Anyone else feel this way?

[RedEye]

I've experienced losing Reds teams before. As a teen in the early 90s, I listened to every game during that season when Whitey Richardson and Scottie Madison were starting in the infield (thank god for Eric Davis and his 34 HR). I rooted for the John Smileys and Ropers of this world, honestly believing that they would anchor the pitching staff for years to come. I'm not that old, but I'm old enough to remember a time when it felt like there would always be competent bullpen pitching available to the Reds; those were the days when every day felt like a Milton day for starters.

But what I loved about the Reds then was that they always bounced back. Even when they had a losing season, I was pretty sure they would be in it again soon. If not this year, then next year. And at the very worst, the one following it.

There is no comparison between then and now. Those sporadic bouts of losing were like crushed puppy love, but this year feels more like symptoms of a prolonged midlife crisis. Mind you, I'm only 32 years old... so we're not just talking about my own subjectivity mapped onto my favorite ball team. I'm generally an optimistic fan, but I'm honestly starting to wonder if 1990 was the last time I will ever see a Reds team in the World Series.

Oh, aren't we supposed to be in a honeymoon period? For awhile I kept up hope, I believed it was right around the corner. With the promise of 1999 fresh in our minds, something big was brewing in the early '00s. We traded for Cincy's most famous baseball son, then flanked him with bookend 21 year-old OFs who could mash the ball. A new core was building just in time for a new stadium, a new owner, and a new GM. With each of these new arrivals, I kept telling myself, "Now is the time! The wait is over!"

What happened?

Suddenly we find ourselves looking down at only two or three ML cities. The problems with this team and its front office seem to be so deep-seeded, so starkly dysfunctional, that we haven't quite been able to wrap our heads around just how bad they are yet.

Honestly, if it weren't for the Golden Child playing the outfield, I think I'd be in the middle of a full-fledged existential crisis as a Reds fan.

Or perhaps I'm already there.

Is anyone else with me?

[remdog]

Well, from someone that is roughly twice your age, let me say I understand your wonder if you will ever experience the Reds in a WS again.

But, everytime I get that discouraging thought I drag myself out of it by thinking about teams like the Marlins or D'backs that made it there. Teams that came around within a few short years and with a few shrewd moves.

I certainly disagree with the moves/direction this team is going in at this time. But, I'm hopeful that Castellini was serious about wanting to win now. Maybe he won't pull the plug on an obvious losing stratagey (or maybe he won't even recongnize a losing approach) but I'm trying not to panic for awhile yet.

Rem

[WMR]

This team is poorly constructed and, to be blunt, downright sucks.

M2 had an interesting quote: "sometimes you catch your pythag, sometimes your pythag catches you."

[kyred14]

Hey, at least you can remember a Reds WS. I was only 4 in 1990. I don't even have many memories of 1995, so I haven't really seen the Reds in the playoffs.

It gets more and more hopeless every year.

[WVRedsFan]

Originally Posted by remdog

Well, from someone that is roughly twice your age, let me say I understand your wonder if you will ever experience the Reds in a WS again.

But, everytime I get that discouraging thought I drag myself out of it by thinking about teams like the Marlins or D'backs that made it there. Teams that came around within a few short years and with a few shrewd moves.

I certainly disagree with the moves/direction this team is going in at this time. But, I'm hopeful that Castellini was serious about wanting to win now. Maybe he won't pull the plug on an obvious losing stratagey (or maybe he won't even recongnize a losing approach) but I'm trying not to panic for awhile yet.

Rem

Rem and others:

When you see this team or any team self-destruct as we did today, you have to wonder if there will ever be a sunny day where everything goes right and the good guys prevail. You get behind 3-1 and then the much criticized 37-year old sure Hall of Famer goes yard and puts you up 5-3. A poorly constructed lineup doesn't score again. You knew you were in trouble with a rookie on the mound. You had to score more, but with the likes of Jeff Conine and Juan Castro in the lineup and Dunn nowhere to be seen and Edwin Encarnacion somehwere in Kentucky, it wasn't going to happen.

Enter Todd Coffey, he of the sure hit or run per inning and it was hopeless. Sooner or later. The Dodgers kept hitting those bloops and Narron, in a typical lack of judgment, allowed the Dodgers free rein on the bases, The result was a lot of runs and runaway win for the bad guys. Then you get the feeling that all is lost.

For some unexplained reason, Castellini put all his eggs in the Krivsky basket--you know, the one that values veteran players (read cheap) and retread pitching (with the exception of Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang). It also includes Jerry Narron, who is apparently on the same page as WayneK. Thus, you get an octigarian first base and Juan Castro as your choice to start ahead of more competent infielders. A mess that can only be rectified by a complete un-doing of what is now the club we know. While we sit and watch, this team is self-destructing on a straight line to 100 losses while Robert Castellini still wants to win and with all his eggs in that basket, cannot.

The answer? RobertC has to make better decisions. His GM, a rookie learning on the job, does not have the answer. His answers have been to keep a less than winning manager, a roster filled with lefty batters, and a bullpen that is simply too easy to hit.

Hopeless? No. Likely to rebound? No. How is this different from the Bowden and O'Brien eras that Castellini swore to change? Not one bit.

It's hard to believe your are twice the age of RE, but in my 50's, I'm getting close. Don't tell me you want to win if you don't. And if you do, change things. Don't give me the bull. Tell me that it's not going to change. For now, he's blown smoke to us. And hope is a distant memory. That's how I feel.

[PuffyPig]

Well, as bad as things are, I believe we are in better shape than we were before last year. At that time, we had few players that seemed to be able to count on 2-3 years down the road.

Now, we have a harang/Arroyo punch locked up for 5 years, with bailey on the horizon, and Belisle pitching well. That's 80% of a rotation.

We now have Hamilton and Phillips filling up 2 of the 4 skill postions, when previously we had none with a real future.

Our best propects are stuill producing pretty well in the minors, and are rated higher now than they were a few years back.

Things may not look so good right now, but I think they look better than they at Spring training 2006.

[smith288]

Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS

This team is poorly constructed and, to be blunt, downright sucks.

M2 had an interesting quote: "sometimes you catch your pythag, sometimes your pythag catches you."

Excuse my ignorance, but what the flip is a pythag?

[texasdave]

Originally Posted by smith288

Excuse my ignorance, but what the flip is a pythag?

What is pythagorean winning percentage?

Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. It is calculated by


(Runs Scored)^1.83
---------------------------------------------------------
(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83

The traditional formula uses an exponent of two, but this has proven to be a little more accurate.

[pedro]

and the Reds should be 19-19 according to their Runs Scored / Runs Allowed.

All that good luck that made them appear better than they were the last couple of years is catching up to them this year, when, ironically enough, many of us thought they were better than they are.

If they continue to under perform like this then someone will have to be held accountable. Most likely someone named Jerry.

[VR]

Originally Posted by pedro

If they continue to under perform like this then someone will have to be held accountable. Most likely someone named Jerry.

And there you have it. Too much talent to have the record they have.

[vaticanplum]

Originally Posted by RedEye

I've experienced losing Reds teams before. As a teen in the early 90s, I listened to every game during that season when Whitey Richardson and Scottie Madison were starting in the infield (thank god for Eric Davis and his 34 HR). I rooted for the John Smileys and Ropers of this world, honestly believing that they would anchor the pitching staff for years to come. I'm not that old, but I'm old enough to remember a time when it felt like there would always be competent bullpen pitching available to the Reds; those were the days when every day felt like a Milton day for starters.

But what I loved about the Reds then was that they always bounced back. Even when they had a losing season, I was pretty sure they would be in it again soon. If not this year, then next year. And at the very worst, the one following it.

There is no comparison between then and now. Those sporadic bouts of losing were like crushed puppy love, but this year feels more like symptoms of a prolonged midlife crisis. Mind you, I'm only 32 years old... so we're not just talking about my own subjectivity mapped onto my favorite ball team. I'm generally an optimistic fan, but I'm honestly starting to wonder if 1990 was the last time I will ever see a Reds team in the World Series.

Oh, aren't we supposed to be in a honeymoon period? For awhile I kept up hope, I believed it was right around the corner. With the promise of 1999 fresh in our minds, something big was brewing in the early '00s. We traded for Cincy's most famous baseball son, then flanked him with bookend 21 year-old OFs who could mash the ball. A new core was building just in time for a new stadium, a new owner, and a new GM. With each of these new arrivals, I kept telling myself, "Now is the time! The wait is over!"

What happened?

Suddenly we find ourselves looking down at only two or three ML cities. The problems with this team and its front office seem to be so deep-seeded, so starkly dysfunctional, that we haven't quite been able to wrap our heads around just how bad they are yet.

Honestly, if it weren't for the Golden Child playing the outfield, I think I'd be in the middle of a full-fledged existential crisis as a Reds fan.

Or perhaps I'm already there.

Is anyone else with me?

I am. I wish I could say, buck up kiddo and get some perspective, but I can't. Factually speaking, there's no reason not to have hope for this team; I believe in my head they will improve from where they are. But I think the past several years have trained us to brace ourselves in a certain way, to protect ourselves from what is seemingly becoming inevitable disappointment, and those past several years have stretched out much longer than a mere slump. And the longer they stretch out, the harder it is to bounce back.

I have actually made a conscious effort to pull myself back from baseball a bit this year. I just keep getting too wrapped up emotionally in both my teams and they both keep getting my hopes up and then letting them drop. It's taking me longer to bounce back at the end of each season than it should, and I'm certainly at an age when it should be getting easier. You say the Reds should be past their bad behavior...I should be past my bad behavior. This is not the most important thing in the world and I shouldn't get angry at a baseball team. So I have withdrawn a little bit, on purpose. That's just what I think you have to do sometimes, in various areas of your life at various times. But, you know, it's always something, baseball or a song or a book or a boy or some stupid mangy dog on the street, it's always freaking something breaking your heart. And you never learn, you always come back to one of them or the other even if you're supposed to be doing the smart thing and ignoring all of them. Life is ridiculous.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by RedEye

I've experienced losing Reds teams before. As a teen in the early 90s, I listened to every game during that season when Whitey Richardson and Scottie Madison were starting in the infield (thank god for Eric Davis and his 34 HR). I rooted for the John Smileys and Ropers of this world, honestly believing that they would anchor the pitching staff for years to come. I'm not that old, but I'm old enough to remember a time when it felt like there would always be competent bullpen pitching available to the Reds; those were the days when every day felt like a Milton day for starters.

But what I loved about the Reds then was that they always bounced back. Even when they had a losing season, I was pretty sure they would be in it again soon. If not this year, then next year. And at the very worst, the one following it.

There is no comparison between then and now. Those sporadic bouts of losing were like crushed puppy love, but this year feels more like symptoms of a prolonged midlife crisis. Mind you, I'm only 32 years old... so we're not just talking about my own subjectivity mapped onto my favorite ball team. I'm generally an optimistic fan, but I'm honestly starting to wonder if 1990 was the last time I will ever see a Reds team in the World Series.

Oh, aren't we supposed to be in a honeymoon period? For awhile I kept up hope, I believed it was right around the corner. With the promise of 1999 fresh in our minds, something big was brewing in the early '00s. We traded for Cincy's most famous baseball son, then flanked him with bookend 21 year-old OFs who could mash the ball. A new core was building just in time for a new stadium, a new owner, and a new GM. With each of these new arrivals, I kept telling myself, "Now is the time! The wait is over!"

What happened?

Suddenly we find ourselves looking down at only two or three ML cities. The problems with this team and its front office seem to be so deep-seeded, so starkly dysfunctional, that we haven't quite been able to wrap our heads around just how bad they are yet.

Honestly, if it weren't for the Golden Child playing the outfield, I think I'd be in the middle of a full-fledged existential crisis as a Reds fan.

Or perhaps I'm already there.

Is anyone else with me?

I agree. I'm old enough to remember 82/83, but this team, this FO, and especially, the ferocious competitiveness of the league, make me feel that there is NO WAY that they can succeed.

Even when they sucked terribly in 82/83, it still felt like there was an infrastructure there, that somehow, even if the FO couldn't pull the right strings, that the competence that carried the overall organization through the entire decade of the 70s plus the farm system would swoop down and rescue the fans.

Right now, it just feels like the team is completely adrift: at several removes from success by several owners/GMs; a farm system that is STILL more bark than bite; a GM that is (barely) learning on the job; an owner cut out of the same mold as the previous awful owner, Carl Lindner.

I think most fans on this site see the Reds as CLEARLY head and shoulders above the Royals and the Pirates. I'm afraid I can't share in that confidence. I think the Reds operate on the very same infrastructural model with the same institutional thinking as the Royals and Pirates: draft (usually poorly) and cross your fingers; overspend on middling talent to fill in the gaps.

After this offseason, I've never felt more hopeless as a Reds' fan.

[Ron Madden]

Someday we will look back at this team and laugh.

It's not funny right now.

[ddrone]

You know, I got used to the Reds losing all these last years. I kind of got numbed by it, you know? Always looking at the bright spot, forgetting that we were in the bottom of the Standings.
Then Big Bob bought the team. Promised me a winner. Said winning baseball was coming back to Cincinnati.
Last year I kind of blow off, said that Wayne and Bob only had a spring to set up THERE KINDA TEAM. Then the off-season . nothing to note.
Now this. A horrible team. I guess that’s why I am more frustrated and annoyed by the 2007 season so far. Big Bob promised me a winner. PROMISED!
While I don’t want to trade off some of our talent in the minors, which I believe is better then a long time, I want a winning team. Just like BOB PROMISED!

[IslandRed]

I'm probably less disgruntled than most because I didn't expect the mess Krivsky inherited to be fixed by now.

I think a big factor here is Castellini. This is just conjecture here, but while he came in talking about trying to win and restoring the glory and all that, he probably understood the enormity of the task at hand. He wouldn't have hired a GM from a "slow and steady improvement, build through the farm system" team if he was dead-set on a quick fix. He didn't go Tom Hicks on the payroll, spending money the team hadn't made, pursuing a quick fix. But secretly, you know he didn't want to wait... and suddenly, around midseason last year, it looked like he wouldn't have to. Suddenly, it was "go for it! go for it!" and Krivsky and the Reds started sprouting leaks.

The mixed message continued this offseason. M2 addressed this in another thread -- there was neither a commitment to a youth movement (with the implicit statement of "not this year") nor a big bump in the payroll (with the implicit statement of "now"). I think ownership had a hand in that also. Castellini really, really doesn't want to tear down and rebuild and be accused of being just like Lindner. He didn't buy the team for that. But he's not into losing money, either.

Now, this is not to excuse Krivsky for any of his poor decisions, just to point out that he doesn't get to unilaterally decide the team's direction.

As for Krivsky himself, as I've said before, he could not possibly have taken over an organization farther from where he wanted to go. He believes in pitching and defense and a strong player-development system and a stable organization; he got an organization with a few sluggers and one good MLB-level pitcher and a couple of good prospects not old enough to buy beer and a bunch of dysfunctional employees. He's made some questionable if not terribly expensive decisions on contracts, and he hasn't shown the ability to build a bullpen. On the plus side, he's snagged some real talent for the MLB club, the player development system appears to actually be developing players, there are a lot fewer square pegs being slammed into round holes, and the starting rotation has gone from historically bad to NL-average in barely over a year, which is no small feat.

I don't know if he can get it done or not. Truth is, I like most of what he's done that doesn't involve the bullpen. Set that aside for a moment, and the organization as a whole is in much better shape than when he got here, in my opinion. But he has to fix that blind spot or eventually it will cost him his job.