Managing ain't what it used to be

[Marc D]

I made the analogy to chasing in a game thread but it wasn't blackjack, it was poker. Chasing in poker is a much more accurate analogy than chasing in gambling imo.

When certain people hit a losing streak, they start making bad plays based on their gut that go completely against the all too well known odds (chasing). You often here phrases like "I'm due" or "I'm feeling lucky". They chase draws because they "feel" they'l get the card they need etc. It works in the short term every now and then, never in the long term

In baseball terms its putting a well known low OBP player like Gonzalez in an impact lineup spot while he's "hot" and hoping you'll be able to spot the trend quick enough when he cools off. If he takes an 0 for 5 on Tuesday has he cooled off or do you bat him 5th again? If he has another bad night how long untill you "know" he's cooled off? How many runs does it cost untill we find out? Then you move him and he goes 4 for 4, is he hot again? How long untill you "know"?

I believe you take your best players based mostly on OBP and hit them in the same spot for long periods of time letting the odds work in your favor. I have more faith in big numbers than JN's gut or clairvoyance.

That said, I agree with the SABR guys who say lineups don't really matter so its really a moot point from a production point of view. It does however, give insight into the mental makeup of our manager.

[RANDY IN INDY]

You are the one who chirped the magic "do the right things" phrase.

Yes, and sometimes, that just involves hitting the baseball solidly for hits, or driving in a run or two with men in scoring position. Doing the right things does not always involve the "small ball" theory that some of you roll out every time that you hear the phrase.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Yachtzee

Assuming guys hit in hot and cold cycles, by the time you realize someone has a "hot bat," he's already getting close to the high point in the cycle or else he has already started his decline back towards the mean.

Exactly. You're always chasing your tail with the "hot hand" approach. The idea should be to get ahead of the curve, not behind it.

[RANDY IN INDY]

Originally Posted by M2

Exactly. You're always chasing your tail with the "hot hand" approach. The idea should be to get ahead of the curve, not behind it.

While I agree with you to some degree, it hasn't seemed to hurt the Reds with the way they have used Gonzalez during his "hot" streak. Guys can look great in BP and look awful in the game. I don't know how you can really have the clairvoyance to tell who is going to get hot. There might be some indicators, such as hitting the ball solidly into hard luck outs, but with that said, that is pretty much the same indicator as a guy hitting the ball hard and getting 3 hits in a game. Still behind the curve. Maybe certain players have had past success against certain pitchers. Maybe some players can be used against a string of righthanders or lefthanders. There are just a whole lot of "maybe's" when trying to predict a hot streak.

If a team is getting consistent and solid production out of its regular batting order, I would not advocate moving a lower tier hitter into a higher role, but when you have struggled to score runs like the Reds have so far, I don't really see a problem with changing it up a little and riding the hot hand. As said before, it certainly hasn't hurt the Reds with the way they have rode Gonzalez during his streak.

[M2]

Originally Posted by RANDY IN CHAR NC

While I agree with you to some degree, it hasn't seemed to hurt the Reds with the way they have used Gonzalez during his "hot" streak. Guys can look great in BP and look awful in the game. I don't know how you can really have the clairvoyance to tell who is going to get hot.

Essentially you can't. That's why it generally makes more sense to understand your hitter's strengths and weaknesses over the long haul, to understand the matchups that present themselves in that particular game. Attempting to divine the "hot hand" on a consistent basis is a losing strategy, something that will undermine your lineup by causing you to put the wrong people in the wrong place.

As much as Gonzalez in the #5 slot has worked the past two days, I'll go back to what Yachtzee said earlier, does this mean we'll have to endure two weeks of him flailing in that spot before Narron remembers he's a #8 hitter at heart?

Very few managers have the Casey Stengel instinct to abandon something that's working before it peters out.

[RANDY IN INDY]

As much as Gonzalez in the #5 slot has worked the past two days, I'll go back to what Yachtzee said earlier, does this mean we'll have to endure two weeks of him flailing in that spot before Narron remembers he's a #8 hitter at heart?

I don't have the clairvoyance to know if Jerry will do that or not.

[GAC]

Originally Posted by M2

As much as Gonzalez in the #5 slot has worked the past two days, I'll go back to what Yachtzee said earlier, does this mean we'll have to endure two weeks of him flailing in that spot before Narron remembers he's a #8 hitter at heart?

As long as he keeps flailing away and putting up these numbers....led the NL with 13 hits and 26 total bases, while batting .520 (13-for-25) in the past six games. Right now, he's not hitting like a #8 hitter.

[RANDY IN INDY]

Doesn't matter.