Reasons for optimism/pessimism for 2007.

[Wheelhouse]

Optimism:
1) The Reds have a rotation that make it conceivable to run off 10-12 wins in a row--we know the team has problems, but what this team has is the potential to go through the rotation 2+ times without tossing a real stinker. This has not been the case in the past, and the Reds ceiling has been 8-game, offense-driven winning streaks. Not that it will happen, but the Reds could have a run that puts them at the top fairly quickly.

2) The Reds could possibly have the best hitting outfield in the league: Junior seems poised to have a big year at the plate, Hamilton has become a force that teams have to change their game plans around, and Dunn has matured greatly as a hitter, along with making great strides on his D.

3) Bullpen: there are options, if not immediate ones in Majewski, Bray,Guardado, Burton. This is a change from the past.

4) Gonzalez seems to have more stick than was anticipated.

Pessimism:
1) It seems that there is a continuing problem with the baseball culture in the bullpen. I don't think Jerry has the type of personality to cut through it.

2) Bench lacks a viable home-run threat when Conine starts.

3) Encarnacion seems worse than last year--he doesn't seem to be making adjustments, and his fielding is just as bad as last year.

4) The six 10+ day road trips will not be easy.

[Screwball]

I agree with a lot of what you have to say, Wheel, but I have a couple questions/disagreements as well. For Optimism 1., are you including Eric Milton in the rotation that's capable of ripping of 10-12 consecutive wins? He's 0-4 with a 4.85 ERA. With a low K/9 (4.85) and K/BB (1.75), along with poor past performances, there isn't much reason to believe he could be part of a win streak. In fact, I think the opposing team might call him their stopper.

As for your Pessimism 2., did you forget about Valentin or just don't consider him a HR threat off the bench? All he did was lead the league in pinch-hit HRs last year.

[HokieRed]

Not sure I understand what the "baseball culture" of the bullpen is. Does that produce ERA's like Stanton's and Coffey's? Is it possible these guys just either don't have, or no longer have, the stuff necessary to get good hitters out? Is it possible the GM wasted a whole lot too much money on guys that, at best, are going to be marginally effective, particularly Cormier and Stanton (both once fine pitchers)? Did the GM pass on a possible closer--if not a starter--in last year's draft (Lincecum)?