Dominguez or Ahrens

[Bench Rules]

These two HS third baseman could be available when the Reds pick at 15 this year. I've read their scouting reports and watched their videos on Minorleaguebaseball.com. Can anyone give any insight on why Dominguez is rated higher by many sources but why it seems that the Reds would choose Ahrens? Ahrens switch hits and the write-up they have on him seems a little bit better than the one for Dominguez, but I'm no expert.

[M2]

I've yet to hear of anyone who rates Ahrens above Dominguez or even all that close to Dominguez.

If the Reds pick Ahrens with Dominguez still on the board you've got to think finances helped make the decision. Proof will be in the form of the signing bonus, both the amount and speed of the deal (it could be pre-arranged). Ahrens may turn out to be the better player, but Dominguez has got a great bat and would seem to be the poster boy for a more defensive-minded regime. My guess is Dominguez's tools grade out better than Ahrens across the board except for maybe in the power department.

[IslandRed]

I haven't read every projection or mock draft by any stretch, but the ones I have seem to think Dominguez will probably be off the board by 15.

I've yet to hear of anyone who rates Ahrens above Dominguez or even all that close to Dominguez.

Neither have I. But it's kind of like with college football recruiting; there's a lot of consensus-bubbling when it comes to comparing a California kid and a Texas kid. I wonder how many scouts have made a specific effort to scout both players.

[lollipopcurve]

I wonder how many scouts have made a specific effort to scout both players.

Excellent point, IR. My guess is that the Reds have seen plenty of both -- Dominguez goes to Chatsworth High -- the same high school that produced the Reds' most highly drafted high schooler from last year, Josh Ravin (I'm assuming Dominguez was also there last year).

[nmculbreth]

Originally Posted by IslandRed

I haven't read every projection or mock draft by any stretch, but the ones I have seem to think Dominguez will probably be off the board by 15.

Neither have I. But it's kind of like with college football recruiting; there's a lot of consensus-bubbling when it comes to comparing a California kid and a Texas kid. I wonder how many scouts have made a specific effort to scout both players.

I've seen some drafts where Dominguez is gone before #15 and others where he's still available so I think there is atleast a decent chance he's still available when the Reds pick.

I think the question about the number of scouts who have seen both players is a fair and interesting point. I'm not sure if the scouting services have any scouts / evaluators who have seen both Dominguez and Ahrens but I would hope that teams who plan on investing first round money would have cross-checkers who have seen both to make sure the club is getting the best player available at that position.

In regard to the initial post, I haven't seen anyone rate Ahrens ahead of Dominguez but it seems like their is a lot of speculation that the Reds are locked in on Ahrens. From the scouting reports I've read it seems that Ahrens might be the safer of the two because it seems like he has a more polished hitting approach while Dominguez might be in need of a bit of tweaking. On the flip side Dominguez seems to have better raw tools and a higher ceiling.

All things considered I don't hate the idea of drafting Ahrens but it does kind of have the feel of a financially based decision, particularly if some of the Boras-represented players fall in the draft.

[dougdirt]

I am with M2 on this one completely. If Dominguez is on the board and they go with Ahrens, I will probably be disappointed.

[Aronchis]

Dominguez looks like a current Reds FO type player. Defensive upside.

[IslandRed]

I'm also curious as to where the consensus is coming from about Ahrens and the Reds. Is it coming from people who have a habit of knowing inside information, or is it just guessing because he's a highly-rated Texas kid?

[nmculbreth]

Originally Posted by IslandRed

I'm also curious as to where the consensus is coming from about Ahrens and the Reds. Is it coming from people who have a habit of knowing inside information, or is it just guessing because he's a highly-rated Texas kid?

I'm curious too. Normally I wouldn't pay too much attention but last season there was a similar buzz about Stubbs and that's who the Reds ended up selecting.

[Aronchis]

Originally Posted by nmculbreth

I'm curious too. Normally I wouldn't pay too much attention but last season there was a similar buzz about Stubbs and that's who the Reds ended up selecting.

Yeah, but the choices were limited.

[Superdude]

What exactly does Dominguez have over Ahrens? Ahrens looks like a better athlete and (by all means correct me if I'm wrong) his swing looks better to me.

[NC Reds]

If these are my only two choices, then Dominguez.

I have a bias in this draft. I used to live in Idaho and I prefer Beau Mills (Lewis and Clark State College - Lewiston, Idaho) over both of them. He hit 38 homers (NAIA record) this year.

http://naia.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl...091905aab.html

I mistrust the NAIA level of play but he's got a ton of potential.

[LoganBuck]

Originally Posted by Superdude

What exactly does Dominguez have over Ahrens? Ahrens looks like a better athlete and (by all means correct me if I'm wrong) his swing looks better to me.

More established name recognition.

Dominguez has been on the radar alot longer. Ahrens is the unknown Johnny come lately. I don't know if you can accurately say that one is better than the other without seeing them both in person. Anything else is just hyperbole.

[jmcclain19]

Baseball Analysts Blog had a round table with Jim Callis, John Manuel, and Alan Matthews of Baseball America, and this is what they had to say about Dominguez, Aherns and the HS 3B crop

Rich: ... let's talk about a number of players by groups. There are four high school third basemen—or at least players who project to play the hot corner at the professional level—who could be drafted in the top half of the first round. Three of them are from California. One of them is Vitters, who we have talked about. The other two Californians are Moustakas, who Jim mentioned, and his Chatsworth HS teammate Matt Dominguez. The fourth is Kevin Ahrens out of Memorial HS in Houston, Texas. How would you rank these players, why, and are there natural fits for any or all of them?

Jim: Vitters and Moustakas are the cream of that crop, and they're also the two best high school hitters in this draft. Vitters is going to go in the top 3-4 picks as we've discussed, while projecting Moustakas is more dicey because he's advised by Scott Boras. Sounds like the Brewers aren't afraid of spending money on this draft, and I had them taking Moustakas in our mock draft, but Boras may try to send him to a team with more money. Dominguez is a very good defender, the best third-base defender in the draft since Ryan Zimmerman. His bat isn't as good as the other two guys, and I think he'll fit in the middle of the first round to someone like the Reds or Blue Jays. Ahrens, who draws a lot of Chipper Jones comps because he's a switch-hitter with power, projects more as a late first-rounder, but the Reds apparently have a lot of interest in him at No. 15. Don't be surprised if another Texas high school third baseman, Will Middlebrooks, sneaks into the end of the first round.

Alan: I’d rank Vitters 1, Moustakas 2, Dominguez 3 and Ahrens 4. Ahrens is pretty interesting. He has a nice stroke and fluid actions, with good body control on defense and he just does everything easily, which has as much to do with his comparisons to Jones as his profile. Dominguez has a lot of upside, and the only reason he’s not higher on the list is because of some things he does in his setup and swing mechanics that draw some red flags. But he can really mash. He doesn’t get to his power as often as Moustakas and Vitters right now, but he really launches balls when he connects.

Rich: I like Dominguez's upside, too. He hit two home runs at Dodger Stadium in championship high school games his sophomore and junior years, as well as one of four dingers with a wood bat in the Area Code Games at Blair Field last summer.

That entire post is a great draft primer for anyone interested

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives...ndtable_wi.php

[Patrick Bateman]

Does anyone know what Dominguez' plate discipline is like?

One thing IMO that makes Ahren's bat more certain is that he has a solid approach at the plate and is willing to draw walks. I haven't really come accross anything about Dominguez to make a valid comparison here (but I'm making the assumption that his discipline isn't fantastic).

I like the sounds of Ahren's bat, and I find it likely that he will develop into a solid, but not spectacular all around player. Dominguez has the top notch fielding and hitting skills which makes him very intriguing, even if he's a little less polished.

Overall, I find this to be a pretty tough call. I really like Ahren's bat, but I'm not sure if that beats the overall package of Dominguez. When it comes down to it, I find that both would be valid picks. I'd give the edge to Dominguez, but not by a lot.