Dominguez or Ahrens

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by M2

To give Ahrens credit he keeps rising. I'm a little wary of late climbers in the draft (has that much really changed in two months?), but clearly he's moving into mid first round status.

It makes you wonder, but considering that the last two months includes most of the senior season, that's a significant chunk of the total available information on a high-school kid.

Given the fact that everybody's had him pegged for the Reds for a few weeks you've got to figure the team has a verbal agreement with Ahrens (if you're there at 15, we'll pick you and you'll sign for $X). It would be hysterical if he got snagged before that.

On the flip side of that, I hope they've left themselves some wiggle room in case a clearly better player falls down the board that isn't an impossible sign.

[corkedbat]

I'm not as familiar with all of the prospects as some of you, but there are a couple of things I would like to see.

1) Value for the pick at 15

2) Someone who drops for signability issues at one of the comp picks (and sign them).

[osuceltic]

If the Reds pick Ahrens with Dominguez still on the board you've got to think finances helped make the decision.

Or maybe the Reds don't make their draft selections based on Baseball America.

I'm sorry, but these are two highly rated young baseball players. Who gives a flying fig how they're rated among the "media experts?" All that matters is how the Reds rate them.

[M2]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

Or maybe the Reds don't make their draft selections based on Baseball America.

I'm sorry, but these are two highly rated young baseball players. Who gives a flying fig how they're rated among the "media experts?" All that matters is how the Reds rate them.

Last I checked, no one's got Ahrens rated in front of Dominguez, not one source anywhere.

I'm cool with it if the Reds think otherwise, they'd just better be right.

And since Ahrens has been associated with the Reds' pick for quite some time (dating back to when he was a borderline first rounder) now you'd have to be pretty naive not to think signability is a factor here.

Signability picks can pan out. If Ahrens turns out to be an Adrian Gonzalez, kudos. If he turns out to be a Chad Mottola, enjoy your albatross necktie.

[jmcclain19]

Originally Posted by M2

Last I checked, no one's got Ahrens rated in front of Dominguez, not one source anywhere.

I'm cool with it if the Reds think otherwise, they'd just better be right.

And since Ahrens has been associated with the Reds' pick for quite some time (dating back to when he was a borderline first rounder) now you'd have to be pretty naive not to think signability is a factor here.

Signability picks can pan out. If Ahrens turns out to be an Adrian Gonzalez, kudos. If he turns out to be a Chad Mottola, enjoy your albatross necktie.

I think Aherns will be a fine major leaguer. And I don't have any issues whatsoever if the Reds take him. But I'm with you, I'd rather have Dominguez if the choice was between the two. Especially if it's money.

So my choices would be
1 - Wieters - Who likely could be there
2a - Dominguez
2b - Aherns

Aherns late skyrocketing doesn't bother me either. I think he comps well Jay Bruce in a number of ways in that regard. That excites me - as both were 3-5th round options in the early spring, and earned themselves several million with a monster last few months. He's worked out fine.

However, I also wonder because the Bruce parallels exist, they may be giving aspects of Aherns game a brush over that they wouldn't otherwise, given Bruce's ascension to super prospect-dom. Because it's certainly not a given that Aherns=Bruce part II.

[jmcclain19]

FYI - BA is saying tonight that Dominguez could go to Colorado at 8

[Mario-Rijo]

I have been on Dominguez for quite some time even up until today. However once I seen this question posed I went over to MLB.com and watched both videos, and what I saw was well......a bit interesting.

1st off Dominguez looks smooth as silk defensively speaking, he just seemingly glides around over there 3B.

Ahrens defensively seemed much more erratic with his throws. He's actually a SS by trade, but most scouts seem to agree he will be better at 3rd base or COF (I also listened to the draft preview show). He's much more raw than Dominguez but he looks like he could be just as good with some work.

Offensively Ahrens looked like he was very solid from both sides of the plate, there is a reason he draws comparisons to Chipper Jones. His bat seems faster than Dominguez to me, I think that is a huge checkmark for Ahrens.

Dominguez at the plate looks like he could be good. The tweak that everyone is talking about may be that his stance seems too wide which keeps him from keeping his timing down and therefore lunges at pitches often which then results in less power. If you watch the video you can see it pretty easily.

The bottom line is I think that Dominguez is more polished defensively and Ahrens offensively. Both have the ability to hit at an average to above rate. But Ahrens (based just on these limited clips) seemed to be the one with the higher ceiling, due to more athleticism, more explosion in his overall play.

So I am going with Ahrens now! However like I posted in another thread Terry Reynolds in 4 MLB drafts as Director of Player Development (3 with the Jays) has never selected a H.S. player as a 1st rd pick. Matt Laporta anyone?

[M2]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

So I am going with Ahrens now! However like I posted in another thread Terry Reynolds in 4 MLB drafts as Director of Player Development (3 with the Jays) has never selected a H.S. player as a 1st rd pick. Matt Laporta anyone?

Chris Buckley's the SD. Terry Reynolds has moved over to farm director.

Though I'm totally for Matt LaPorta.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by M2

Chris Buckley's the SD. Terry Reynolds has moved over to farm director.

Though I'm totally for Matt LaPorta.

Hmmm I did not know that, must have missed it. Does Buckley have any experience in this capacity? If so what does his resume look like in regards to the draft?

[M2]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Hmmm I did not know that, must have missed it. Does Buckley have any experience in this capacity? If so what does his resume look like in regards to the draft?

He was the Jays' SD from 2001-03.

Ryan came from the Dodgers system where he was SD from 1991-98.

[The_jbh]

I like Ahrens because he had success last summer in a wood bat league. He showed good power in that league which is a good indication that he will be a good hitter in pro ball...

I think what it comes down to is Ahrens is a safer picks where as Dominguez has a slightly higher ceiling but is a little riskier...

I agree with whoever commented that they only care what the Reds rate them as, not BA. I don't care who has said what at what websites... these are still amatuer scouts writing this stuff... its just like Mel Kiper and the NFL draft, the bengals got blasted for taking Levi Jones at 11 instead of where he was projected late 1st round, but now the bengals have a cornerstone tackle. I realize baseball is different but its the same type deal.

BA even says Ahrens will be a steal late in the 1st round a month ago in their draft issue and hes been rising since. If a guys is a steal in the first round wouldn't u think that would put him as a mid first rounder?

Either way I'll be happy with either guy... I don't think dominguez is going to be available ne ways going to colorado but w/e that would make this debate mute and ensure there is no Lincecum Stubbs thread for eternity...

both guys would be solid 1st rnd draft picks even tho i prefer Wieters if hes available...

I dont even think if dominguez is available id be too upset if they still take ahrens... its not necessarily $$, its taking a safer bet which is never a bad thing in regard to HS players in the first round of the draft

[HokieRed]

Finally got a chance to look at the videos today. Doesn't surprise me that Ahrens' stock is rising. I hope he's available at 15, no way he'll still be around at 34. Hard to tell much from the Dominguez fielding video. Ahrens stroke looks great, particularly from left side. I like his hand action better than Dominguez. I think he'll strike out significantly less, hit more line drives, maybe not have as much power. It's easy to see the Chipper Jones comparison, particularly from the left side.