From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis... - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

Wheelhouse · 05-08-2007, 03:48 PM

Bullpen usage

This is a good point from reader David Short, what do you guys think?

Starter goes 7 1/3 inning.
Reliever A comes in and gives up a walk to the only batter he faces.
Reliever B comes in. Gets an out and gives up a three run bomb. Gets
the next batter.
Reliever C finishes the game without a pinch hitter for B.

7 1/3 inning from the starter and 3 relievers to finish the last five
outs. By my count 2 other guys warmed up. It may have been more.

Reliever A has been used in 4 of the last 5 days.
Reliever B has been used the last 4 days in a row.

Not ONE of those switches was caused by a reliever getting tired or
being ineffective or by a pinch hitter coming in. (That's not saying
the relievers were effective, but that the switches were not caused by that.)

Check out the games appeared vs innings pitched for the reds
pen. This is before last nights game. Almost every single guy in the
pen is being used as a loogy, lefty one out guy. Nobody is averaging
an inning or more per appearance.

David Weathers 13 games 12 2/3 innings
Todd Coffey 18 games 15 2/3 innings
Kirk Saarloos 17 games 15 2/3 innings
Victor Santos 14 games 13 1/3 innings
Coutlangus 13 9 1/3
Cormier 6 3
Salmon 2 2 2/3
Burton 1 1/3

The only guy averaging an inning per appearance is Brad Salmon who
only has two appearances. These guys are pitching ALL the time. Even
when they don't appear in the game, they warm up. It's no wonder they
started the season strong and then started getting pounded. It's a
usage problem.

Compare and contrast with Tony LaRussa over in St. Louis. La Russa is
famous for micromanaging matchups and swapping relievers in and out.
Five guys in the St. Louis pen are averaging more than an inning an
outing, Thompson, Franklin, Hancock Jimninez and Dove. It's more
sustainable for the guys doing the throwing. They know when they'll
be in the game and their arms have time to heal when they aren't
being called on to throw every night.

93 innings from the Cardinal bullpen. 82 from the reds. 96 innings
out of the brewers relievers...3 of them with more innings than
appearances. mets have the best pen in the game right now..94
innings....four of their pitchers including the closer are regularly
going an inning or more every time out.

3 of the top 10 pitching appearance leaders are on the reds. With the
starting pitchers throwing as well as they have, it's inconcievable
that the reds have that many guys on the leaderboard for appearances.
It's not uncommon for the reds to get 7 innings from the starter, use
3 pitcher and have 6 guys warm up. You can't win like that. Guy's
arms will fall off.

It's maddening that the cincy press hasn't picked up on this. They
are following the party line that there is no talent in the bullpen
because there is no recognized stud closer. It wouldn't matter. you
could have Charlton, Dibble and Myers down there and WITH THIS USAGE
PATTERN, the bullpen would suck. All three of those guys averaged
well more than an inning per appearance in 90. Same with Williamson,
Graves and Sullivan in 99.

Till the usage pattern gets fixed, the reds will not be able to
establish any kind of bullpen success. Without a good bullpen, the
team can't succeed deep into the post season. Frankly, it's the
biggest organizational problem they have right now. You can swap the
names all you want. It won't matter.

It would be nice to have the guys carve out roles for themselves, but
look what happens when they do pitch well. Chris Hammond last year
was the one that made me sit up and take notice.

Look at his game log for 06.

He had a couple of bad outings early and pretty much got buried in
the pen. Then he started pitching better till he got to be Jerry's
"hot hand" through May and all of a sudden he was being called on
every night in June and...guess what, he fell apart unable to handle
the workload. By the 80th game of the season, he had appeared or
warmed up in more than half of them and he was ineffective and
released and "sucked."

If you carve out a role in this system you get overexposed, your arm
gets destroyed and suddenly...you're a no-talent ineffective bum.

Todd Coffey is the second verse same as the first. The guy CAN
pitch. He just can't pitch every night and be expected to be
effective. Longer outings less often. They won't get better till it happens.

Crosley68 · 05-08-2007, 04:21 PM

I have been biting my lip up until now.............but I agree with this. I have no confidence in Narron's ability to manage a bullpen.

Kc61 · 05-08-2007, 04:21 PM

Or, as I posted two days ago:

Team pitching stats and using the pen

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Reds overall have a 4.03 ERA, getting worse, ninth in NL, not terrible.

The Reds starters pitch 6.3 innings on average per game. Tied for best in league. Reds starters have 3.82 ERA, ninth in league, not terrible.

The bullpen, therefore, does not have tons of innings pitched. The starters pitch a lot of innings, therefore the pen pitches fewer.

However, it seems to me that for relatively few innings, the Reds relievers have a ton of relief appearances. I don't have the overall numbers. But

The major league individual high in relief appearances is 18. Consider the following numbers for the Reds:

Coffey 18
Saarloos 16
Stanton 15
Santos 14
Cout 13
Weathers 12

For a team with a lot of starter innings, these numbers seem quite high to me. Again, I don't know the overall relief appearance stats, but just flipping through other teams' numbers, these individual appearance stats seem quite high.

Just looking at the Reds pen, I don't think the individuals are as bad as they've pitched. The bullpen has the worst relief ERA in the league and, looking at the personnel, I have to wonder if overuse is contributing to the problem.

Also, using WHIP, a key stat for relievers, only two relievers' are badly out of line. Santos has a 1.73 WHIP, which is quite poor. Coffey's is 1.60, which is also poor, and has a big impact considering that he is used so much. (In Coffey's case, I wonder what his WHIP would be if used less often.)

Another stat -- the Reds pitching staff has a .99 GB/FB ratio. The most fly ball oriented pitching staff in the league. Since they play at GABP, this isn't too good.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last edited by Kc61 : 05-06-2007 at 02:51 PM.

top6 · 05-08-2007, 04:21 PM

i'm not sure this is right, but i don't care. narron should change the way he uses the bullpen immediately - it can't get worse.

Chip R · 05-08-2007, 04:23 PM

There's a discussion of the same topic on Reds Live

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=57668

Strikes Out Looking · 05-08-2007, 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by top6

i'm not sure this is right, but i don't care. narron should change the way he uses the bullpen immediately - it can't get worse.

And that's the question--can a leopard change his spots?

Matt700wlw · 05-08-2007, 04:26 PM

Marty last night:

"What's sad is, this bullpen may eventually get this manager fired."

reds44 · 05-08-2007, 04:34 PM

That's great analysis.

Just because a guy doesn't actually come in the game or pitch very long, doesn't mean he's not getting worn out by warming up every night, and coming in to pitch.

Narron looks at IP. He needs to pay attention to appearances, and how many times a guy warms up.

Falls City Beer · 05-08-2007, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by top6

i'm not sure this is right, but i don't care. narron should change the way he uses the bullpen immediately - it can't get worse.

I too think this is grasping at straws (changing the usage pattern), but I'm willing to give it a shot.

I might give the theory more credence if Jerry were to keep this pattern through the end of June and Coffey then started to blow up. Then I could say to myself, yeah, he's probably been reduced to a ragarm by this overusage.

However, I'm just not sure I can buy 15-16 innings of work plus the warm up tosses as being the cause of a tired or overworked arm.

I'm all for throwing crap at the wall (McBeth, Salmon, Medlock) and seeing what sticks; this season's in the crapper anyway. It's like getting June out of the way early this season!

Caveat Emperor · 05-08-2007, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

However, I'm just not sure I can buy 15-16 innings of work plus the warm up tosses as being the cause of a tired or overworked arm!

Yup. At this point in the year, everyone should be fresh enough to shoulder heavy workloads. Long term, it isn't good for anyone -- but this early in the season, arm fatigue shouldn't be hurting anyone's performances.

I'm more interested in why Todd Coffey has become completely ineffective this year as opposed to Narron this or Narron that.

Cyclone792 · 05-08-2007, 05:18 PM

I just thought I'd toss the following out there for anybody interested. People are free to draw up their own conclusions what this means and whether or not it relates to any of the information that dfs has posted here and on Trent's blog ...

2006 NL average IP per relief appearance = 1.05 innings

2006 Reds average IP per relief appearance = 0.99 innings
2007 Reds average IP per relief appearance = 0.82 innings

pedro · 05-08-2007, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

I just thought I'd toss the following out there for anybody interested. People are free to draw up their own conclusions what this means and whether or not it relates to any of the information that dfs has posted here and on Trent's blog ...

2006 NL average IP per relief appearance = 1.05 innings

2006 Reds average IP per relief appearance = 0.99 innings
2007 Reds average IP per relief appearance = 0.82 innings

I think it's a combination of the Reds crappy relief pitching and Narron's tendency to overmanage.

Cyclone792 · 05-08-2007, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pedro

I think it's a combination of the Reds crappy relief pitching and Narron's tendency to overmanage.

Innings pitched may be a bit deceptive though based upon the efficiency/success of a bullpen to retire batters and pick up outs. If a reliever cannot get outs, they'll be replaced before piling up any substantial innings pitched.

So with that, I'll take it a step further ...

2006 NL average batters faced per relief appearance = 4.57

2006 Reds average batters faced per relief appearance = 4.39
2007 Reds average batters faced per relief appearance = 3.61

Eric_Davis · 05-08-2007, 05:29 PM

Thought I'd post the Orioles and Braves:

Game...IP.....ERA

Baltimore

18....12.2.....2.13
17....13.1.....4.73
16....14.1.....5.02
15....15.1.....4.11
15....14.1.....3.77
6.......5.0.....1.08
3.......3.1.....5.40
2.......4.0....15.75
1.......2.0.....9.00

Atlanta

16....15.1....3.52
16....13.2....5.27
14....13.1....1.35
13....11.1....3.97
11.....9.0.....3.00
11....15.0....4.20
9......14.1....2.51
7.......3.2.....4.91
5.......3.0.....6.00

REDREAD · 05-08-2007, 05:32 PM

I guess Stanton was aware of Jerry's habits, since he got his option to vest based on appearances, vs innings pitched

Pretty cool that one of our own made the blog.. Don't let it go to your head, Dave

05-08-2007, 03:48 PM	#1
Wheelhouse Member Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: New York Posts: 2,849	From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis... Bullpen usage This is a good point from reader David Short, what do you guys think? Starter goes 7 1/3 inning. Reliever A comes in and gives up a walk to the only batter he faces. Reliever B comes in. Gets an out and gives up a three run bomb. Gets the next batter. Reliever C finishes the game without a pinch hitter for B. 7 1/3 inning from the starter and 3 relievers to finish the last five outs. By my count 2 other guys warmed up. It may have been more. Reliever A has been used in 4 of the last 5 days. Reliever B has been used the last 4 days in a row. Not ONE of those switches was caused by a reliever getting tired or being ineffective or by a pinch hitter coming in. (That's not saying the relievers were effective, but that the switches were not caused by that.) Check out the games appeared vs innings pitched for the reds pen. This is before last nights game. Almost every single guy in the pen is being used as a loogy, lefty one out guy. Nobody is averaging an inning or more per appearance. David Weathers 13 games 12 2/3 innings Todd Coffey 18 games 15 2/3 innings Kirk Saarloos 17 games 15 2/3 innings Victor Santos 14 games 13 1/3 innings Coutlangus 13 9 1/3 Cormier 6 3 Salmon 2 2 2/3 Burton 1 1/3 The only guy averaging an inning per appearance is Brad Salmon who only has two appearances. These guys are pitching ALL the time. Even when they don't appear in the game, they warm up. It's no wonder they started the season strong and then started getting pounded. It's a usage problem. Compare and contrast with Tony LaRussa over in St. Louis. La Russa is famous for micromanaging matchups and swapping relievers in and out. Five guys in the St. Louis pen are averaging more than an inning an outing, Thompson, Franklin, Hancock Jimninez and Dove. It's more sustainable for the guys doing the throwing. They know when they'll be in the game and their arms have time to heal when they aren't being called on to throw every night. 93 innings from the Cardinal bullpen. 82 from the reds. 96 innings out of the brewers relievers...3 of them with more innings than appearances. mets have the best pen in the game right now..94 innings....four of their pitchers including the closer are regularly going an inning or more every time out. 3 of the top 10 pitching appearance leaders are on the reds. With the starting pitchers throwing as well as they have, it's inconcievable that the reds have that many guys on the leaderboard for appearances. It's not uncommon for the reds to get 7 innings from the starter, use 3 pitcher and have 6 guys warm up. You can't win like that. Guy's arms will fall off. It's maddening that the cincy press hasn't picked up on this. They are following the party line that there is no talent in the bullpen because there is no recognized stud closer. It wouldn't matter. you could have Charlton, Dibble and Myers down there and WITH THIS USAGE PATTERN, the bullpen would suck. All three of those guys averaged well more than an inning per appearance in 90. Same with Williamson, Graves and Sullivan in 99. Till the usage pattern gets fixed, the reds will not be able to establish any kind of bullpen success. Without a good bullpen, the team can't succeed deep into the post season. Frankly, it's the biggest organizational problem they have right now. You can swap the names all you want. It won't matter. It would be nice to have the guys carve out roles for themselves, but look what happens when they do pitch well. Chris Hammond last year was the one that made me sit up and take notice. Look at his game log for 06. He had a couple of bad outings early and pretty much got buried in the pen. Then he started pitching better till he got to be Jerry's "hot hand" through May and all of a sudden he was being called on every night in June and...guess what, he fell apart unable to handle the workload. By the 80th game of the season, he had appeared or warmed up in more than half of them and he was ineffective and released and "sucked." If you carve out a role in this system you get overexposed, your arm gets destroyed and suddenly...you're a no-talent ineffective bum. Todd Coffey is the second verse same as the first. The guy CAN pitch. He just can't pitch every night and be expected to be effective. Longer outings less often. They won't get better till it happens. __________________ "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

05-08-2007, 04:21 PM	#2
Crosley68 Member Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: West Virginia Posts: 937	Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis... I have been biting my lip up until now.............but I agree with this. I have no confidence in Narron's ability to manage a bullpen. __________________ Let's play two!!!

05-08-2007, 04:21 PM	#3
Kc61 Member Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 10,838	Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis... Or, as I posted two days ago: Team pitching stats and using the pen -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Reds overall have a 4.03 ERA, getting worse, ninth in NL, not terrible. The Reds starters pitch 6.3 innings on average per game. Tied for best in league. Reds starters have 3.82 ERA, ninth in league, not terrible. The bullpen, therefore, does not have tons of innings pitched. The starters pitch a lot of innings, therefore the pen pitches fewer. However, it seems to me that for relatively few innings, the Reds relievers have a ton of relief appearances. I don't have the overall numbers. But The major league individual high in relief appearances is 18. Consider the following numbers for the Reds: Coffey 18 Saarloos 16 Stanton 15 Santos 14 Cout 13 Weathers 12 For a team with a lot of starter innings, these numbers seem quite high to me. Again, I don't know the overall relief appearance stats, but just flipping through other teams' numbers, these individual appearance stats seem quite high. Just looking at the Reds pen, I don't think the individuals are as bad as they've pitched. The bullpen has the worst relief ERA in the league and, looking at the personnel, I have to wonder if overuse is contributing to the problem. Also, using WHIP, a key stat for relievers, only two relievers' are badly out of line. Santos has a 1.73 WHIP, which is quite poor. Coffey's is 1.60, which is also poor, and has a big impact considering that he is used so much. (In Coffey's case, I wonder what his WHIP would be if used less often.) Another stat -- the Reds pitching staff has a .99 GB/FB ratio. The most fly ball oriented pitching staff in the league. Since they play at GABP, this isn't too good. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Last edited by Kc61 : 05-06-2007 at 02:51 PM.

05-08-2007, 04:21 PM	#4
top6 Member Join Date: May 2000 Location: cincinnati Posts: 1,637	Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis... i'm not sure this is right, but i don't care. narron should change the way he uses the bullpen immediately - it can't get worse.

05-08-2007, 04:23 PM	#5
Chip R Rally Onion! Join Date: May 2000 Location: Cincinnati, OH Posts: 33,224	Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis... There's a discussion of the same topic on Reds Live http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=57668 __________________ The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day. http://www.facebook.com/pages/Rally-...24872650873160

05-08-2007, 04:26 PM	#7
Matt700wlw Making sense of it all Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 26,131	Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis... Marty last night: "What's sad is, this bullpen may eventually get this manager fired." __________________ An excited shade of Red

05-08-2007, 05:18 PM	#11
Cyclone792 Playoffs Join Date: May 2005 Location: Cincinnati, OH Posts: 6,233	Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis... I just thought I'd toss the following out there for anybody interested. People are free to draw up their own conclusions what this means and whether or not it relates to any of the information that dfs has posted here and on Trent's blog ... 2006 NL average IP per relief appearance = 1.05 innings 2006 Reds average IP per relief appearance = 0.99 innings 2007 Reds average IP per relief appearance = 0.82 innings __________________ *Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012* *Put an end to the Lost Decade.*

05-08-2007, 05:29 PM	#14
Eric_Davis Member Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Portland, Or Posts: 5,041	Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis... Thought I'd post the Orioles and Braves: Game...IP.....ERA Baltimore 18....12.2.....2.13 17....13.1.....4.73 16....14.1.....5.02 15....15.1.....4.11 15....14.1.....3.77 6.......5.0.....1.08 3.......3.1.....5.40 2.......4.0....15.75 1.......2.0.....9.00 Atlanta 16....15.1....3.52 16....13.2....5.27 14....13.1....1.35 13....11.1....3.97 11.....9.0.....3.00 11....15.0....4.20 9......14.1....2.51 7.......3.2.....4.91 5.......3.0.....6.00 __________________ Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

05-08-2007, 05:32 PM	#15
REDREAD Where's my chair? Join Date: Apr 2000 Posts: 19,802	Re: From Trent's blog: VERY interesting bullpen analysis... I guess Stanton was aware of Jerry's habits, since he got his option to vest based on appearances, vs innings pitched Pretty cool that one of our own made the blog.. Don't let it go to your head, Dave __________________ Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2012 AND 2013! Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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