Looking back at Krivsky 2006 draft

[icehole3]

Since the Reds draft in a few weeks I just wanted to post a quick review of last years draft. Just a phenominal first year IMO. O Brien had some pretty good drafts (Bailey, Bruce) Krivsky clearly raised the bar though. Just looking at Dayton stats and just about every draft pick on that team is clearly a legit hitting prospect even down to kids like Phipps and Heisley. Then the top 4 pitching prospects have unreal WHIPs.

Jordan Smith 0.95
Sean Watson 0.98
Rafael Gonzalez 1.11
Travis Webb 0.99

Someone mentioned in another thread that Turner has passed Valaika, Turner IMO was the guy I felt was going to be the leader of this bunch because of his outstanding leadership. I also felt that after watching Stubbs and Turner both clearly the leaders of their college teams and leading their teams into the college world series (Turner taking his team to the final 4) that they would (despite the criticism of a few on why we drafted Stubbs) be solid blue chip prospects. Basically all Im saying is Krivsky deserves a lot of credit for putting a A+ draft together in 2006.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=cin
2006 Draft Picks
Robert A Stubbs
Sean D Watson
Christopher A Valaika
Justin J Reed
Joshua J Ravin
Jordan Smith
Justin M Turner
Travis S Webb
Jeremy Burchett
Joshua J Roenicke
Brandon S Rice
Logan Parker
Kevin Gunter
Carson Kainer
Rafael Sanchez
Jamie L Arneson
Chris J Heisey
Derrik L Lutz
Eddy Rodriguez
Christopher M White
Adam T Pointer
Tony B Brown
Anthony P Esquer
Michael L Mckennon
Anthony Gressick
Keltavious A Jones
Tyler S Hauschild
Jason Louwsma
Ronald L Tabor
Eric B Schaler
Daniel C Dorn
Justin D Curry
Benjamin Ihde
John P Touchton
Nicholas D Wandless

[edabbs44]

Those pitchers look great until you realize that they are college guys playing in low A. They are, at this point, where you would hope they'd be. If they weren't pitching well then you'd be worried.

Btw, Gonzalez was an O'Brien draft pick.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Those pitchers look great until you realize that they are college guys playing in low A. They are, at this point, where you would hope they'd be. If they weren't pitching well then you'd be worried.

And yet most of the guys that they play against are more college kids.

[Blue]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

And yet most of the guys that they play against are more college kids.

Am I crazy, or have you made that observation before?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Blue

Am I crazy, or have you made that observation before?

You my friend are actually NOT crazy. I have made that observation several times.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

And yet most of the guys that they play against are more college kids.

I know I'm making a big generalization here, but...if a college kid is in low A ball for any extended period of time, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that they are up against the odds of making an impact during their careers.

Looking at Dayton's opponent today (Clinton Lumberkings), 8 of the 13 position players on their roster are over the age of 21. They are:

David Peterson: .657 OPS
Mauro Gomez: .546 OPS
Jay Heafner: .537 OPS
Grant Gerrard: .586 OPS
Craig Gentry: .703 OPS
Wally Backman III: .577 OPS
KC Herren: 1.012 OPS
Chad Tracy: .795 OPS

Not exactly Murderer's Row. There's a reason why these guys are where they are. I know it's only one team and I know that there are probably some better college guys in Low A than these guys (i.e., Stubbs), but I'm not going to get all giddy about college guys pitching really well in Low A and deeming WK a mastermind because of this.

By the way...Zach Ward was a 22 year old in Dayton last season. 7-0, 2.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Dealt at the deadline for good ol' Kyle Lohse. Seems to be pitching pretty well in High A for Minny right now. He was moved to a relief role. 2.70 ERA.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I know I'm making a big generalization here, but...if a college kid is in low A ball for any extended period of time, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that they are up against the odds of making an impact during their careers.

Looking at Dayton's opponent today (Clinton Lumberkings), 8 of the 13 position players on their roster are over the age of 21. They are:

David Peterson: .657 OPS
Mauro Gomez: .546 OPS
Jay Heafner: .537 OPS
Grant Gerrard: .586 OPS
Craig Gentry: .703 OPS
Wally Backman III: .577 OPS
KC Herren: 1.012 OPS
Chad Tracy: .795 OPS

Not exactly Murderer's Row. There's a reason why these guys are where they are. I know it's only one team and I know that there are probably some better college guys in Low A than these guys (i.e., Stubbs), but I'm not going to get all giddy about college guys pitching really well in Low A and deeming WK a mastermind because of this.

By the way...Zach Ward was a 22 year old in Dayton last season. 7-0, 2.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Dealt at the deadline for good ol' Kyle Lohse. Seems to be pitching pretty well in High A for Minny right now. He was moved to a relief role. 2.70 ERA.

I think its just silly to be down on someone because they are succeeding against the competition they are playing against when they simply have no control over who they play against. They are told where they will play, and they have no choice over it. Its not as if they are playing against a bunch of 18 and 19 year olds.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I think its just silly to be down on someone because they are succeeding against the competition they are playing against when they simply have no control over who they play against. They are told where they will play, and they have no choice over it. Its not as if they are playing against a bunch of 18 and 19 year olds.

I'm not down on any of those pitchers. But I'm also not saying that the '06 draft was a huge success based on the performances of these pitchers.

The argument about them having no control overwhere they play has limited to no merit. We're not judging the character of these players...we are trying to evaluate the future of these guys. Just because they have no control over where they play doesn't make them any more of a prospect.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I'm not down on any of those pitchers. But I'm also not saying that the '06 draft was a huge success based on the performances of these pitchers.

The argument about them having no control overwhere they play has limited to no merit. We're not judging the character of these players...we are trying to evaluate the future of these guys. Just because they have no control over where they play doesn't make them any more of a prospect.

It doesn't make them any less of a prospect either though, which is the point I was trying to make. Take Jay Bruce for example, last year somehow Andrew McCutchen vaulted over him toward the end of the year because he had 2 good weeks in a AA callup. Of course now McCutchen isnt hitting .200 in AA and Jay Bruce is doing things at historic levels in the FSL. No one is going to say that the 2006 draft is a success this early, but it is showing signs of being good.

[icehole3]

Maybe I was over zealous in my comments, but the stats are the stats. If they didnt post those super low way way below average WHIPs then I wouldnt be posting this, but they did and Ive had (thanks to Time Warner) a chance to see these kids and theyre pitching their azzes off and theyre hitting ball around 5th 3rd park like nobodys business. So basically Im just saying kudos to Krivsky. You think they suck I do not.

[osuceltic]

By the way...Zach Ward was a 22 year old in Dayton last season. 7-0, 2.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Dealt at the deadline for good ol' Kyle Lohse. Seems to be pitching pretty well in High A for Minny right now. He was moved to a relief role. 2.70 ERA.

And the odds remain long that Ward will ever be as good as Lohse. I say that was a good trade.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

And the odds remain long that Ward will ever be as good as Lohse. I say that was a good trade.

I'd rather have Ward's future than Lohse's present any day. The guy is a disaster and, even if Ward doesn't pan out, he wouldn't have cost $6-7 million for 1 1/3 years of mediocrity, at best.

[LoganBuck]

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=47064

Just wanted to post a link. Makes for some interesting reading, on the thoughts about last years draft real time.

[Eric_Davis]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I'd rather have Ward's future than Lohse's present any day. The guy is a disaster and, even if Ward doesn't pan out, he wouldn't have cost $6-7 million for 1 1/3 years of mediocrity, at best.

You can't have it both ways.

Either you can go with Elizardo Ramirez and keep Ward, or you can have the good second half last year and good April this year that Lohse has given us for a Low-A prospect.

There aren't starting pitchers hanging out on trees out there that you can just plunk off and stick into the starting lineup. You have to give up something. And Ward was clearly replaceable through the 2006 and 2007 draft.

[icehole3]

I agree every starter that has a decent record in our system isnt going to make the big club, thats reality. May as well trade them for usuable pieces along the way. It kills me when fans call GMs on the carpet for making a trade and then root for the guy traded, hoping one day he comes back to haunt us. Its nuts, major league teams trade their own every year we are no different than anyone else.