My own odd thoughts on Homer Bailey

[indy_dave00]

Personally the Reds keep saying Bailey isn't ready- say he needs to work more with his 3rd pitch. Just curious put yourself in Homer's place 21 year old 4-1 1.99 era wouldn't you in some way wonder if I need a 3rd pitch so bad-how am I succeeding here allowing barely 5 hits per every 9 innings ? While Livingston is 0-3 3.88 era and league is hitting .300 against is recalled twice-sorry thinking back a million years ago to when I was 21 and thought I knew it all.

If he pitches well again tonight maybe they should recall him and let him learn in the majors. As I remember Mario Soto and Jose Rijo were pretty successful with 2 pitches.

If Homer gets hammered up here perhaps it would cement in his head the need for that 3rd pitch. But if I'm 21 and rated in top 5 pitching prospects in all of baseball and very unhittable in AAA - I might be reluctant to use a 3rd pitch very often.

Just thinking back a million years to when I was 21 - tended to have to learn the hard way a little.

[dougdirt]

Homer knows that when he comes up, its going to be for good. Livingston has been back and forth now because of what he is.

[PuffyPig]

When Homers strikes out more guys and walks less, he will be ready.

Pitchers who let the ball be hit into play fail in Cincy.

Bailey needs to improve to be successful in Cincy.

[M2]

The problem with headstrong kids learning in the majors is that they have a bad habit of blowing out their arms.

Plus, Homer's problem isn't that he's only got two pitches. He's really only got one. His curve breaks, but he can't locate it. His changeup is still a long way off. Right now the organization can yank Homer when his mechanics get fiercely out of whack or when he tires and starts missing locations. It can protect him from beatings and excessive wear and tear. It can give him 10 days off when the situation calls for it.

Those things won't happen in the majors. There won't be any kid gloves for him. IMO, if the franchise is this cautious with him in AAA (and I'm all for it being this cautious) then the kid shouldn't be put on the spot for some horrific rippings in the majors.

Until he can go seven solid in AAA on a regular basis (and by that I mean for a three month stretch), he wouldn't get a taste of the majors if it were up to me. I know the franchise will pull the trigger long before that, but they aren't ready because you want/need them to be ready. Development takes a ridiculously long time. The Reds literally have nothing to lose at the moment so they can afford to show some patience.

[reds44]

Unless you have 2 amazing pitches, it's going to be very hard to suceed as a major league starting pitcher without a 3rd pitch. Ideally, you probably want a starter to have 4 pitches as it is.

Homer's not just having trouble throwing his secondary pitch for strikes, he is having issues with his fastball too.

"Let him learn at the majors" screams rushing him IMO. Everything I hear says he is making nice progress in Louisville, let him continue to learn down there.

I would not be surprised to see Wayne make a deal for a SP between now and Friday.

[HumnHilghtFreel]

Bringing him up now isn't going to save the Reds' season. There's no point, IMO to risk having him get beaten around in the majors when he doesn't need to. Let him continue to work on his pitches/location to get better in AAA.

Just my take, but I think a lot of people just want to have something to look forward to when watching the rest of this season.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by HumnHilghtFreel

Bringing him up now isn't going to save the Reds' season. There's no point, IMO to risk having him get beaten around in the majors when he doesn't need to. Let him continue to work on his pitches/location to get better in AAA.

Just my take, but I think a lot of people just want to have something to look forward to when watching the rest of this season.

Isn't there some merit to the argument that he should 'take his lumps' against the best competition? It seems to me that some teams have had success with this approach lately, bringing up very young prospects and letting them learn on the ML stage (Marlins, Tigers, to name a few). Is Homer significantly different than Bonderman when he was promoted? Much like parenting, doesn't it ultimately come to the character of the kid?

[AdamDunn]

Most importantly, Homer Bailey has never gone the distance. He doesn't throw his secondary pitches well enough to go long in his games. His outings consist of 5 innings and 8 strikeouts and no runs. But he racks up his pitching count because he can't throw strikes with his secondary stuff. If he can go deep into games in the minors, he won't go deep into games in the majors.

[membengal]

How do you know he doesn't throw his secondary pitches well enough to go deep? What do you know about what he's getting done at AAA? What is the red flag for you? His ridiculously low WHIP? The ridiculously low ERA? The last two starts of pure dominance?

You are knocking five innings of no runs? Seriously? That's something to be sad about now? I laugh. To keep from crying.

He is on a strict pitch count. Which he should be. That strict pitch count should continue even if he gets the call to the majors. Frankly, 100 pitches of the best Homer Bailey has is so far ahead of most of what this team throws out there in the majors on a regular basis that I find such panty-bunching laughable. If he "only" gets six innings per start in the majors? No big deal. Not if those six innings include only a few runs. I would take that in an instant.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by membengal

How do you know he doesn't he throw is secondary pitches well enough to go deep? What do you know about what he's getting done at AAA? What is the red flag for you?

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...t=58578&page=2


:fineprint

[membengal]

I don't read "icon" jojo. If you are asking why I didn't read that post in that thread before posting above, well, when I posted above that other post hadn't been written yet. And having now read it, I fully disagree with the take therein.

He's been asked to work on his changeup and curve. From what I understand, he has been. Predominantly. So, I would imagine, when he begins to mix the heater back in, his effectiveness will accelerate. All I am seeing is a guy with a dominant hits per nine at the age of 21 in AAA, accumulating such while not even throwing his best stuff.

Stop me when I get to something that isn't true.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by membengal

I don't read "icon" jojo. If you are asking why I didn't read that post in that thread before posting above, well, when I posted above that other post hadn't been written yet. And having now read it, I fully disagree with the take therein.

He's been asked to work on his changeup and curve. From what I understand, he has been. Predominantly. So, I would imagine, when he begins to mix the heater back in, his effectiveness will accelerate. All I am seeing is a guy with a dominant hits per nine at the age of 21 in AAA, accumulating such while not even throwing his best stuff.

Stop me when I get to something that isn't true.

You can imagine whatever you want to imagine. Please, just chart a few of his starts and poke around for opinions of people who are/have been close to him recently. We have different ideas about evaluating pitchers-thats obvious. A plus fastball will only get a major league starter so far....

[membengal]

So, I guess you will be ignoring his plus plus curve and the rapidly improving change-up then?

How his low hit per nine must annoy you...

[Red Leader]

Originally Posted by membengal

So, I guess you will be ignoring his plus plus curve and the rapidly improving change-up then?

How his low hit per nine must annoy you...

Having the talent to throw a good curve ball and the ability to throw a good curve ball to a major league hitter in a major league game are two totally different things. Think of it this way, if you're a pitcher and you're behind on a batter 3-0, 3-1, or 2-0, what pitch are you going to throw if you have command of one pitch, on/off command of a second pitch, and a third pitch that is not even major league average yet. Ummm, I'm guessing you're going to say the pitch you have command over. I would, too. And you know what? The hitter knows that as well. Homer's got to get to the point where he has major league command over more than just one pitch before they bring him up or he's going to get pounded on days where he doesn't have command of his curveball.

[dougdirt]

I agree with both Jojo and membengal on this one. How is that possible? I will tell you.

Jojo is right that for most of this season, Homer Bailey has struggled locating his offspeed stuff for strikes with any consistancy and that can both be seen in his numbers and just by watching him or talking to people who have.

Membengal is right that Homer has been fairly dominating as far as guys not being able to make much solid contact against him, which can also be seen by looking at his numbers.

Homer has been really good his last two starts, and this is where I think the two of you are wanting to disagree on. Jojo, I think wants to see it last a little longer and for Homer to have some sustainted success with his stuff before he is going to say that Homer is close to ready. Mem see's what Homer has done and is thinking that its all he needs to see because even before then his numbers were pretty good and now its looking so much better.

Guys feel free to tell me how wrong I am if I took what you said incorrectly.