Sunday 5-6 minor league updates

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

Considering Stubb's rawness, saying he "should" be murdering low A is probably a reach. He will need some adjustment. I would argue a good year in low A this year and a move into AA next year after beating around high A during the first 2 months of the season, would also be just as good.

Watson and Fisher both could stand to lower their h/9 some before they move up.

Watson's hit rate is under 8 per and Fishers is at 7.45 per. Fisher also is striking out 9 per 9 and Watson is striking out 11.8 per 9 innings.

I am with you on Stubbs.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I agree, CE. Both he and Watson are in Low A, not even High A. Though Watson has been lights out, I would like to see him move up a bit before penciling him into the '09 rotation. Not to take anything away from an unbelieveable start to '07.

It's like when a horse who's been running $50k purses drops down to a $5k claiming race. They should be performing well. No one could expect Watson to pitch even this well, but we are talking about 1st and 2nd round college picks playing with 19 year olds in many cases.

This is the third or fourth time you have said that.... and I have corrected you each time but you seem to miss it. Watson coming into today has faced 80% of guys that were as old or older than he is. Just 20% of the guys he sees are younger than he is, at least up to todays start.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Blue

I notice that someone said Francisco had an RBI single. Looking at the box score, it seems that he left the game after being hit by a pitch in his first at-bat, and the RBI single actually belonged to the guy who replaced him. Anyone know Francisco's status?

From the DDN

About the only bad news was third baseman Juan Francisco being taken out of the game after being hit by a pitch on his right hand. He is expected to be OK, but will have an X-ray taken today.

[membengal]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

This is the third or fourth time you have said that.... and I have corrected you each time but you seem to miss it. Watson coming into today has faced 80% of guys that were as old or older than he is. Just 20% of the guys he sees are younger than he is, at least up to todays start.

Bump.

Edabbs, he has indeed made this point repeatedly, and I am also curious to hear your response. Are you just regurgitating the "he's playing against younger competition" stuff because you think it without reference to the facts?

[Blue]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

From the DDN

Thanks for the update, dude.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

Considering Stubb's rawness, saying he "should" be murdering low A is probably a reach. He will need some adjustment. I would argue a good year in low A this year and a move into AA next year after beating around high A during the first 2 months of the season, would also be just as good.

Watson and Fisher both could stand to lower their h/9 some before they move up.

Why is it that Stubbs is a "Raw" college prospect, despite having played just over 200 games at UT with 792 AB's, but Valaika is not "Raw" even though he played in just over 120 games at UCSB with 521 AB's?

To me, it's ok if you like Stubbs as a player, but quit making excuses for his relative lack of production.

[texasdave]

I know it is early in the season but Jose A. Rojas is striking out 19.41 batters per nine innings.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

Why is it that Stubbs is a "Raw" college prospect, despite having played just over 200 games at UT with 792 AB's, but Valaika is not "Raw" even though he played in just over 120 games at UCSB with 521 AB's?

To me, it's ok if you like Stubbs as a player, but quit making excuses for his relative lack of production.

Because Stubbs has a lot of room to grow as a player, becuase he has some weaknesses in his game. He is considered 'raw'.
Valaika on the other hand is more of a 'polished' or 'close to finished' product, and while he doesn't have the upside that a Stubbs does, he may be a better hitter right now.

Its not about experience, it has to do with what they need to work on and fix.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Because Stubbs has a lot of room to grow as a player, becuase he has some weaknesses in his game. He is considered 'raw'.
Valaika on the other hand is more of a 'polished' or 'close to finished' product, and while he doesn't have the upside that a Stubbs does, he may be a better hitter right now.

Its not about experience, it has to do with what they need to work on and fix.

I'm sorry, but that is a silly argument. That's a JimBo 5 tool argument. And Valaika has a much bigger upside than Stubbs does, and it isn't even close. Not only is he a better hitter now, and likely in the future, he plays a tougher position.

And why does Stubbs have room to grow despite FAR MORE experience in college? Why isn't he MORE polished than Valaika? Is it physical tools? Mental tools?

Please put Stubbs in perspective. He was outhit in a hitters league by 4 of his teammates. BY A WIDE MARGIN. He's being out hit by two of his teammates now. NOT what I expect from a #1 pick.

He's had a nice week. It's jumped his OPS to almost .800, and yes, I do want him to be what you THINK he'll be. But he's had over 300 AB's as a professional now, and he's yet to crack .800 OPS. 1st Round guys selected from a major university like UT should be fast tracked. He should at least be in Sarasota right now, but I have to think he'd be getting crushed in the FSL at this point. Valaika OTOH would probably be doing fine.

I really, really want to be wrong about Stubbs.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by TRF

I'm sorry, but that is a silly argument. That's a JimBo 5 tool argument. And Valaika has a much bigger upside than Stubbs does, and it isn't even close. Not only is he a better hitter now, and likely in the future, he plays a tougher position.

You're right. It's not even close.

What makes Valaika even worth talking about is his certainty. Valaika has a good shot at making the majors, however his upside is limited. He's one of those guys that has solid tools accross the board, but doesn't have one that really sticks out. Plus he doesn't have the range to stick at SS. His days of playing a tougher position at any kind of high level will be coming to an end in the near future.

Stubbs is clearly further from the majors at this point and is riskier, but he has a far greater ceiling than Valaika. If he develops fully, he could be a 30+ homer guy with good plate discipline and world class fielding at a key position. It also helps that he has top flight speed. Potentially, he's the total package, and that cannot be seen through the stats.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

I'm sorry, but that is a silly argument. That's a JimBo 5 tool argument. And Valaika has a much bigger upside than Stubbs does, and it isn't even close. Not only is he a better hitter now, and likely in the future, he plays a tougher position.

Valaika will not play SS in the major leagues. It wont happen. Once he moves, Stubbs plays a more valuable position, and defensively he plays it great.

And why does Stubbs have room to grow despite FAR MORE experience in college? Why isn't he MORE polished than Valaika? Is it physical tools? Mental tools?

Experience isn't always what gets someone to the right spot. Sometimes you need good coaching. Not that Stubbs didn't get good coaching in college, but he may not have gotten the right coaching in college. Valaika right now is a better overall hitter than Stubbs is, no one will question that. Physical tools though, Stubbs has a lot more. Mentally.... I have no clue.

Please put Stubbs in perspective. He was outhit in a hitters league by 4 of his teammates. BY A WIDE MARGIN. He's being out hit by two of his teammates now. NOT what I expect from a #1 pick.

I hear this a lot, and frankly I don't care that much. He was hurt most of last season and he is hurt this season enough that he might need surgery after the season. Its also very early to be making assumptions that he is going to continue to be outhit by his teammates. Sure, I bet Valaika continues to outhit him, and I bet Francisco shows more power the rest of the way.... but outside of a bad 7 game stretch, Stubbs is hitting very well and its so early that a bad 7 game stretch really will hurt your numbers.

He's had a nice week. It's jumped his OPS to almost .800, and yes, I do want him to be what you THINK he'll be. But he's had over 300 AB's as a professional now, and he's yet to crack .800 OPS. 1st Round guys selected from a major university like UT should be fast tracked. He should at least be in Sarasota right now, but I have to think he'd be getting crushed in the FSL at this point. Valaika OTOH would probably be doing fine.

You are making assumptions that guys like that should be fast tracked. The Reds selected him knowing that they needed to take their time with him and work on his game. They took a risk on him. He is looking fine to me.

[rdiersin]

Originally Posted by TRF

Please put Stubbs in perspective.

Well, one thing we should look at is this.

Player		ISOP	ISOD	BABIP	SEC
Drew Stubbs	0.165	0.066	0.368	0.291
Chris Valaika	0.184	0.054	0.486	0.276
Justin Turner	0.067	0.073	0.357	0.191
Juan Francisco	0.267	0.045	0.333	0.324

Notice that Valaika only really has an edge in ISOP. I would venture to say that if Stubbs didn't have a turf toe injury, he would have a few more doubles, closing that gap. That part is complete conjecture on my part, but I think that it is reasonable. Francisco, up until now has shown some surprising power and leads Stubbs obviously in ISOP and SEC.

[dougdirt]

Francisco is actually leading the MWL in HR's as a 19 year old. Drew Stubbs is tied for 6th in the league in HRs.

[fargo55]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Havent heard anything about Loo.... maybe Fargo has heard something since he seems to be down there often.

Interestingly, no sign of Loo yet, and the guys say that there has been absolutely no talk about him. He presumably is still in Hawaii and since the end of April went with him still out, I'd guess that his career has moved to the uncertain classification.

[medford]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Valaika will not play SS in the major leagues. It wont happen. Once he moves, Stubbs plays a more valuable position, and defensively he plays it great.

I've only seen Valaika play one game, but its pretty obvious to my amatuer eye that he doesn't have the range to play SS, he's lacking for a Low A player, and I don't think his range can/will improve much as he gains experience. His future is likely at 2nd, though he might be put into a corner infield spot.