Kyle Lohse

[lollipopcurve]

If Kyle Lohse can build his trade value high enough the first half of the season, then he could draw interest from several teams. Get enough leverage in a negotiation, especially if a team believes their main division rival is on the other line, then they may be willing to bend and overpay slightly. Obviously Kyle Lohse won't bring in a Homer Bailey or Jay Bruce caliber prospect, but he could bring in one or more prospects who have a legitimate shot at contributing nicely at the major league level.

Now the compensation angle is interesting, but the Reds better beware. Given that the compensation pick standards have recently been toughened and that Lohse's 2006 overall numbers statistically were awful, I'm not sure his free agent classification level could net the Reds a high enough compensation pick that could match the type of return the Reds could acquire in a trade. This past offseason Lohse didn't even qualify as a Type C classification due to his awful 2006 season, and he would have to climb all the way into the top 40 percent to qualify as a Type B player in order to allow the Reds to collect a compensation pick. Unfortunately, Lohse's 2005 season was actually pretty decent, and his 2007 season will effectively replace his 2007 season in terms of his free agent classification.

I hate to say it, but Lohse's 2006 season was so bad that the chances of him climbing up to Type B classification are a bit iffy at this point. If he's not at least a Type B player, then the Reds won't even receive one pick.

Excellent points. Certainly argues for a relatively early determination on the Lohse front. If the team continues to flounder and falls double-digits back, they may be able to get some decent leverage in early trade talks. I'd settle for 1 very good prospect in return. Still, I hope they try to engage him in talks about a hometown deal for 3 years. I like Lohse better than most -- good stuff, young, durable. But I'm not optimistic it will happen.

[registerthis]

Originally Posted by AmarilloRed

Please lets drop all these false analogies to Jimmy Haynes that are total nonsense

They're only nonsense if you refuse to look at the numbers and see the parallels. Lohse may have better "stuff" than Haynes, but neither one was ever a very effective pitcher. haynes had his year in 2002 (which wasn't even that good of a year), and Lohse may or may not be having his now.

Prior to this year, we've had 5 full seasons to assess what Kyle Lohse brings to the table. It's not that great. I'm certainly not going to jump on the bandwagon to offer him a LT deal after one good month.

[membengal]

Atlanta remains short an arm...

[mth123]

I'm not a Lohse fan and I too think its a mirage, but...

if he was on the trade market he'd be the best pitcher out there. Teams are lining up for decent starting pitching and I think he'd bring a top prospect back and possibly another guy to take a flyer on. Remember in-season is different than off-season. Teams are trying to go for it, looking for a boost, and they don't have a free agent class full of pitchers to choose from in July.

As for the contract, many teams will see it as a blessing to acquire a guy for the rotation without having to take on a long term obligation. I think him being in his walk year makes him more desireable.

I like Membengal's Atlanta idea. Saltalamacchia (sp?) please. I agree with Flyer, do it now before he turns back into Kyle Lohse. 2007 was never a realistic possibility for post season play in Cincy IMO.

[Cedric]

When was the last time the Reds had a GM that sold high? It just doesn't happen. These guys have some pipe dream that they actually built a good team.

[The Snow Chief]

Originally Posted by mth123

I'm not a Lohse fan and I too think its a mirage, but...

if he was on the trade market he'd be the best pitcher out there. Teams are lining up for decent starting pitching and I think he'd bring a top prospect back and possibly another guy to take a flyer on. Remember in-season is different than off-season. Teams are trying to go for it, looking for a boost, and they don't have a free agent class full of pitchers to choose from in July.

As for the contract, many teams will see it as a blessing to acquire a guy for the rotation without having to take on a long term obligation. I think him being in his walk year makes him more desireable.

I like Membengal's Atlanta idea. Saltalamacchia (sp?) please. I agree with Flyer, do it now before he turns back into Kyle Lohse. 2007 was never a realistic possibility for post season play in Cincy IMO.

In my short time on this board, this is the best post I've seen.

[AmarilloRed]

We have been looking for quality starting pitchers for years. I saw Jimmy Haynes pitch back in the day. I have also seen Lohse pitch and the two are in no way comparable.Also, Lohse ' has had some good years in Minnesota, before they moved him to the bullpen. I think he is as quality a pitcher as Arroyo is, and he could help our team long-term. All I am asking is if he continues to pitch well into the summer months, we try to re-sign him. I would rather he pitch well for the Reds for a number of years, rather than for another team. I dont think it is a mirage,and he has given me no evidence that he is. We can always trade him in the summer if it becomes clear he will not re-sign. Krisky seems to re-sign starting pitchers who have proven themselves on the field.

[Patrick Bateman]

I'm a Lohse supporter, but I can't see any way that he can be mentioned in the same breath as Arroyo at this point.

[AmarilloRed]

If he continues to pitch this well all season, he should start being mentioned. I am not saying he is as good as Arroyo now; however, if he does it all year we should think about it.

[registerthis]

Originally Posted by AmarilloRed

If he continues to pitch this well all season, he should start being mentioned.

Repeat after me:

Sell high, sell high, sell high, sell high...

[lollipopcurve]

Sell high, sell high, sell high, sell high...

And replace Lohse with?

And then replace Milton with?

[membengal]

Dumatrait, Saarloos, Livingston, Bailey... whomever, doesn't matter, if you can turn Lohse into a top prospect, you do it without reservation. I guarantee you Billy Beane would be working overtime to do just that with a guy like Lohse, as Lohse approaches his free agent off-season and is focusing on getting to that pot of gold at the end of the free agent rainbow...

[registerthis]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

And replace Lohse with?

I'm not necessarily saying "trade him yesterday".

But I certainly don't advocate for a contract extension. If he manages to keep this up through July, move him then to a pennant contender. Let them (or some other team) shell out $10 million/year for his 4.75 ERA services.

[Stingray]

Try for a BA top 20 prospect plus a high ceiling A or low A guy(think EE) from a contender willing to overpay. The Reds aren't going to win this year, build for the 2009 window. Whatever you do DON'T go for a middling ML reliever.

HAVE A PLAN - GO FOR 2009.

[Marc D]

Originally Posted by mth123

I'm not a Lohse fan and I too think its a mirage, but...

if he was on the trade market he'd be the best pitcher out there. Teams are lining up for decent starting pitching and I think he'd bring a top prospect back and possibly another guy to take a flyer on. Remember in-season is different than off-season. Teams are trying to go for it, looking for a boost, and they don't have a free agent class full of pitchers to choose from in July.

As for the contract, many teams will see it as a blessing to acquire a guy for the rotation without having to take on a long term obligation. I think him being in his walk year makes him more desireable.

I like Membengal's Atlanta idea. Saltalamacchia (sp?) please. I agree with Flyer, do it now before he turns back into Kyle Lohse. 2007 was never a realistic possibility for post season play in Cincy IMO.

Here here, great post!

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

And replace Lohse with?

And then replace Milton with?

Who cares, this season is shot whats the difference on how far back you finish? sarloos can start, find another pitcher in house to be a stop gap in the starting rotation. we have plenty of in house filler to replace sarloos in the pen.

Originally Posted by Stingray

Try for a BA top 20 prospect plus a high ceiling A or low A guy(think EE) from a contender willing to overpay. The Reds aren't going to win this year, build for the 2009 window. Whatever you do DON'T go for a middling ML reliever.

HAVE A PLAN - GO FOR 2009.

I wish I could brand that to WK's forehead.