Which Approach Works Best ?

[Ltlabner]

From the book, "The Book on the Book". Bill Felber. Pgs 139-154.

They wanted to study how GM's spent the payroll and the effects on winning baseball games.

All teams 1999-2004. 
Asset Allocation				Avg Games 		Number of 	Number of 
Focus 			Avg Winning Percentage 	From expct wins 	teams 		Playoff teams
_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Rotation-Pitching Combo 	.540		+ 7.2			18		7
(Combined payroll of 5 starters exceeds 34.5%, combined payroll of all pitchers 
exceeds 49% of payroll) 


Balanced Teams 			.509		+.6			48		17
(Payroll for each of the groups outlined above fits within one standard deviation
of the average) 


Pitching (not rotation) 	.508 		-.4			9		2
(Combined payroll of all pichers exceeds 49% of payroll, but combined payroll
of rotation starters does not exceed 34.5%) 


Rotation only 			.501		-.8			11		5
(Combined payroll of expected 5 starters exceeds 34.5% of payroll, but combined 
payroll of all pitchers does not exceed 49%)  


Borrowers 			.496		-1.2			44		9
(Teams that are no about the ceilings listed above, but fall below 1 standard deviation
from the average in one or more areas so they are not ballanced) 


Middle defense 			.489		-2.4			23		5
(Combined payroll of middle defenders exceeds 28.5% of team payroll)


Heart of order 			.460		-2.8			26		2
(Combined payroll of 3-4-5 hitters exceeds 39% of team payroll) 


Single Star teams		.457 		-4.5 			19		1
(Highest paid player exceeds 23% of team payroll)

I'd say the reds have spent a lot of money building either a Single Star, Heart of Order or currently a Middle Defense style teams (although I drifted away from baseball for a while so I can't remember much about the 1999-2003 teams).

Interestingly, those are the three least effective uses of money (at least historically).

Seems to me this is saying that you either spend all your money on pitching (either starters, bullpen or both) or you ballance it out. Focus soley on offense or defense at your own risk.

Thoughts? Comments? Agree? Dissagree?

[PickOff]

Can the single star be a pitcher?

[OldRightHander]

It seems to support what we've known all along, that if you can only afford to spend in one area, pitching seems to be a good area to focus on.

[OldRightHander]

Originally Posted by PickOff

Can the single star be a pitcher?

It could, but what if everyone around him still stinks? Then you're left with the bad teams Soto was on.

[Stingray]

To be meaningful you'd have to know how the payroll of the teams involved compared to the average team payroll in a given year. My guess is that payroll size probably has the stongest coorelation with wins.

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by Stingray

To be meaningful you'd have to know how the payroll of the teams involved compared to the average team payroll in a given year. My guess is that payroll size probably has the stongest coorelation with wins.

For example, in the time period given, 18 teams fit the "rotation plus pitching" defintion with the allocation of their payroll. 7 made the playoffs. Teams in bold font are the ones that made the playoffs. This list is by year, so you'll see repeats.

Arizona Dbacks
Florda Marlins
Oakland As
Toronto
Arizone
Marlins
Oakland
Arizona Dbacks
Colorado Rockies
Minnesota Twins
Arizona Dbacks
Minnesota Twins
St Louis Cardinnals
Dbacks
LA Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
Atlanta Braves
Texas Rangers

[D-Man]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

currently a Middle Defense style teams

Huh??

Remember, this is a Middle Defense that features Hamilton ($380k), Phillips ($407k), Ross ($1.6M), and Gonzalez ($3.5M). Those salaries comprise a small subset of the $69M payroll. I'm not sure what methodology and data you (or the book) are using, but I used the salaries from ESPN.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/salaries?team=cin

My conclusion is that the 2007 Reds are pretty close to being a starter-pitching combo (34% and 46% respectively), but they are probably "Borrowers", which is what most teams probably are. They would tend to lean more toward the pitching side of the equation. . . Although I can't definitively say, because I haven't read the book.

2007 Reds Salary Breakdown (by D-Man's count):
Heart of Order: 28%
Starting Pitching: 34%
Relievers: 13%
Middle Infielders: 10%

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by D-Man

Huh??

Remember, this is a Middle Defense that features Hamilton ($380k), Phillips ($407k), Ross ($1.6M), and Gonzalez ($3.5M). Those salaries comprise a small subset of the $69M payroll. I'm not sure what methodology and data you (or the book) are using, but I used the salaries from ESPN.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/salaries?team=cin

My conclusion is that the 2007 Reds are pretty close to being a starter-pitching combo (34% and 46% respectively), but they are probably "Borrowers", which is what most teams probably are. They would tend to lean more toward the pitching side of the equation. . . Although I can't definitively say, because I haven't read the book.

2007 Reds Salary Breakdown (by D-Man's count):
Heart of Order: 28%
Starting Pitching: 34%
Relievers: 13%
Middle Infielders: 10%

You are exactly right . In haste I threw out the 'middle infielders bit thinking about Waynes push to improve D in that area, not the allocation of payroll.

Thanks for looking up the payroll numbers. That was my next task for tonight to continue to flesh this topic out.