adequate for the length of their contracts, and it's not a very good bet, IMO.

Wayne had over 30 million to allocate this offseason, and the best acquision he made was Sarloos. That's a crime. When you have that much money to spend, it should be easy to add real talent. And I don't want to hear excuses. Other teams managed to add talent this past offseason in the same market.

This is such an incomplete analysis of the off-season, frankly. The only people who are down on the Gonzo acquisition seem to reside here at Redszone. If nothing else, his defense will make this team a better team. And I hear no one (other than here) suggest that he's not an upgrade in an area we were fairly weak - defense. Any offense from him is pure gravy.

Conine and Castro and the elder relievers to me are nothing more than chess pieces. They're here now, they may be gone before season's end. They give us cogs to work with - nothing more. Conine and Castro are back ups and we'll see how that plays out.

Saarloos the only worthwhile actions by WK? That overlooks both Rule 5 pickups, Hamilton and Burton. I think there's a good chance both make this club. And you cannot discount the extensions on both Harrang and Arroyo. Those go a long way towards making this club competitive for several years.

And the biggest thing Wayne's done is he hasn't sacrificed the future in making the club nominally competitive this year. We still have all of our core minor leaguers - that cannot be discounted, IMO.

I'm not all sunshine and roses on the Reds this year. I've repeatedly said that they're working on being generally competitive in '07, with an eye towards being very competitive in years to come. Will we win the division this year? Probably not, but it's a wild ride and I think we've got as much a chance as most of the rest of the division. Clearly things have to go right and click on all cylinders, but if they do, this club wins a fair amount of their games.