Edwin - leadoff? 2hole?

[NorrisHopper30]

I've noticed since his recall Edwin has hit for less power than he used to last year, and I was wondering what everyone though of Edwin in the 1 or 2 spot on the lineup?

He's got his average up to .288 and is now 2nd in the team with average behind my boy Norris.

[pokeyfan]

Leave him where he can knock in baserunners. He is the only one we can count on at the moment to drive them in on a consistent basis.

[T7-niner]

Originally Posted by pokeyfan

Leave him where he can knock in baserunners. He is the only one we can count on at the moment to drive them in on a consistent basis.

What, you don't want to dethrone Mr. Castro from the 2 spot?

[reds44]

I wouldn't mind seeing Hatte/Hamilton and Edwin 1-2. Without looking up the numbers, I do agree with you that he is hitting for less power, but I do not think it is drastically less.

Let's look at the numbers.
Last year he had 406 ABs, this year he has 163. He had roughly 2.49 times the ABs. So, lets multiply this year's stats by 2.49 to match them up.

2006: 33 2B, 15 HR, 72 RBI
2007 (projected out to 406 Abs): 20 2B, 10 HR, 65 rbi

However, you also have to factor in he didn't hit for over the 1st month of the season. He is hitting for less power, but again not that much less if you take out the slow start.

I wouldn't mind seeing a lineup of:
Hatteberg
Edwin
Griffey
Hamilton
Phillips
Dunn
Gonzalez
Ross

You could hit him 2nd, 4th, or 5th. It really doesn't matter at this point.

[klw]

I think you are better with him lower in the lineup he is one of the few Reds hitting better with Runners on then with No one on. As I posted in the thread about the Reds RISP issues:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...t=58959&page=4

Player       OPS    OPS RISP 2 out   OPS RISP    OPS runners on    OPS none on  OBP NONE   OPS Late+close

KG Jr       .897       1.100            .877            1.036          .789      .331         .544

Dunn        .877        .620            .761             .819          .923      .371         .544

Hamilton    .870        .853            .768             .985          .809      .333         .718

Hatteberg   .846        .762            .665             .812          .872      .378        1.114

Gonzalez    .830        .299            .564             .679          .968      .379         .463

Phillips    .818        .842            .875             .808          .824      .331         .752

Hopper      .748        .629            .717             .688          .785      .340         .846

Conine      .745        .972            .858             .733          .751      .328         .459

EE          .736        .790            .912             .815          .674      .337         .414

Valentin    .708        .685            .943             .651          .751      .368         .900

Freel       .676        .733            .842             .855          .588      .265         .510

Ross        .593        1.078           .602             .658          .515      .269         .243


Reds        .751        .690            .711             .751          .752      .325         .594
Opponents   .765        .865            .844             .843          .705      .305         .843

Gonzalez, Dunn and Hamilton have all thrived in the 2 spot
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statis...getype=batting

Gonzalez and EE have both done will at 7th as has Hamilton in more limited sample
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statis...getype=batting

Production from the 5th spot has been poor though Phillips and Hamilton have done well in small samples. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statis...getype=batting

Freel has been ugly in the leadoff spot.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statis...getype=batting

The clean up spot has been outperformed with Jr doing far better in the 3 spot though Dunn has been okay in small sample.


Based on this my suggested lineup would be
Gonzalez
Hamilton
Griffey
Dunn
Phillips
Hatteberg/Conine
Encarnacion
Ross
Pitcher

[captainmorgan07]

i agree with KLW he is better in the 5 6 or 7 hole when there are men on base where he can knock them in. Right now he is our best hitter with runners in scoring position

[reds44]

Originally Posted by klw

I think you are better with him lower in the lineup he is one of the few Reds hitting better with Runners on then with No one on.

That's a good point. He was one of the (if not the) best player on the team last with RISP, and he is doing it again this year.

[dsmith421]

Wait, someone is seriously advocating batting Alex Gonzalez and his lifetime .294 on-base percentage leadoff?

[NorrisHopper30]

Originally Posted by dsmith421

Wait, someone is seriously advocating batting Alex Gonzalez and his lifetime .294 on-base percentage leadoff?

Beat me to it, keep him at 6 or 7 imo.

[klw]

Originally Posted by dsmith421

Wait, someone is seriously advocating batting Alex Gonzalez and his lifetime .294 on-base percentage leadoff?

Yes due to Gonzalez's OBP with no one on being .379. It is the situation in which he is thriving. As a comparison Freel's OBP in that situation is only .265. While Hopper and Hamilton have down well in small sample sizes in the leadoff role, Hamilton is better positioned elsewhere in the lineup and Hopper should be the 4th of with Hamilton back. Gonzalez has thrived in the 2d spot but so has Hamilton and Hamilton is better with Runners on than Gonzalez. I don't think you have Gonzalez lower because he has been awful this year in spots where there are RISP which he is more likely to find in 6 or 7. He has done well in the 7 spot but there really isn't a good leadoff alternative.

[dsmith421]

Originally Posted by klw

Yes due to OBP with no one on being .379. It is the situation in which he is thriving. As a comparison Freel's OBP in that situation is only .265.

You realize he's only guaranteed to bat with no one on once in the entire game, right? And that afterwards you're still dealing with a guy whose career on-base percentage is under .300, right?

Ideally, Alex Gonzalez would be nowhere near my favorite team's roster. If he must play for the Reds, bat him at the bottom of the order and hope his contact-driven OPS can net you a few RBIs.

[klw]

Originally Posted by dsmith421

You realize he's only guaranteed to bat with no one on once in the entire game, right? And that afterwards you're still dealing with a guy whose career on-base percentage is under .300, right?
.

Obviously but the odds of him coming up with runners on after the 8 spot and the pitcher are lower than if he is following the meat of the order. For example Freel has hit with RISP only 30 times out of 179 AB while Gonzalez has done so 47 times in 206 AB (second only to Dunn's 51). AG is only hitting .170 in that situation. I say try him up top and see how he does in the role. He has done well in the two spot.

[muethibp]

Originally Posted by klw

Obviously but the odds of him coming up with runners on after the 8 spot and the pitcher are lower than if he is following the meat of the order. For example Freel has hit with RISP only 30 times out of 179 AB while Gonzalez has done so 47 times in 206 AB (second only to Dunn's 51). AG is only hitting .170 in that situation. I say try him up top and see how he does in the role. He has done well in the two spot.

You're using small sample size number crunching in place of using your head.

[TC81190]

Originally Posted by dsmith421

You realize he's only guaranteed to bat with no one on once in the entire game, right? And that afterwards you're still dealing with a guy whose career on-base percentage is under .300, right?

Ideally, Alex Gonzalez would be nowhere near my favorite team's roster. If he must play for the Reds, bat him at the bottom of the order and hope his contact-driven OPS can net you a few RBIs.

OK, never mind the fact that he's near if not in the top 10 in the NL in HR, and 2nd for SS.

[nate]

Originally Posted by klw

For example Freel has hit with RISP only 30 times out of 179 AB while Gonzalez has done so 47 times in 206 AB (second only to Dunn's 51).

Just a tangent, I thought this was interesting because we always complain about lineup construction. Yet Jerry has managed to put our potentially biggest run driving threat (Dunn) in exactly the position he needs to be in to produce.

Maybe Jerry should make up his lineup and have someone switch Dunn and Griffey so Jr. can cash in on those opportunities...he seems to be pretty hot right now.